Small Craft Advisory 335, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Apr 17, 2016, 2:55 PM AKDT (22:55 UTC)

Expired

Apr 18, 2016, 3:30 AM AKDT

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

242 
FZAK51 PAFC 172255
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
255 PM AKDT SUN APR 17 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-181130-
255 PM AKDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1010 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTHWEST OF YAKUTAT WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER
YAKUTAT AND DISSIPATE MON AFTERNOON. A FRONT ENTERS THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF ALASKA TUE MORNING AND MOVES OVER SOUTHERN
KODIAK ISLAND WED MORNING.

$$

PKZ119-181130-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
255 PM AKDT SUN APR 17 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ120-181130-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
255 PM AKDT SUN APR 17 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 20 KT.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ121-181130-
RESURRECTION BAY-
255 PM AKDT SUN APR 17 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-181130-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
255 PM AKDT SUN APR 17 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-181130-
PORT VALDEZ-
255 PM AKDT SUN APR 17 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-181130-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
255 PM AKDT SUN APR 17 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-181130-
VALDEZ ARM-
255 PM AKDT SUN APR 17 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-181130-
PASSAGE CANAL-
255 PM AKDT SUN APR 17 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-181130-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
255 PM AKDT SUN APR 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO  20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-181130-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
255 PM AKDT SUN APR 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 25 KT.
SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ132-181130-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
255 PM AKDT SUN APR 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT EXCEPT 3 FT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ136-181130-
CHINIAK BAY-
255 PM AKDT SUN APR 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 25 KT.
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ137-181130-
MARMOT BAY-
255 PM AKDT SUN APR 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 25 KT.
SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ138-181130-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
255 PM AKDT SUN APR 17 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT THROUGH THE EVENING.
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ139-181130-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
255 PM AKDT SUN APR 17 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-181130-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
255 PM AKDT SUN APR 17 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-181130-
KACHEMAK BAY-
255 PM AKDT SUN APR 17 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Apr 17, 5:03 AM AKDT, 9 hours 52 minutes earlier.

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
503 AM AKDT SUN APR 17 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC AND
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE ALASKA REGION...WITH TROUGHS CENTERED ALONG
171 AND 145W AND A RIDGE CENTERED ALONG 162W. THE DOMINANT
FEATURE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY IS A LARGE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
POSITIONED JUST WEST OF SHEMYA. THE ASSOCIATED GALE FORCE FRONTAL
SYSTEM HAS PROGRESSED THROUGH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHWEST
BERING...AND IS NOW BRINGING WET AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND CENTRAL/EASTERN BERING. THE COLD AIR MASS
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN TO EASTERN
BERING HAS STARTED ITS RETREAT TO THE NORTHERN BERING
OVERNIGHT...WITH WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND PRIBILOF ISLANDS. THIS WARMER AIR MASS
MOVING OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS WILL START TO TRANSITION THE
PRE-FRONTAL SNOW OBSERVED OVERNIGHT TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX THIS
MORNING.

MEANWHILE...CONDITIONS REMAIN QUIET ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE FAR EASTERN BERING AND ALASKA PENINSULA TO
THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND GULF OF ALASKA. A LARGE WEAK VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW IS POSITIONED WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF...WITH WEAK
CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING UP INTO SOUTHCENTRAL. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
WAVES CONTINUE TO HELP DEVELOP SHOWERS IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...WITH THE BULK OF PRECIP CONFINED TO THE GULF COASTAL
ZONE.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT. THE ONE NOTABLE
DIFFERENCE IS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND POSITIONING OF A SURFACE
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 12Z NAM REMAINS AN
OUTLIER TO THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS...BEING MUCH SLOWER AND LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF WHICH REPRESENTS AN AVERAGE
POSITION OF THE REST OF THE SOLUTIONS. ASIDE FROM THAT FEATURE THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS IS DETAILS OF SKY
COVER AND SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE LOW IN THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT AND
DISSIPATE EARLY MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE SPINNING AROUND THE
LOW...STAYING ALONG AND NEAR THE GULF COAST. CONDITIONS WILL BE
MAINLY DRY INLAND WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE LOW LEVELS AND
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN
ALONG THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT SWITCHING THE FLOW TO ONSHORE. THIS
RIDGE IS BUILDING AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. A SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL REACH
KODIAK ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH MODEST DIURNALLY DRIVEN
INSTABILITY WILL YIELD ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...PRIMARILY FROM
BRISTOL BAY INTO THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. A WEAKENING FRONT
OVER THE BERING SEA WILL THEN APPROACH THE COAST TONIGHT BUT STALL
JUST OFFSHORE...KEEPING THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE FRONT OVER THE BERING WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW NORTH AND
EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
AND HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SUBSEQUENTLY SHIFTING FROM THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL OUT JUST OFFSHORE OF THE MAINLAND AND
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...KEEPING RAIN AND GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS FOCUSED ALONG THE AKPEN DURING THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND COMPLEX SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE BERING WILL MAINTAIN A BENIGN SHOWERY PATTERN OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS A CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC
PATTERN. TROUGHING CONTINUES OVER THE BERING SEA WITH THE EAST
ASIAN JET EXTENDING WELL INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. HOWEVER...MOST OF
THE DYNAMICS RESIDE WELL SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS SO THE FRONTS AND
SYSTEMS MOVING POLEWARD WILL HAVE LOST MOST OF THEIR PUNCH BY THE
TIME THEY IMPACT THE CHAIN. THERE WILL BE A WEAKENING FRONT OVER
THE EASTERN BERING SEA WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS WITHIN MOST OF THE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OUT THERE. OVER THE EAST SIDE...GENERALLY
LIGHT FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE STORY. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
BE DIURNALLY FORCED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...155 165 170 172 179 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...TP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
LONG TERM...ML

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2016Every small craft advisory in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.