Small Craft Advisory 412, NWS Anchorage, AK

477 
FZAK51 PAFC 191133
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
333 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-200100-
333 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL TRACK TO 115 NM SOUTHWEST OF SITKINAK AT
998 MB BY FRI EVENING. AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL ENTER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST BY FRI EVENING.

$$

PKZ119-200100-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
333 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ120-200100-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
333 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ121-200100-
RESURRECTION BAY-
333 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TODAY...N WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-200100-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
333 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-200100-
PORT VALDEZ-
333 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-200100-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
333 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-200100-
VALDEZ ARM-
333 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-200100-
PASSAGE CANAL-
333 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-200100-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
333 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ131-200100-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
333 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ132-200100-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
333 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ136-200100-
CHINIAK BAY-
333 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-200100-
MARMOT BAY-
333 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-200100-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
333 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ139-200100-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
333 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ140-200100-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
333 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-200100-
KACHEMAK BAY-
333 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

390 
FZAK51 PAFC 192326
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
326 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-201200-
326 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL TRACK TO 150 NM SOUTHWEST OF SITKINAK AT
997 MB BY FRI AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN TO 1011MB BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AS IT MOVES TO MIDDLETON ISLAND. AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL
ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE TO THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST BY FRI EVENING.

$$

PKZ119-201200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
326 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ120-201200-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
326 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ121-201200-
RESURRECTION BAY-
326 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-201200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
326 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-201200-
PORT VALDEZ-
326 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-201200-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
326 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-201200-
VALDEZ ARM-
326 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-201200-
PASSAGE CANAL-
326 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-201200-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
326 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT BUILDING TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ131-201200-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
326 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-201200-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
326 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ136-201200-
CHINIAK BAY-
326 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-201200-
MARMOT BAY-
326 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-201200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
326 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ139-201200-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
326 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ140-201200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
326 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-201200-
KACHEMAK BAY-
326 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

182 
FZAK51 PAFC 201153
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
353 AM AKDT FRI MAY 20 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-210045-
353 AM AKDT FRI MAY 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A FRONT IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF LATER
THIS MORNING. A SECOND FRONT ENTERS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF FRI
AFTERNOON AND MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF LATE FRI NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF LATE SAT NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-210045-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
353 AM AKDT FRI MAY 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ120-210045-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
353 AM AKDT FRI MAY 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ121-210045-
RESURRECTION BAY-
353 AM AKDT FRI MAY 20 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT...SEAS HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-210045-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
353 AM AKDT FRI MAY 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS
BUILDING TO 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-210045-
PORT VALDEZ-
353 AM AKDT FRI MAY 20 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-210045-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
353 AM AKDT FRI MAY 20 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-210045-
VALDEZ ARM-
353 AM AKDT FRI MAY 20 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-210045-
PASSAGE CANAL-
353 AM AKDT FRI MAY 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS 4
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-210045-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
353 AM AKDT FRI MAY 20 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ131-210045-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
353 AM AKDT FRI MAY 20 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-210045-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
353 AM AKDT FRI MAY 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ136-210045-
CHINIAK BAY-
353 AM AKDT FRI MAY 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-210045-
MARMOT BAY-
353 AM AKDT FRI MAY 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-210045-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
353 AM AKDT FRI MAY 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-210045-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
353 AM AKDT FRI MAY 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-210045-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
353 AM AKDT FRI MAY 20 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-210045-
KACHEMAK BAY-
353 AM AKDT FRI MAY 20 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
457 AM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Three different upper level lows are spread out over the area
bringing rain to the Southcentral and Southwest Alaska. One is
near Norton Sound and is beginning to merge with another low over
the Central Bering. The third low is over the Eastern Gulf and is
tracking to the southeast. Between the Gulf low and the merging
lows, high pressure is building in over the Western Gulf.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
In the short term the models are in good agreement, but there are
some discrepancies moving into the mid term. One issue is with a
North Pacific low moving towards the AK Pen on Thursday. The EC
has a much weaker solution resulting in much weaker winds. There
are also differences with the timing of this system which has an
impact on when the winds will get to the AK Pen and then to the
Western Gulf and Kodiak Island.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
One final weak wave associated with the upper low over Western
Alaska will track northward across Cook Inlet and the Susitna
Valley today. There is a weak warm front in the low levels
resulting in some isentropic lift which often results in
stratiform precipitation. In this case the low levels remain
weakly unstable as seen in the 12Z Anchorage sounding and as
indicated by the cellular nature of returns on the Kenai radar.
Thus, expect isolated to scattered showers from the Western Kenai
to Anchorage and the Mat-Su. Southerly flow will provide extra
lift and more numerous showers across the northern Susitna Valley.
Abundant low level moisture will maintain overcast skies and cool
temperatures through this corridor.

Elsewhere across Southcentral a ridge will build northward from
the Gulf leading to breaking up of some of the clouds. The tail
end of a short-wave currently over the northern Susitna Valley
will round the top of the building ridge and aid with convective
initiation along the Alaska Range and Northern Copper River
Basin. This may be just enough help to form a thunderstorm or two
so introduced a slight chance for this afternoon and evening
mainly along the eastern Alaska Range.

Meanwhile, an amplifying trough/ridge couplet over the North
Central Pacific will lead to a strong upper jet driving toward
Mainland Alaska tonight through Thursday. As would be expected,
lots of warm and moist air will flow northward to the Gulf and
eventually to Southcentral. However, with large differences in
model guidance with regard to the fundamental structure of
surface features and low level flow forecast confidence is low, so
stuck with inherited forecast for now. Lastly, prior to arrival of
the deeper moisture, the upper jet streak and embedded waves will
interact with a still weakly unstable air mass over Southcentral
Thursday afternoon. Therefore, increased showers coverage
especially right out ahead of it along the Cook Inlet to Susitna
Valley corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The southwest mainland will transition to a broad onshore flow
pattern today as an upper low near Norton Sound retrogrades
offshore and merges with another low over the north-central
Bering. This will help to further stabilize the air mass over the
Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay regions, with morning showers
tapering off as cooler marine influenced air is advected over the
mainland. The exception will be across the Lower Kuskokwim Valley,
where the potential for isolated thunderstorm activity will linger
into the afternoon as relatively clear skies early in the day
allow for a little more surface heating and generation of modest
instability. Convective potential should completely subside by
tonight as onshore flow continues. Thursday will bring the
potential for steadier stratiform rain lasting into Friday as an
upper level wave and surface front over the North Pacific move
towards the area, aided by strong dynamic support in the form of
a sw-ne oriented 130 knot jet streak pointed towards bristol bay.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Weak shower activity will continue across the central Bering as a
pair of upper waves consolidate into a large upper low which will
remain over the northern half of the Bering through Thursday
night. Otherwise, the bulk of the activity will be focused along
the Alaska Peninsula as the complex system over the North Pacific
slides northeastward towards the area. Meanwhile, the Western
Bering will remain in a benign regime dominated by low stratus and
fog.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Starting in the Thursday night through Friday evening time
frame, a vertically stacked North Pacific low will begin to track
up the western flank of the ridge setting up over the Gulf,
pushing the ridge further eastward over the eastern Gulf. The
first in a series of fronts associated with the weakening North
Pacific low will track northward through the gulf and into the
northern Gulf coast by early Friday morning. This will bring
steady rain to the areas surrounding the northern gulf coast and
parts of the southern mainland Friday, with the exception of some
initial downsloping keeping conditions slightly drier on the lee
side of the Chugach and Kenai mountains. A second wave of
precipitation quickly follows behind this system bringing another
round of steady rain to much of the southern mainland through
Saturday. Models continue to struggle with the timing of these
systems, being slower than expected with the overall track of the
fronts as they track along the aleutian range and progress
northward through the gulf and southern mainland. The NAM was the
closest solution regarding the timing, but was lacking with the
precipitation amounts compared to the global models.

Meanwhile, the Bering Sea and Aleutians will stay clear of
significant large-scale weather systems through the middle of next
week. The only exception will be the eastern Bering/Aleutians and
Alaska Peninsula that will receive some winds and rainfall from
the above mentioned systems tracking in from the North pacific
Thursday through Saturday. In general, this means the area will
experience typical warm-season conditions such as calm winds,
widespread low-clouds, and some foggy conditions over the bering
and southwest coast. The models are slowly coming into better
agreement with a fairly strong ridge building northward over the
eastern Bering/Aleutians and southwestern mainland over the
weekend, then shifting and strengthening over the Central and
Eastern Bering/Aleutians and into the beginning by Tuesday.
However, given the continued model differences regarding these
systems and overall pattern, forecast confidence remains low
through out the long term.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...dk
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...seb
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...cb
LONG TERM...tp