Small Craft Advisory 343, NWS Anchorage, AK

524 
FZAK52 PAFC 211155
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
355 AM AKDT THU APR 21 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-220030-
355 AM AKDT THU APR 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 992 MB LOW 125 NM WEST OF SAINT PAUL MOVES INTO THE FAR WESTERN
BERING BY LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS 50 NM EAST OF DUTCH
HARBOR THIS MORNING...AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY AS IT WEAKENS
THROUGH FRI. A 988 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO 175 NM SOUTH OF
ADAK LATE FRI NIGHT. A FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN BERING
LATE FRI NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-220030-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
355 AM AKDT THU APR 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ155-220030-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
355 AM AKDT THU APR 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT EXCEPT E 30 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS
E. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ160-220030-
BRISTOL BAY-
355 AM AKDT THU APR 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ165-220030-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
355 AM AKDT THU APR 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ170-220030-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
355 AM AKDT THU APR 21 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ171-220030-
UNALASKA BAY-
355 AM AKDT THU APR 21 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ172-220030-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
355 AM AKDT THU APR 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ173-220030-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
355 AM AKDT THU APR 21 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ174-220030-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
355 AM AKDT THU APR 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ175-220030-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
355 AM AKDT THU APR 21 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ176-220030-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
355 AM AKDT THU APR 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ177-220030-
ADAK TO KISKA-
355 AM AKDT THU APR 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT 15 KT BERING SIDE. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT 15 KT BERING SIDE. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT 10 KT BERING SIDE. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ178-220030-
KISKA TO ATTU-
355 AM AKDT THU APR 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT 15 KT BERING SIDE. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ179-220030-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
355 AM AKDT THU APR 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ180-220030-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
355 AM AKDT THU APR 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ181-220030-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
355 AM AKDT THU APR 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ185-220030-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
355 AM AKDT THU APR 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.

$$

396 
FZAK52 PAFC 212300
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
300 PM AKDT THU APR 21 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-221145-
300 PM AKDT THU APR 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 992 MB LOW 80 NM EAST OF DUTCH HARBOR MOVES 210 NM NORTHWEST
OF DUTCH HARBOR AT 995 MB FRI NIGHT AND DISSIPATES. A 1000 MB
NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES 300 NM SOUTHWEST OF ADAK AT 990 MB FRI
AFTERNOON...THEN MOVES 90 NM SOUTHEAST OF ADAK AT 987 MB SAT
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-221145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
300 PM AKDT THU APR 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ155-221145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
300 PM AKDT THU APR 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT EXCEPT E 30 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS
E. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT EXCEPT E 20 KT E OF THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS.
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ160-221145-
BRISTOL BAY-
300 PM AKDT THU APR 21 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ165-221145-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
300 PM AKDT THU APR 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ170-221145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
300 PM AKDT THU APR 21 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ171-221145-
UNALASKA BAY-
300 PM AKDT THU APR 21 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-221145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
300 PM AKDT THU APR 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ173-221145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
300 PM AKDT THU APR 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ174-221145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
300 PM AKDT THU APR 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ175-221145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
300 PM AKDT THU APR 21 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ176-221145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
300 PM AKDT THU APR 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ177-221145-
ADAK TO KISKA-
300 PM AKDT THU APR 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ178-221145-
KISKA TO ATTU-
300 PM AKDT THU APR 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ179-221145-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
300 PM AKDT THU APR 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ180-221145-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
300 PM AKDT THU APR 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ181-221145-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
300 PM AKDT THU APR 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ185-221145-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
300 PM AKDT THU APR 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
513 AM AKDT WED APR 20 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
ONE LOOK AT THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TELLS THE STORY OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS ALASKA. A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH STRETCHES
FROM THE EASTERN BERING INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. EAST OF THIS
TROUGH...RIDGING FROM THE CONTINENTAL WEST COAST CONTINUES TO
NUDGE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF MAINLAND AK. THIS IS MUCH THE SAME
PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN FOR THE BETTER PART OF A MONTH NOW. THE
NET EFFECT WILL SEEM VERY SIMILAR...OCCASIONAL WET CONDITIONS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AK AND COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST MAINLAND LOCATIONS.

A SMALL FEATURE WE ARE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS MORNING IS A
DEVELOPING LOW SOUTH OF COLD BAY. MODELS DID NOT RESOLVE THIS
FEATURE WELL ON MONDAY...BUT ARE NOW IN FAIRLY SOLID AGREEMENT.
THEY ALL SHOW WINDS INCREASING MARKEDLY IN THE CORRIDOR FROM SAND
POINT THROUGH COLD BAY THIS MORNING. WE INCORPORATED THIS INTO THE
GOING FORECAST AND WILL BE MONITORING OBSERVATION TRENDS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
IN THIS RELATIVELY "STAGNANT" PATTERN...SYNOPTIC-SCALE FEATURES
ARE RATHER SLOW TO CHANGE. THIS HAS ALLOWED MODELS TO HANDLE THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN RATHER WELL. MOST OF THE CHANGES ARE IN DEALING
WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND SMALLER DISTURBANCES. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...THE LOW APPROACHING COLD BAY IS ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE.
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS WERE USED TO NUDGE WINDS UPWARD SOMEWHAT
WITH IT. IN THE EAST...MINOR UPDATES WERE MADE WITH THE GFS IN
THE FIRST 48 HOURS AND THEN WITH THE ECMWF AFTER THAT. THERE WERE
VERY FEW CHANGES FROM FRI MORNING ONWARD AS MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF A CLOSED SURFACE LOW TRACKING INTO
THE SOUTHERN GULF. IT LOOKS LIKE A VERY SIMILAR SET-UP TO MANY OF
THE FRONTS WE HAVE SEEN PUSH INTO THE GULF COAST WITH A MODEST
BARRIER JET AND HEAVIER RAIN. IT IS JUST TOO EARLY TO NAIL DOWN
THE TIMING AND EXACT LOCATION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE WEATHER FRONT OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA WILL DRIFT WEST AND
WEAKEN TODAY. THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT WILL CROSS KODIAK ISLAND
TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA FROM THE EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN A DRY
AND RATHER WARM AIR MASS. HIGH TEMPERATURES AT MANY LOCATIONS ON
THURSDAY COULD BE TEN OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A TROUGH
RIDING UP THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE GULF COAST AND EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2...WED AND THU)...
A DECAYING FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL
MAKE FOR PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IN THE MORNING...BUT WE SHOULD
START TO SEE SOME BREAKS BY THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL ALSO KEEP THE
SOUTHEAST WINDS BLOWING FOR MANY LOCATIONS SUCH AS ILIAMNA AND
SPARREVOHN. IN SPOTS WHERE THE WIND HAS EASED OVERNIGHT...EXPECT
SOME GUSTS TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SUN HELPS TO MIX
HIGHER WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WEAK INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT COULD ALSO HELP PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR THE ALASKA PENINSULA...STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
MORE MODERATE RAIN WILL DEFINITELY FAVOR THE PACIFIC SIDE.

THU...THE MAINLAND SHOULD START TO SEE A DRYING TREND AS HIGHER
PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE EAST. MEANWHILE...WET AND GUSTY
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR THE AKPEN AS ANOTHER SMALL LOW
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2...WED AND
THU)...THE BROAD TROUGH WILL KEEP WEAK COUNTER-CLOCKWISE FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS THE DOMAIN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAK LOWS
FORMING NEAR THE AKPEN WILL THEN DRIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS THEY
FALL APART. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SMALL CRAFT
LEVEL WINDS IN THE FORECAST. THE STRONGER SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE 300MB JET STREAM WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CHAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE PAINTS A SIMILAR PICTURE OF THE LONG-WAVE
PATTERN WITH A PERSISTENT TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC/ALEUTIANS
OVER INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH RIDGING FROM WESTERN CANADA
INTO THE NORTHERN MAINLAND OF ALASKA. HOWEVER THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING OF INDIVIDUAL FEATURES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH. THUS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE STARTS OUT ABOUT
AVERAGE AND QUICKLY FALLS TO LOW.

ONE NOTABLE COMMONALITY IN ALL THE SOLUTIONS IS FOR A SERIES OF
ROBUST LOWS/SHORT-WAVES TO PUSH THE RIDGE A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND
EAST THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER TO THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING RAIN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. A CONTINUATION OF GENERALLY SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
STILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED DRYING ON THE NORTH TO WEST SIDE OF
MOUNTAIN RANGES...BUT EXPECT A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THESE AREAS
AS FEATURES MOVE THROUGH. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...
THIS GENERAL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE... GALE WARNINGS 155 414.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES 120 130 131 132 136 137 138 139
150 160 165 170 172 174 176 177 178 179 180 181 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...SB