Small Craft Advisory 333, NWS Anchorage, AK

242 
FZAK51 PAFC 172255
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
255 PM AKDT SUN APR 17 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-181130-
255 PM AKDT SUN APR 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1010 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTHWEST OF YAKUTAT WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER
YAKUTAT AND DISSIPATE MON AFTERNOON. A FRONT ENTERS THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF ALASKA TUE MORNING AND MOVES OVER SOUTHERN
KODIAK ISLAND WED MORNING.

$$

PKZ119-181130-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
255 PM AKDT SUN APR 17 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ120-181130-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
255 PM AKDT SUN APR 17 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 20 KT.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ121-181130-
RESURRECTION BAY-
255 PM AKDT SUN APR 17 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-181130-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
255 PM AKDT SUN APR 17 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-181130-
PORT VALDEZ-
255 PM AKDT SUN APR 17 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-181130-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
255 PM AKDT SUN APR 17 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-181130-
VALDEZ ARM-
255 PM AKDT SUN APR 17 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-181130-
PASSAGE CANAL-
255 PM AKDT SUN APR 17 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-181130-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
255 PM AKDT SUN APR 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO  20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-181130-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
255 PM AKDT SUN APR 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 25 KT.
SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ132-181130-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
255 PM AKDT SUN APR 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT EXCEPT 3 FT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ136-181130-
CHINIAK BAY-
255 PM AKDT SUN APR 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 25 KT.
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ137-181130-
MARMOT BAY-
255 PM AKDT SUN APR 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 25 KT.
SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ138-181130-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
255 PM AKDT SUN APR 17 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT THROUGH THE EVENING.
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ139-181130-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
255 PM AKDT SUN APR 17 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-181130-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
255 PM AKDT SUN APR 17 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-181130-
KACHEMAK BAY-
255 PM AKDT SUN APR 17 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
448 PM AKDT SAT APR 16 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC AND
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE ALASKA REGION...WITH TROUGHS CENTERED ALONG
167E AND 150W AND A RIDGE CENTERED ALONG 170W. THE DOMINANT FEATURE
IN SATELLITE IMAGERY IS A VERY LARGE OCCLUDED LOW WHICH HAS STALLED
BETWEEN THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS. A GALE TO
STORM FORCE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS PROGRESSING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST BERING AND ALEUTIANS. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AT
THE HEAD OF A 130 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IS LEADING TO MODERATE
RAIN...WITH PRECIP RATES OF AROUND TWO TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH
PER HOUR AS PER THE POLAR SATELLITE BLENDED RAIN RATE PRODUCT.
THE AIR MASS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN TO
EASTERN BERING IS QUITE COLD...WITH THE 12Z SAINT PAUL SOUNDING
SHOWING TEMPS OF -10 DEGREES CELSIUS OR COLDER FROM 3000 FEET ON
UP. THUS...SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE SNOW AS PRE-FRONTAL PRECIP
FIRST MOVES IN.

MEANWHILE...CONDITIONS ARE QUIET ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE EASTERN BERING AND ALASKA PENINSULA TO THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND AND GULF OF ALASKA. A LARGE WEAK VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
IS POSITIONED WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF WITH WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW
EXTENDING UP INTO SOUTHCENTRAL. WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES ARE HELPING
TO FOCUS SHOWERS IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...WITH THE
BULK OF PRECIP CONFINED TO THE GULF COASTAL ZONE.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT. THE ONE NOTABLE
DIFFERENCE IS WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY MORNING AND TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING. 12Z NAM
IS A DEFINITE OUTLIER WITH MUCH SLOWER MOVEMENT. WILL LEAN TOWARD
THE ECMWF WHICH REPRESENTS AN AVERAGE POSITION OF THE REST OF THE
SOLUTIONS. ASIDE FROM THAT FEATURE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS IS DETAILS OF SKY COVER AND SHOWER COVERAGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

GAP WINDS ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM AND THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY WILL BE
ON THE DOWNSWING TONIGHT AS THE COASTAL RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND
MOVES INTO THE INTERIOR OF ALASKA. IN THE MEANTIME...A WEAKENING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF/EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC CONTINUES TO BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. RADAR IMAGERY FROM THIS AFTERNOON
SHOWS A LOT OF RETURNS OVER INLAND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA BUT LOOKING
AT TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS THE PANC
12Z AND 00Z RAOBS...A LOT OF DRY AIR REMAINS AT THE LOWER LEVELS
PREVENTING MUCH (IF ANY) RAINFALL FROM MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND AND
PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST THROUGH MONDAY WITH VERY WEAK AND BROAD
LOW PRESSURE RESIDING OVER THE GULF AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ALASKA. LAPSE RATES ACROSS INLAND AREAS LOOK PRETTY FAVORABLE FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS TO DEVELOP NEAR MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BUT WILL LIKELY BE TOO MOIST TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A GENERALLY SHOWERY...BUT BENIGN...PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
OVER BRISTOL BAY AND THE MIDDLE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AS THE
COMBINATION OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVE AND SOME DIURNAL FORCING WILL
GENERATE LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
DECREASE ON SUNDAY EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH OUT OF THE
AREA. ON MONDAY...THE FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA WILL APPROACH THE REGION...BRINGING SHOWERS BACK INTO
THE FORECAST FOR ALL OF THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE LOW MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST BERING SEA NEAR THE
COMMANDER ISLANDS IS JUST ABOUT AT PEAK INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON
AT ABOUT 974MB. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA...PRODUCING SOLID GALE FORCE
WINDS OVER MOST OF THE REACH. RAINFALL TOTALS ALONG THE FRONT ARE
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE WITH A MOISTURE FETCH FROM DEEP IN THE SUB-
TROPICS /ABOUT 25N/...PRODUCING STORM TOTALS OF AROUND AN INCH AT
ADAK OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD AND SLOWLY WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH WINDS DECREASING TO BELOW GALE FORCE
OVER MOST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL
GENERALLY STAY AS ALL RAIN OVER THE REGION WITH SOME AREAS OF SNOW
OVERNIGHT NEAR UNALASKA TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW. THE PRIBILOFS WILL SEE MOSTLY SNOW WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT SOLIDLY IN PLACE UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS A CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC
PATTERN. TROUGHING CONTINUES OVER THE BERING SEA WITH THE EAST
ASIAN JET EXTENDING WELL INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. HOWEVER...MOST OF
THE DYNAMICS RESIDE WELL SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS SO THE FRONTS AND
SYSTEMS MOVING POLEWARD WILL HAVE LOST MOST OF THEIR PUNCH BY THE
TIME THEY IMPACT THE CHAIN. THERE WILL BE A WEAKENING FRONT OVER
THE EASTERN BERING SEA WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS WITHIN MOST OF THE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OUT THERE. OVER THE EAST SIDE...GENERALLY
LIGHT FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE STORY. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
BE DIURNALLY FORCED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 155 165 170 172 173 174 175 176 179 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RF
LONG TERM...ML