Small Craft Advisory 443, NWS Anchorage, AK

455 
FZAK52 PAFC 282246
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
246 PM AKDT SAT MAY 28 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-291200-
246 PM AKDT SAT MAY 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 994 MB LOW 150 NM WEST OF ATTU MOVES NEAR THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA LATE SUN. A 978 MB LOW 375 NM SOUTHWEST OF ADAK SUN
AFTERNOON MOVES TO NEAR ADAK AT 981 MB MON AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-291200-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
246 PM AKDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ155-291200-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
246 PM AKDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ160-291200-
BRISTOL BAY-
246 PM AKDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ165-291200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
246 PM AKDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ170-291200-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
246 PM AKDT SAT MAY 28 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ171-291200-
UNALASKA BAY-
246 PM AKDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-291200-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
246 PM AKDT SAT MAY 28 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ173-291200-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
246 PM AKDT SAT MAY 28 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ174-291200-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
246 PM AKDT SAT MAY 28 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ175-291200-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
246 PM AKDT SAT MAY 28 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ176-291200-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
246 PM AKDT SAT MAY 28 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ177-291200-
ADAK TO KISKA-
246 PM AKDT SAT MAY 28 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ178-291200-
KISKA TO ATTU-
246 PM AKDT SAT MAY 28 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ179-291200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
246 PM AKDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ180-291200-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
246 PM AKDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ181-291200-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
246 PM AKDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ185-291200-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
246 PM AKDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE 20 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
417 PM AKDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
An upper level ridge continues to encompass the Alaska mainland,
and is centered just north of the Kuskokwim Delta. With broad
northerly offshore flow occurring across Southcentral Alaska, and
offshore flow occurring near Southwest Mainland Alaska, clear
skies dominate the state. The one exception is Kodiak Island where
a light easterly flow has pushed a broad stratus deck inland to
Kodiak City today. A low centered in the western Bering is slowly
weakening but supporting a broad stratus deck. A new low is
developing just east of Kamchatka and following quickly on its
heels.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in better agreement today on the southwest progression
of an upper level wave into eastern Mainland Alaska Saturday into
Sunday. However...there is still a lot of difference in run to run
consistency on how quickly it progresses westward. As a result,
today models are indicating that convection may initiate much
farther west, and impact the Alaska and Aleutian Ranges as early
as Sunday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Strong upper level ridging centered over the Y-K Delta along with
northerly flow aloft remains the dominant weather mode across
southern alaska this afternoon. Expect a similar repeat Saturday
with slightly warmer temperatures inland and moderate sea breezes
along the coast. Low stratus and coastal fog near Kodiak Island
will remain a threat mainly in the overnight and morning periods.

In the late afternoon and evening Saturday, a shortwave trough
will move into the far eastern portion of southern Alaska, and
this will increase northerly winds across the Susitna Valley and
Copper Basin. Outflow winds will also increase along the coast
into the Northern Gulf across favored gaps. An isolated
thunderstorm is also possible across the eastern Copper Basin,
especially along and near the Wrangell Mountains.

On Sunday, the shortwave trough will amplify and move west, with
slightly cooler temperatures and increasing chances for afternoon
and evening showers. Isolated thunderstorms will remain a threat
across the Copper Basin, with that threat spreading westward to
the Talkeetna Mountains. Instability driven showers will also
become a threat across the Kenai Mountains, Chugach Mountains,
and the higher terrain of Kodiak Island.

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
Ridging over the southwest will continue to bring sunny skies with
warming temperatures through this weekend, especially to interior
areas along the Kuskokwim River. Along with dry conditions, subsidence
from this ridge will prevent any showers from forming throughout
the region until Saturday afternoon/evening when they should begin
to develop along the Alaska Range. These showers will then redevelop,
and may even strengthen enough to bring some lightning strikes to
the Alaska/Aleutian ranges on Sunday. For the rest of the area,
conditions will remain dry with some of the warmest air of the
season as temperatures rise well into the 70s. Offshore flow will
also develop on Saturday as the ridge axis slides to the north,
bringing gusty winds to the area during the afternoon/evening
hours on Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
The weather throughout the region will remain fairly quiet through
the weekend. A series of upper level disturbances moving through
the aleutians will bring rains through Saturday morning before
dissipating over the North Pacific, but with winds remaining below
small craft. A stronger and more organized north pacific low will
then move into the western/central Aleutians on Sunday, which may
approach gale force and bring rain to the area into next week.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Models are in agreement that a thermal trough draped south of the
Alaska range will make some thunder activity possible. This will
be localized west of the Alaska and Aleutian ranges and near the
Wrangells Sunday evening. On Monday the decaying thermal trough
drifts west, and the possibility of thunder continues west of the
ranges and then also over the Kenai peninsula. By Tuesday upper
support for convection begins to weaken as high pressure builds
over Mainland Alaska, with only some shower activity expected
through the week.

For the Bering Sea region, a low near the central Aleutians will
bring at least small craft winds and a chance of rain to the area
Monday night into Tuesday. From that point models begin to diverge
and an ensemble WPC solution was used. This moves the low north of
the chain where it slowly weakens through midweek, with rain
becoming less likely through that time.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER...Red Flag Watch 145.
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...en
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ja
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...dek
LONG TERM...ds