Small Craft Advisory 411, NWS Anchorage, AK

345 
FZAK51 PAFC 182313
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
313 PM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-191230-
313 PM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1013 MB LOW 100 NM SOUTH OF SITKA WILL EXIT TO THE NORTH
PACIFIC TONIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT WILL ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
THU AFTERNOON AND MOVE TO THE CENTRAL GULF BY LATE THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-191230-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
313 PM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ120-191230-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
313 PM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ121-191230-
RESURRECTION BAY-
313 PM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-191230-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
313 PM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-191230-
PORT VALDEZ-
313 PM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-191230-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
313 PM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-191230-
VALDEZ ARM-
313 PM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-191230-
PASSAGE CANAL-
313 PM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-191230-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
313 PM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ131-191230-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
313 PM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ132-191230-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
313 PM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ136-191230-
CHINIAK BAY-
313 PM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW WIND 10 KT IN THE
EVENING. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-191230-
MARMOT BAY-
313 PM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W WIND 15 KT IN THE LATE
EVENING. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-191230-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
313 PM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ139-191230-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
313 PM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ140-191230-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
313 PM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-191230-
KACHEMAK BAY-
313 PM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

477 
FZAK51 PAFC 191133
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
333 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-200100-
333 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL TRACK TO 115 NM SOUTHWEST OF SITKINAK AT
998 MB BY FRI EVENING. AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL ENTER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST BY FRI EVENING.

$$

PKZ119-200100-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
333 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ120-200100-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
333 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ121-200100-
RESURRECTION BAY-
333 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TODAY...N WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-200100-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
333 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-200100-
PORT VALDEZ-
333 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-200100-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
333 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-200100-
VALDEZ ARM-
333 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-200100-
PASSAGE CANAL-
333 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-200100-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
333 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ131-200100-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
333 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ132-200100-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
333 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ136-200100-
CHINIAK BAY-
333 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-200100-
MARMOT BAY-
333 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-200100-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
333 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ139-200100-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
333 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ140-200100-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
333 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-200100-
KACHEMAK BAY-
333 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

390 
FZAK51 PAFC 192326
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
326 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-201200-
326 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL TRACK TO 150 NM SOUTHWEST OF SITKINAK AT
997 MB BY FRI AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN TO 1011MB BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AS IT MOVES TO MIDDLETON ISLAND. AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL
ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE TO THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST BY FRI EVENING.

$$

PKZ119-201200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
326 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ120-201200-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
326 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ121-201200-
RESURRECTION BAY-
326 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-201200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
326 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-201200-
PORT VALDEZ-
326 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-201200-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
326 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-201200-
VALDEZ ARM-
326 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-201200-
PASSAGE CANAL-
326 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-201200-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
326 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT BUILDING TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ131-201200-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
326 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-201200-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
326 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ136-201200-
CHINIAK BAY-
326 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-201200-
MARMOT BAY-
326 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-201200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
326 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ139-201200-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
326 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ140-201200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
326 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-201200-
KACHEMAK BAY-
326 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
452 PM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The main upper level features affecting the forecast area this
morning are three upper level lows: one in the Gulf of Alaska, one
moving southwestward from the northern Interior, and one over the
Bering Sea. Between the Interior low and the Gulf of Alaska low, a
weak deformation area has set up over Southcental Alaska, bringing
cloudy and cool conditions over the bulk of the state. The upper
level clouds are moving ahead of the core of the northern Interior
low, leaving a brief area of clearing behind before the lower
level clouds form as the surface heats directly behind the front.
This low is expected to bring some instability to the southwest
and a few convective pockets can be seen in the midlevel clouds
ahead of the main front.

In the Southcentral area and Copper River Basin, the deformation
area aloft is lending its way to instability at the surface.
However, this is not an extremely dynamic system so any
precipitation currently falling is mostly showers over the
mountain ranges. Precipitation is not heavy, nor is it expected to
continue to be heavy as these showers form.

Out west over the Bering Sea and the Aleutians, the synoptic
situation is surprisingly stable. Very weak flow aloft means that
the area is mostly affected by the surface high currently west of
Alaskan waters, so little weather is happening at the moment, save
for some persistent marine stratus across the entire area.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Although the models are good agreement on the placement of the
upper level features, they are having difficulty resolving the
weather features at the surface between the two low pressure
system. This mainly applies to the precipitation expected to move
into southcentral tonight and tomorrow. With a weak low moving
into the area and southwesterly flow, precipitation is expected
more along the Eastern Susitna Valley. The forecast was updated
with this conceptual model in mind. In the west models are in good
agreement and the NAM was used to create the forecast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Conditions are expected to become less active over the next couple
of days as the low moves in from the north and an accompanying
surface trough passes across the southern portion of the state.
Fire weather conditions have already abated somewhat from
yesterday for Southcentral and will continue to be calm for the
next couple of days. A brief period of clearing on Thursday may
dry things out and warm them up somewhat, but a trough approaching
Thursday night and Friday should bring RHs back up and
temperatures back down. The timing of this feature is still
uncertain, however. In the west, thunderstorms are expected today
ahead of the Interior low in Bristol Bay, but by tomorrow
conditions should stabilize and any precipitation will be
stratiform in nature -- with little chance for lightning strikes.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The low currently in the Gulf of Alaska will continue to push
east towards the panhandle. Meanwhile, the low over the interior
will slide into southwest mainland. A weak quasi- stationary front
will remain situated along the western edge of Cook Inlet with
showers mainly in the Susitna Valley. With little movement of this
front expected, confidence is lower for showers in the Kenai
Peninsula, Anchorage and Matanuska Valley.

By Wednesday, the front across the Southwest is expected to
dissipate and high pressure will begin to build across the state.
This will allow for drier conditions and less clouds that will
last into Thursday.

By Thursday afternoon a new front will enter the southwestern
Gulf and begin moving northward. In response to this next front a
coastal ridge will develop and winds will shift to onshore winds
through favored gaps.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

An upper level wave pushing southwestward has resulted in
widespread showers this afternoon across southern portions of the
Kuskokwim Delta...and northern portions of Bristol Bay.
However...persistent cloud cover has resulted in cooler
temperatures today and more stable conditions. As a result...While
convection has been widespread, lightning activity has been much
more limited today than yesterday across the region. While showers
are expected to linger along the Ahklun Mountains and Alaska
Range Wednesday morning, high pressure will continue to build in
Wednesday afternoon and support a relatively dry day. A low
pressure system will approach the region from the southwest on
Thursday...and bring steady light rain by Thursday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A broad ridge continues to bring widespread fog and stratus to
much of the Aleutians. By Wednesday afternoon a low pressure
system moves into the central Gulf and brings widespread light
showers to the Aleutians.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Starting in the Thursday night through Friday evening time
frame, a vertically stacked North Pacific low will begin to track
up the western flank of the ridge setting up over the Gulf,
pushing the ridge further eastward over the eastern Gulf. The
first in a series of fronts associated with the weakening North
Pacific low will track northward through the gulf and into the
northern Gulf coast by early Friday morning. This will bring
steady rain to the areas surrounding the northern gulf coast and
parts of the southern mainland Friday, with the exception of some
initial downsloping keeping conditions slightly drier on the lee
side of the Chugach and Kenai mountains. A second wave of
precipitation quickly follows behind this system bringing another
round of steady rain to much of the southern mainland through
Saturday. Models continue to struggle with the timing of these
systems, being slower than expected with the overall track of the
fronts as they track along the aleutian range and progress
northward through the gulf and southern mainland. The NAM was the
closest solution regarding the timing, but was lacking with the
precipitation amounts compared to the global models.

Meanwhile, the Bering Sea and Aleutians will stay clear of
significant large-scale weather systems through the middle of next
week. The only exception will be the eastern Bering/Aleutians and
Alaska Peninsula that will receive some winds and rainfall from
the above mentioned systems tracking in from the North pacific
Thursday through Saturday. In general, this means the area will
experience typical warm-seasons conditions such as calm winds,
widespread low-clouds, and some foggy conditions over the bering
and southwest coast. The models are slowly coming into better
agreement with a fairly strong ridge building northward over the
eastern Bering/Aleutians and southwestern mainland over the
weekend, then shifting and strengthening over the Central and
Eastern Bering/Aleutians and into the beginning by Tuesday.
However, given the continued model differences regarding these
systems and overall pattern, forecast confidence remains low
through out the long term.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...LF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...LIW
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...EN
LONG TERM...TP