Alert archive / Alaska / Gale Warnings in 2016

Gale Warning 389, NWS Anchorage, AK

May 28, 2016

NWS Anchorage, AK issued this gale warning at May 28, 2016, 2:43 PM AKDT. It was in force for 61 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
May 28, 2016, 2:43 PM AKDT (22:43 UTC)
Expired
May 31, 2016, 3:37 AM AKDT
In force
61 hr
Issued by
NWS Anchorage, AK

The text

As transmitted.

919 
FZAK62 PAFC 282243
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
243 PM AKDT SAT MAY 28 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-291245-
243 PM AKDT SAT MAY 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 994 MB LOW NEAR 53N 169E MOVES NEAR THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA LATE
SUN. A 978 MB LOW NEAR 47N 177E SUN AFTERNOON MOVES TO 52N 177W AT
981 MB MON AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-291245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
243 PM AKDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ412-291245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
243 PM AKDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ413-291245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
243 PM AKDT SAT MAY 28 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ414-291245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
243 PM AKDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$
5 follow-up statements
510 
FZAK62 PAFC 291148
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
348 AM AKDT SUN MAY 29 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-300200-
348 AM AKDT SUN MAY 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 994 MB LOW NEAR 56N 169E WEAKENS AS IT MOVES TO NEAR THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA LATE SUN BEFORE DISSIPATING. A 983 MB LOW
NEAR 46N 165E LATE SUN MORNING MOVES TO 51N 174W LATE MON
MORNING...THEN MOVES TO 52N 175W MON NIGHT WHILE MAINTAINING
STRENGTH.

$$

PKZ411-300200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
348 AM AKDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ412-300200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
348 AM AKDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ413-300200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
348 AM AKDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ414-300200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
348 AM AKDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$
086 
FZAK62 PAFC 292318
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
318 PM AKDT SUN MAY 29 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-301315-
318 PM AKDT SUN MAY 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A FRONT OVER THE WESTERN BERING DISSIPATES BY MON AFTERNOON. A 977
MB LOW NEAR 48N 178E MOVES TO 51N 172W AT 987 MB MON
AFTERNOON...THEN MOVES TO 53N 174W TUE AFTERNOON WHILE
MAINTAINING STRENGTH.

$$

PKZ411-301315-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
318 PM AKDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ412-301315-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
318 PM AKDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.MON...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ413-301315-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
318 PM AKDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ414-301315-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
318 PM AKDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.

$$
130 
FZAK62 PAFC 301144
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
344 AM AKDT MON MAY 30 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-310200-
344 AM AKDT MON MAY 30 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 977 MB LOW NEAR 50N 174W STRENGTHENS TO 981 MB NEAR 53N 171W
MON NIGHT...THEN WEAKENS TO 991 MB THROUGH TUE NIGHT WHILE
REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY.

$$

PKZ411-310200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
344 AM AKDT MON MAY 30 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING 10 TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ412-310200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
344 AM AKDT MON MAY 30 2016

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ413-310200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
344 AM AKDT MON MAY 30 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ414-310200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
344 AM AKDT MON MAY 30 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.

$$
658 
FZAK62 PAFC 302301
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
301 PM AKDT MON MAY 30 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-311330-
301 PM AKDT MON MAY 30 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 986 MB LOW NEAR 52N 170W MOVES TO 53N 171W AT 987 MB TUE
AFTERNOON...THEN MOVES TO 52N 169W AT 995 MB WED AFTERNOON. A 1006
MB LOW NEAR 61N 165W RACES WESTWARD TO NEAR THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH BY TUE MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-311330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
301 PM AKDT MON MAY 30 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING 10 TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
TO 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.

$$

PKZ412-311330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
301 PM AKDT MON MAY 30 2016

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.

$$

PKZ413-311330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
301 PM AKDT MON MAY 30 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ414-311330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
301 PM AKDT MON MAY 30 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 40 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$
501 
FZAK62 PAFC 311137
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
337 AM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-010215-
337 AM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 982 MB LOW NEAR 53N 170W REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TUE
NIGHT WHILE WEAKENING TO 991 MB...THEN MOVES INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC NEAR 49N 167W THROUGH WED NIGHT WHILE WEAKENING TO 997 MB.

$$

PKZ411-010215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
337 AM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING UP TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.

$$

PKZ412-010215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
337 AM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ413-010215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
337 AM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ414-010215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
337 AM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at May 28, 5:17 AM AKDT, 9 hours 26 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 28, 5:17 AM AKDT, 9 hours 26 minutes before
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
517 AM AKDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A mid-level cut-off high continues to encompass the Alaska
mainland, and is centered over Unalakleet. With broad northerly
mid-level offshore flow occurring across Southcentral Alaska, a
lee trough has formed just inland along the North Gulf Coast and
is pushing toward the northern Gulf. To the south of this
boundary, which includes the vast majority of North Gulf Coast
locations and points south, a light onshore flow has developed
that has resulted in widespread low stratus and fog overnight.
Outside of the coastal clouds and fog, mostly clear skies dominate
much of the southern part of the state.

Out west, a weather front is currently pushing into the Western
Aleutians that will move into the western Bering and Central
Aleutians through tonight before washing out. Another weak low and
associated front southwest of Dutch Harbor is pushing slowly west
toward the Central Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in better agreement today on the southwest progression
of an upper level wave into the eastern mainland of Alaska
today into Sunday. However, there is still a lot of difference in
how quickly it progresses westward. This will play a significant
role in the evolution of fire weather hazards and the potential
location and timing of possible thunderstorms as we progress
through the remainder of the long holiday weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

The southern progression of an upper level wave, and diurnal
forcing of a thermal trough will help to increase winds across
both the Susitna and Matanuska Valleys Saturday evening. There is
uncertainty in the intensity of these winds as well as the timing
as to whether these winds will coincide with peak diurnal heating.
Sunday looks more promising with stronger winds as the upper level
northerly jet moves into a more favorable position. For Southwest
Alaska, confidence is fairly high in reaching Red Flag conditions
for inland areas of the Kuskokwim Delta and Middle Kuskokwim
Valley. However, any future warnings issued for these Southwest
locations will be contingent on whether fuels are deemed to be
burnable or not.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)..

An upper level high over Western Alaska and a trough over Western
Canada continues northerly flow across much of Southcentral
Alaska today. Northerly gap flows continue across the Copper
River Basin and over the Susitna Valley through Sunday afternoon.
Temperatures across the region are expected to be fairly warm
again today with many inland areas in the 70s. The Susitna Valley
will likely be pushing 80 degrees in a few spots. Cooler air
spreads west across the Copper River Basin Sunday with an upper
disturbance and increased cloud cover and should tend to damper
inland temps. However, inland areas west of the Copper River
Basin will have afternoon highs in the 70s. Cooler temperatures
are expected along the coasts with afternoon and evening sea
breezes through Sunday.

The upper short wave undercutting the mainland ridge on Sunday
will spread shower activity across much of Southcentral by Sunday
evening. Thunderstorm potential will also spread west with the
Copper River Basin and Talkeetna mountains the favored locations
Sunday.

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Ridging over the southwest will continue to bring sunny skies with
warming temperatures through this weekend, especially to interior
areas along the Kuskokwim River. Along with dry conditions, subsidence
from this ridge will prevent any showers from forming throughout
the region until this afternoon/evening when they should begin to
develop along the Alaska Range. These showers will then redevelop,
and may even strengthen enough to bring some lightning strikes to
the Alaska/Aleutian ranges Sunday afternoon/evening. For the rest
of the area, conditions will remain dry with some of the warmest
air of the season as temperatures rise well into the 70s. Offshore
flow will also develop on Saturday as the ridge axis slides to the
north, bringing gusty winds to the area during the afternoon and
evening hours on Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

The weather throughout the region will remain fairly quiet through
the weekend. A series of upper level disturbances moving through
the Aleutians will bring rains through Saturday morning before
dissipating over the North Pacific, but with winds remaining below
small craft. A stronger and more organized North Pacific low will
clip the Western Aleutians Sunday evening, then move into the
Central Aleutians/Bering by early Monday morning. This system is
expected to produce steady rainfall over the area, and bring gale
force gusts to the Central Aleutians/Bering Sunday night into
Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Models are in agreement that a thermal trough draped south of the
Alaska range will make some thunder activity possible. On Monday
the decaying thermal trough drifts west, and the possibility of
thunder continues west of the ranges and then also over the Kenai
peninsula. By Tuesday upper support for convection begins to
weaken as high pressure builds over mainland AK, with only some
shower activity expected through the week.

For the Bering, a low near the central Aleutians will bring at
least small craft or gale-force winds and a chance of rain to the
area Monday night into Tuesday. From that point models begin to
diverge and an ensemble WPC solution was used. This moves the low
north of the chain where it slowly weakens through midweek, with
rain becoming less likely through that time.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...FIRE WEATHER WATCH...145.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CC
FIRE WEATHER...CC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...DS/CC

The office that day

Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 28, 3:14 AM AKDTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC12 hr
May 28, 6:53 AM AKDTFire Weather WatchAFC9 hr
May 28, 7:27 AM AKDTRed Flag WarningAFC39 hr
May 28, 2:46 PM AKDTGale WarningAFC48 hr
May 28, 2:46 PM AKDTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC13 hr
May 28, 3:54 PM AKDTRed Flag WarningAFC29 hr

Nearby

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2016Every gale warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.