Gale Warning 406, NWS Anchorage, AK

630 
FZAK51 PAFC 171845 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1045 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-180315-
1045 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 993 MB LOW 350 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL MOVE TO 
200 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT AT 1002 MB TUE NIGHT...THEN TO 115 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SITKA AT 1012 MB BY WED AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING
JUST OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WED NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-180315-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
1045 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  SEAS
11 FT. NEAR THE COAST...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.  SEAS
10 FT EXCEPT 4 FT NEAR THE COAST. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ120-180315-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
1045 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 10 FT. NEAR THE COAST...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT EXCEPT 4 FT NEAR THE COAST. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ121-180315-
RESURRECTION BAY-
1045 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON.  SEAS 2 FT.  
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE  LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT  IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT.  
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-180315-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
1045 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT  IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT  IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-180315-
PORT VALDEZ-
1045 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT  IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE  LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT  IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-180315-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
1045 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-180315-
VALDEZ ARM-
1045 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-180315-
PASSAGE CANAL-
1045 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.  SEAS
1 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-180315-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
1045 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ131-180315-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
1045 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ132-180315-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
1045 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  SEAS
7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ136-180315-
CHINIAK BAY-
1045 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO NW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.  SEAS
2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ137-180315-
MARMOT BAY-
1045 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  SEAS
3 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.  SEAS
2 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ138-180315-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
1045 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT SHIFTING TO SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT AND WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ139-180315-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
1045 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON.  SEAS
3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT DURING THE EVENING.  SEAS
BUILDING TO 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-180315-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
1045 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT  IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ141-180315-
KACHEMAK BAY-
1045 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT  BY
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

194 
FZAK51 PAFC 172312
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
312 PM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-181145-
312 PM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 997 MB LOW 240 NM SOUTHWEST OF YAKUTAT WILL MOVE 90 NM SOUTHWEST
OF SITKA AT 1012 MB WED AFTERNOON...THEN EXITS INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC BY WED NIGHT. A NEW FRONT WILL ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
BY THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-181145-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
312 PM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ120-181145-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
312 PM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ121-181145-
RESURRECTION BAY-
312 PM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-181145-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
312 PM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-181145-
PORT VALDEZ-
312 PM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-181145-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
312 PM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-181145-
VALDEZ ARM-
312 PM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-181145-
PASSAGE CANAL-
312 PM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-181145-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
312 PM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ131-181145-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
312 PM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ132-181145-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
312 PM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ136-181145-
CHINIAK BAY-
312 PM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-181145-
MARMOT BAY-
312 PM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-181145-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
312 PM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ139-181145-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
312 PM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT SUBSIDING.
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-181145-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
312 PM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-181145-
KACHEMAK BAY-
312 PM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
450 PM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The Alaska and Bering region weather map depicts an increasing
number of mid- and upper-level lows and their associated
disturbances. This signals a pattern change toward cooler and
cloudier conditions for much of southern Alaska. The largest such
feature is a low well south of Kodiak which is pushing a fairly
potent disturbance toward the northern and western Gulf coast this
afternoon. The stable marine layer ahead of this feature has
brought low stratus from Kodiak north to Prince William Sound
through this afternoon. This feature has also allowed for the
building of a surface ridge along the northern Gulf coast,
resulting in gusty southeast winds through the gaps of the Chugach
Range into parts of Anchorage.

To the north, an cut-off mid-level low is in the process of
forming over the central part of the state from a narrow trough
that is becoming impinged by ridging on both the northwest and
southeast sides. Over the Bering, another mid-level low is nearly
stationary over the north-central Bering.

At the surface, a weak north-south front continues to slowly
diminish roughly along the 170 W longitude line. Meanwhile, over
southwest Alaska, a surface trough continues to move west across
southwest Alaska and into Bristol Bay ahead of the aforementioned
disturbance associated with the mid-level low south of Kodiak.
This surface feature will continue to be the focus mechanism for
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over southwest Alaska
through this evening.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Overall, forecast confidence in the synoptic features remains
above normal due to the excellent model agreement. The devil is in
the details as a lot depends on interactions between the mid- to
upper-level lows that will determine exactly which areas see the
best chances of rain, showers, and thunderstorms. A blend of high
resolution data (the NAM and GEM Regional) was used with the
forecast package.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Many of the rivers and streams around Southcentral Alaska have
seen water levels rise significantly as the recent heatwave
kicked snow-melt in the mountains into high gear. In fact, based
on available observed snow pack data, most of the mountain ranges
in the area have lost about 6 inches of snow-water equivalent in
the past 7 days. The rivers are responding as if we were
receiving the better part of an inch of rain each day for 7
straight days. With lowering freezing levels and cooler
temperatures expected to begin moving into the area for the start
of the week, these elevated river levels will begin to moderate
back to typical spring levels. No flooding is anticipated.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A North Pacific low will continue to move into the Gulf of
Alaska, pushing a weak front onshore. In response a coastal ridge
has built and has reached its peak strength and will weaken
through the night. This will allow for a continuation of gap
winds through Turnagain Arm and Knik Arm through tonight as well
as gusty winds in Anchorage before diminishing by morning. As the
front continues to push northward, a trough over the interior will
be pushing southward. This will create an area of deformation
centered over western Copper River Basin and Susitna Valley. This
will allow for rain and showers to develop through Tuesday. By
Wednesday the trough will slide southwest while the front
dissipates and the shower threat will push out of the Copper River
Basin and into the Susitna Valley. Confidence for showers is
lower for the Matanuska Valley and Anchorage as these areas will
be under the influence of downsloping winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Diurnal convection has already fired up this afternoon across
much of western Kuskokwim Valley...and the Kilbuck and Ahklun
mountains in the Kuskokwim Delta. As this convection is primarily
forced by diurnal heating...shower and thunderstorm coverage is
expected to slowly diminish throughout the evening. On
Tuesday...another round of thunderstorms are expected to develop
as an upper level low pushes southwestward from interior Alaska.
This low is relatively cool aloft and lapse rates and instability
are expected to increase throughout the morning across the
southwest mainland. As a result...convection is expected to begin
before mid-morning and before diurnal heating has reached its
maximum. Models currently indicate that the greatest chance for
thunderstorms on Tuesday is across the Ahklun and Alaska Mountains
of the Bristol Bay area and Kuskokwim Valley and Delta areas.
However, there is still some uncertainty in timing and location of
first thunderstorm initiation. &&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Relatively weak broad northerly flow will persist across much of
the Bering Sea and Aleutians. As a result, stratus and fog will
continue to dominate the area.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The extended models are slowly coming into some better agreement
as another fairly impressive ridge of high pressure that builds
northward from the Pacific and into southern Alaska. The exact
position of the ridge axis will be critical to the positioning of
clouds and rainfall (to the west of the ridge axis), and the ridge
axis position is largely a function of how far east in the Bering
Sea the stationary upper low sets up shop early in the week. It
looks increasingly likely that this ridge axis will be located in
the vicinity of the Copper River Basin and ALCAN border. This
means that cloud-cover will be on the increase across Southwest
and Southcentral Alaska on Thursday, with widespread rain working
northeastward through the western gulf and Kodiak island thursday,
and into the northern gulf coast and parts of southcentral by
Friday morning. This will be followed by a second wave of
precipitation on saturday as well. Temperatures will moderate from
recent record highs, but the bigger driver of possibly significant
cooling will be the increasing influence of a low-level maritime
air mass working into upper Cook Inlet and the Mat-Su Valleys.

Meanwhile, the Bering Sea and Aleutians will stay clear of
significant large-scale weather systems for the next week. The
only exception will be the eastern Bering/Aleutians that will
receive some winds and rainfall from a northward-moving low and
weather front Thursday through late friday night. In general,
this means the area will experience typical warm-seasons
conditions such as calm winds, widespread low-clouds, and some
foggy conditions over the bering and southwest coast.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...LIW
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...EN
LONG TERM...TP