Small Craft Advisory 410, NWS Anchorage, AK

244 
FZAK51 PAFC 181119
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
319 AM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-190045-
319 AM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1003 MB LOW 215 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT WILL EXIT TO THE NORTH
PACIFIC WED NIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT WILL ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF THU AFTERNOON AND MOVE TO THE CENTRAL GULF BY THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-190045-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
319 AM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 FT EXCEPT 4 FT NEAR THE COAST.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ120-190045-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
319 AM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 8 FT EXCEPT 3 FT NEAR THE COAST.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ121-190045-
RESURRECTION BAY-
319 AM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-190045-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
319 AM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-190045-
PORT VALDEZ-
319 AM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-190045-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
319 AM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT BY MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-190045-
VALDEZ ARM-
319 AM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-190045-
PASSAGE CANAL-
319 AM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-190045-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
319 AM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ131-190045-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
319 AM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ132-190045-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
319 AM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ136-190045-
CHINIAK BAY-
319 AM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING 
VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-190045-
MARMOT BAY-
319 AM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-190045-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
319 AM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ139-190045-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
319 AM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-190045-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
319 AM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-190045-
KACHEMAK BAY-
319 AM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

345 
FZAK51 PAFC 182313
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
313 PM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-191230-
313 PM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1013 MB LOW 100 NM SOUTH OF SITKA WILL EXIT TO THE NORTH
PACIFIC TONIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT WILL ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
THU AFTERNOON AND MOVE TO THE CENTRAL GULF BY LATE THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-191230-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
313 PM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ120-191230-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
313 PM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ121-191230-
RESURRECTION BAY-
313 PM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-191230-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
313 PM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-191230-
PORT VALDEZ-
313 PM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-191230-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
313 PM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-191230-
VALDEZ ARM-
313 PM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-191230-
PASSAGE CANAL-
313 PM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-191230-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
313 PM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ131-191230-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
313 PM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ132-191230-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
313 PM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ136-191230-
CHINIAK BAY-
313 PM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW WIND 10 KT IN THE
EVENING. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-191230-
MARMOT BAY-
313 PM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W WIND 15 KT IN THE LATE
EVENING. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-191230-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
313 PM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ139-191230-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
313 PM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ140-191230-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
313 PM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-191230-
KACHEMAK BAY-
313 PM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

477 
FZAK51 PAFC 191133
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
333 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-200100-
333 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL TRACK TO 115 NM SOUTHWEST OF SITKINAK AT
998 MB BY FRI EVENING. AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL ENTER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST BY FRI EVENING.

$$

PKZ119-200100-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
333 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ120-200100-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
333 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ121-200100-
RESURRECTION BAY-
333 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TODAY...N WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-200100-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
333 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-200100-
PORT VALDEZ-
333 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-200100-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
333 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-200100-
VALDEZ ARM-
333 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-200100-
PASSAGE CANAL-
333 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-200100-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
333 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ131-200100-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
333 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ132-200100-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
333 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ136-200100-
CHINIAK BAY-
333 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-200100-
MARMOT BAY-
333 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-200100-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
333 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ139-200100-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
333 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ140-200100-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
333 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-200100-
KACHEMAK BAY-
333 AM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
516 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The ridge along the northern gulf coast has weakened during the
overnight and early morning hours which has allowed gusty winds
across gaps and passes across Southcentral Alaska to weaken. The
ridge is expected to dissipate early this morning which will bring
an end to any lingering gusts. It's been a bit of a surprise to
see some shower activity across Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley
this morning but it seems the models are poorly handling a diffuse
shortwave moving through the area. Very little rainfall has been
observed with these showers as the atmosphere has quite a bit of
dry air entrenched within. However, as the rain has fallen through
the column, the dry air is slowly replaced by more saturated air
which has steadily been lowering the cloud bases and allowed for
some light rainfall accumulations across the Matanuska Valley.

Water vapor imagery this morning shows a weak shortwave pushing
across the Lower Kuskokwim Valley and Kuskokwim Delta which has
allowed shower activity to continue well into the overnight/morning
hours. This shortwave has slowly been pushing south and new
showers have been forming ahead of the wave due to the synoptic
lift associated with this feature. The Bering Sea is well
entrenched with a marine layer characterized by low stratus and
fog. Several channels of IR imagery and the last visible images
from Monday night show this expansive marine layer which has be
brought ceiling anywhere from 500 to 1500 feet to many of the
observation sites.

Looking at the synoptic pattern, a longwave trough extends from
the Kamchatka Peninsula all the way to the Alaska Panhandle.
Multiple closed lows have anchored this longwave trough and very
little change in this pattern has been observed over the past
several days. One thing of note is that a an upper level low over
the interior has dropped south, significant cooling at the 850 mb
level has been observed which has begun to drop temperatures
across Southcentral Alaska and should begin cooling things down
across Southwest Alaska today.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in great agreement overall but are struggling with
a few small features this morning. The first feature was mentioned
in the section above and comes in the form of a shortwave moving
across the Matanuska Valley and Anchorage. Models have actually
progged this feature pretty well but they are struggling with how
quickly the column has saturated from precipitation falling
through it. The shortwave is expected to diminish this morning and
bring an end to the showers. The second feature was also mentioned
above and comes in the form of a shortwave moving across Southwest
Alaska. Timing amongst the NAM and GFS with this feature is
anywhere from 3 to 6 hours different which will create some issues
for some scattered shower activity expected over Dillingham and
King Salmon. The 00Z and 06Z NAM appear to have initialized this
feature better than the GFS so it was utilized through much of the
forecast package.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Much cooler and cloudier conditions along with lighter winds are
on tap for Southcentral Alaska today. The region is situated
between a cold upper level low digging southwestward across the
interior and a large vertically stacked low moving from the
northeast Pacific into the Gulf of Alaska. Opposing flow between
the systems has led to development of a deformation band across
the Copper River Basin, Talkeetna Mountains, and into the Mat-Su.
Showers or light rain are largely focused along this deformation
band. As the low continues into the eastern Gulf today and the
interior low digs into western Alaska the deformation band will
be pushed westward spreading rain across the Talkeetna mountains
into the northern Susitna Valley. The track of the Gulf low will
keep the bulk of wind and rain offshore. Thus, aside from areas
of rain over some inland areas the region will be mostly dry with
just a few showers.

For tonight into Wednesday morning the situation becomes a little
more complicated as the deformation weakens and a series of
short-waves rounding the western Alaska low rotate through Cook
Inlet and the Mat-Su. The highest likelihood for rain will be
across the Susitna Valley which will receive the bulk of lift
from these short-waves aided by southerly upslope flow. However,
there is a chance of rain at the tail end of the short-waves from
the Western Kenai Peninsula to Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley.
Because of the complexity of this set-up forecast confidence for
rainfall is low.

Expect most precip to come to an end Wednesday afternoon through
Wednesday night as both storm systems exit and a ridge builds in.
With decreasing clouds and a relatively cool air mass some inland
valleys will likely see some chilly temperatures early Thursday
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Fairly widespread convection will continue across the southwest
mainland today but will be somewhat different in character from
the previous days as the bulk of the thunderstorm activity shifts
from the Lower Kuskokwim Valley to the eastern Kuskokwim Delta and
interior portions of Bristol Bay. Convection is expected to be
less dependent on diurnal heating than in recent days as a closed
upper low retrograding across the yukon delta provides additional
forcing and also helps to steepen mid level lapse rates as colder
air moves in aloft. This will support convective initiation prior
to peak afternoon heating and will also allow a few thunderstorms
to possibly linger well into the overnight hours across interior
Bristol Bay. Convective activity should begin to diminish by
Wednesday as the upper low pushes into the Bering and onshore
flow advects a more stable air mass over the region. However, a
few additional thunderstorms cannot be ruled out across the
Kuskokwim Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Low stratus and fog will continue to dominate much of the eastern
half of the Bering through tonight within a region of weak flow
aloft and at the surface. Farther west, an upper low dropping
into the central Bering will provide a focus for weak shower
activity late tonight into Wednesday. A weak North Pacific low
will then approach the Alaska Peninsula and Eastern Aleutians on
Wednesday night, bringing a chance for steadier rain to the
southeast Bering.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The extended models are slowly coming into better agreement as
another fairly impressive ridge of high pressure builds northward
from the Pacific and into southern Alaska. The exact position of
the ridge axis will be critical to the positioning of clouds and
rainfall (to the west of the ridge axis), and the ridge axis
position is largely a function of how far east in the Bering Sea
the stationary upper low sets up shop early in the week. It looks
increasingly likely that this ridge axis will be located in the
vicinity of the Copper River Basin and ALCAN border. This means
that cloud-cover will be on the increase across Southwest and
Southcentral Alaska on Thursday, with widespread rain working
northeastward through the western gulf and Kodiak island thursday,
and into the northern gulf coast and parts of southcentral by
Friday morning. This will be followed by a second wave of
precipitation on saturday as well. Temperatures will moderate from
recent record highs, but the bigger driver of possibly significant
cooling will be the increasing influence of a low-level maritime
air mass working into upper Cook Inlet and the Mat-Su Valleys.

Meanwhile, the Bering Sea and Aleutians will stay clear of
significant large-scale weather systems for the next week. The
only exception will be the eastern Bering/Aleutians that will
receive some winds and rainfall from a northward-moving low and
weather front Thursday through late friday night. In general,
this means the area will experience typical warm-seasons
conditions such as calm winds, widespread low-clouds, and some
foggy conditions over the bering and southwest coast.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning 119.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
LONG TERM...TP