Gale Warning 319, NWS Anchorage, AK

528 
FZAK62 PAFC 202306
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
306 PM AKDT WED APR 20 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-211400-
306 PM AKDT WED APR 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 989 MB LOW NEAR 55N 168W WILL TRACK TO 58N 177E THU AFTERNOON
AT 992 MB...THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST BERING SEA ON
FRI. A 993 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR 51N 159W WED NIGHT THEN MOVE
TO 54N 164W THU AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL THEN REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AS IT WEAKENS THROUGH FRI.


$$

PKZ411-211400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
306 PM AKDT WED APR 20 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND TO 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND TO 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ412-211400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
306 PM AKDT WED APR 20 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT...EXCEPT SW WIND UP TO 15 KT S OF 57N.
SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE WIND 10 KT S OF
57N. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT. RAIN MAINLY N OF 57N.
.FRI...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ413-211400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
306 PM AKDT WED APR 20 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.THU...W WIND 10 TO 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.

$$

PKZ414-211400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
306 PM AKDT WED APR 20 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. S OF 56N...VARIABLE WIND UP TO 15
KT EARLY BECOMING W UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT...EXCEPT W WIND UP TO 15 KT S OF THE
PRIBILOFS. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT...EXCEPT W WIND 10 TO 15 KT S OF
56N. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT...EXCEPT W 10 TO 20 KT S OF 56N. SEAS
4 TO 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE TO NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.

$$

920 
FZAK62 PAFC 211148
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
348 AM AKDT THU APR 21 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-220130-
348 AM AKDT THU APR 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 992 MB LOW NEAR 57N 174W MOVES INTO THE FAR WESTERN BERING BY
LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS NEAR 54N 165W THIS
MORNING...AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY AS IT WEAKENS THROUGH FRI.
A 988 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO 49N 177W LATE FRI NIGHT. A
FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN BERING LATE FRI NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-220130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
348 AM AKDT THU APR 21 2016

.TODAY...NW TO NE WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ412-220130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
348 AM AKDT THU APR 21 2016

.TODAY...NE TO SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ413-220130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
348 AM AKDT THU APR 21 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ414-220130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
348 AM AKDT THU APR 21 2016

.TODAY...E TO SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
419 PM AKDT TUE APR 19 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE BERING
SEA WITH GENERAL RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
WEST COAST AND UP INTO MAINLAND ALASKA. THIS IS SETTING THE STAGE
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE STATE TO SEE CONTINUED SOUTHEAST FLOW. A
WEATHER FRONT OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND KODIAK ISLAND IS
SLOWLY MAKING NORTHWARD PROGRESS BUT WILL BE STALLING TONIGHT.
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER FROM BRISTOL BAY TO
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND INTO MOST OF THE COOK INLET AREA ARE THE
MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS FRONT AS THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS ARE KNOCKING
OUT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE TYPICAL UPSLOPE AREAS.
MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MAKING A NEAR- APPROACH TO THE
COASTLINE OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND IS HELPING TO PRODUCE A
LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF RAIN IN THAT AREA...THOUGH EVEN THIS
WILL BE ON THE DECLINE BY TONIGHT.

FURTHER WEST...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAK THERMAL ADVECTION DOMINATE
ACROSS THE BERING SEA. SO WHILE CLOUDINESS AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED
WEATHER ARE WIDESPREAD THE WEATHER PATTERN AS A WHOLE IS FAIRLY
BENIGN FOR THIS PART OF THE WORLD.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...AND ALL DEPICT NO
FUNDAMENTAL PATTERN SHIFTS IN THE NEAR FUTURE. A 175 KT JET STREAK
WILL CARRY A SHORTWAVE AROUND THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
TONIGHT AND WILL RESULT IN A NEW LOW SPINNING UP SOUTH OF THE
ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THERE IS A PIECE OF ENERGY
THAT SPLITS OFF FROM THIS FEATURE AND RACES NORTHWARD INTO THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH. WHILE THERE IS VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
FOR THIS FEATURE ALL MODELS DO DEPICT A SURFACE LOW SPINNING UP
AND CROSSING THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THE NAM/GFS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE
MOVING THIS REMNANT LOW UP TOWARD THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF IS WEAKER AND SLOWER. GIVEN THE WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THE WEAKER ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS ARE FAVORED BY
THE WESTERN DOMAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. THE MAIN IMPACT
FROM THIS MODEL DISCREPANCY WILL BE TO PROLONG THE GUSTY WINDS IN
THE PRIBILOFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

GUSTY WINDS WILL BE REACHING PEAK INTENSITY THROUGH GAPS ALONG
TURNAGAIN ARM...PORTAGE VALLEY...THE KNIK RIVER VALLEY AND COPPER
RIVER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE
REGION BEGIN TO WEAKEN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE
REGION ON THE DRY SIDE. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPRESS DIURNAL
CONVECTION AS IT HELPS STABILIZE THE MID-LEVELS BY GRADUALLY
WARMING THE MID-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE. THIS HAS BEEN OBSERVED ON
THE PAST 3 RAOB SOUNDING FROM PANC. SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER
WILL BE OBSERVED ON THURSDAY WITH DECENT SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING IN
THE WAKE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. IN THE MEANTIME...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS OVER KODIAK
ISLAND. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE EASTERN KENAI
PENINSULA TONIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES EASTWARD BUT RAIN
CHANCES WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT RETREATS TO
THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

STALLED REMNANTS OF A WEATHER FRONT PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ALASKA...AND WILL BRING RAIN MAINLY TO UPSLOPE AND INLAND AREAS
OF BRISTOL BAY AND WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
ALASKA...THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE
NORTH AND EAST WILL HELP PUSH THIS FRONT TOWARD THE COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING A CLEARING AND DRYING
TREND WITH LESS WIND ESPECIALLY TO INLAND AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

WITH BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BERING THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN
WILL BE CYCLONIC WITH WESTERLY WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE
ALEUTIANS...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN BERING...WITH A FAIRLY STRONG YET
STATIONARY WEATHER FRONT DELINEATING THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE
WESTERLY WINDS AND EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE OUT EAST WHERE THE MAJORITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE. THIS PATTERN WILL BE VERY STAGNANT WITH
WIDESPREAD RAINY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN ALASKA
PENINSULA AND PRIBILOF ISLANDS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE PAINTS A SIMILAR PICTURE OF THE LONG-WAVE
PATTERN WITH A PERSISTENT TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC/ALEUTIANS
OVER INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH RIDGING FROM WESTERN CANADA
INTO THE NORTHERN MAINLAND OF ALASKA. HOWEVER THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING OF INDIVIDUAL FEATURES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH. THUS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE STARTS OUT ABOUT
AVERAGE AND QUICKLY FALLS TO LOW.

ONE NOTABLE COMMONALITY IN ALL THE SOLUTIONS IS FOR A SERIES OF
ROBUST LOWS/SHORT-WAVES TO PUSH THE RIDGE A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND
EAST THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER TO THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING RAIN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. A CONTINUATION OF GENERALLY SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
STILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED DRYING ON THE NORTH TO WEST SIDE OF
MOUNTAIN RANGES...BUT EXPECT A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THESE AREAS
AS FEATURES MOVE THROUGH. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...
THIS GENERAL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNINGS 130 155.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CC
LONG TERM...SB