Small Craft Advisory 33, NWS Anchorage, AK

627 
FZAK52 PAFC 110001
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
301 PM AKST SUN JAN 10 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-111300-
301 PM AKST SUN JAN 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 980 MB LOW 75 NM WEST OF SITKINAK WILL MOVE NEAR TOGIAK AT 983
MB LOW MON MORNING...THEN MOVE INLAND AND DISSIPATE. A 970 MB LOW
350 NM NORTH OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 60N 175E AT 986 MB MON
AFTERNOON.


$$

PKZ150-111300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
301 PM AKST SUN JAN 10 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. N AND E OF
CHIRIKOF ISLAND...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 25 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

PKZ155-111300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
301 PM AKST SUN JAN 10 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT EXCEPT W 30 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS
E. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...W WIND 30 KT
DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ160-111300-
BRISTOL BAY-
301 PM AKST SUN JAN 10 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ165-111300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
301 PM AKST SUN JAN 10 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT EXCEPT NW 30 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS
10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT EXCEPT W 30 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS 11
FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ170-111300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
301 PM AKST SUN JAN 10 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ171-111300-
UNALASKA BAY-
301 PM AKST SUN JAN 10 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ172-111300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
301 PM AKST SUN JAN 10 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ173-111300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
301 PM AKST SUN JAN 10 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ174-111300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
301 PM AKST SUN JAN 10 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ175-111300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
301 PM AKST SUN JAN 10 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ176-111300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
301 PM AKST SUN JAN 10 2016

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ177-111300-
ADAK TO KISKA-
301 PM AKST SUN JAN 10 2016

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. BERING SIDE...SEAS 9 FT. PACIFIC
SIDE...SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ178-111300-
KISKA TO ATTU-
301 PM AKST SUN JAN 10 2016

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY FROM SHEMYA W.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12
FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT BERING SIDE...20 FT PACIFIC
SIDE.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ179-111300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
301 PM AKST SUN JAN 10 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING SW 15 KT. 
SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ180-111300-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
301 PM AKST SUN JAN 10 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING
SPRAY N OF CAPE NEWENHAM.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY N OF CAPE
NEWENHAM.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN.
FREEZING SPRAY W OF KUSKOKWIM BAY.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ181-111300-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
301 PM AKST SUN JAN 10 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT EARLY BECOMING NW 25 AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. SNOW.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ185-111300-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
301 PM AKST SUN JAN 10 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW
20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE WIND 40 KT.
SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NW WIND 25 KT. W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 12 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NW WIND 30 KT. W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY
FROM SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND N.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

892 
FZAK52 PAFC 111248
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
348 AM AKST MON JAN 11 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-120145-
348 AM AKST MON JAN 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 976 MB LOW 340 NM WEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND MOVES INLAND OVER
EASTERN SIBERIA THIS AFTERNOON. A 980 MB LOW 70 NM EAST OF PORT HEIDEN
WILL MOVE TO 140 NM NORTHWEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND AT 988 MB WED MORNING.
A 970 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO 300 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA THIS
AFTERNOON AT 967 MB...THEN MOVES TO 320 NM SOUTHWEST OF ATKA AT 974
MB WED MORNING. A FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY WED.

$$

PKZ150-120145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
348 AM AKST MON JAN 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

PKZ155-120145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
348 AM AKST MON JAN 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT EXCEPT W 25 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS
E. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ160-120145-
BRISTOL BAY-
348 AM AKST MON JAN 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ165-120145-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
348 AM AKST MON JAN 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT EXCEPT W 30 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS 9
FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ170-120145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
348 AM AKST MON JAN 11 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ171-120145-
UNALASKA BAY-
348 AM AKST MON JAN 11 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10
KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ172-120145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
348 AM AKST MON JAN 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ173-120145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
348 AM AKST MON JAN 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ174-120145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
348 AM AKST MON JAN 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ175-120145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
348 AM AKST MON JAN 11 2016

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ176-120145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
348 AM AKST MON JAN 11 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 13 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ177-120145-
ADAK TO KISKA-
348 AM AKST MON JAN 11 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT BY THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT BERING SIDE...24 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ178-120145-
KISKA TO ATTU-
348 AM AKST MON JAN 11 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT BY THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY IN
THE MORNING. SNOW
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ179-120145-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
348 AM AKST MON JAN 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W WIND 15 KT LATE
MORNING. SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ180-120145-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
348 AM AKST MON JAN 11 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY N OF CAPE
NEWENHAM.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY N OF CAPE NEWENHAM.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF CAPE NEWENHAM.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ181-120145-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
348 AM AKST MON JAN 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE
WATERS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ185-120145-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
348 AM AKST MON JAN 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NW WIND 25 KT. W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND... NW 25 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
502 PM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE REGION SHOWS THE RIDGE OVER
SOUTHEAST ALASKA IS STILL THERE AND ANOTHER AREA OF HIGHER HEIGHTS
IS PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE INTO THE CHUKCHI
SEA. THE FRONT THAT PUSHED ONSHORE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS
MORNING IS SEPARATING THESE TWO REGIONS BUT THIS FEATURE WILL
RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS THE RIDGE IS IN NO HURRY TO GO ANYWHERE. THE
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA AND SOUTHEAST
TO AROUND 35N 150W. THE MAIN JET STREAM IS SOUTH OF THIS TROUGH
AND IS RUNNING WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A JET
STREAK RUNNING SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF
OF ALASKA IN THE AREA WHERE THE GRADIENT IS BEING INCREASED
BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND THE TROUGH BUT THIS IS NOT PART
OF THE MAIN JET STREAM. THERE IS A SURFACE LOW LOCATED IN THE
EASTERN BERING SEA. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW MOVED ON
SHORE OVER THE BRISTOL BAY REGION LAST NIGHT AND OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA THIS MORNING. THIS LOW AND FRONT ARE SOURCE OF MOST OF
THE WEATHER OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA TODAY. A STRONGER LOW IS LOCATED
NEAR 40N 150W WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS STRONGEST. THIS
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND WILL BE THE SOURCE OF THE
NEXT ROUND OF STORMINESS IN SOUTHERN ALASKA...BUT WILL BE WEAKENING
AS IT REACHES THE AREA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE VERY CONSISTENT OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE THE FIRST REAL ISSUES BEGIN TO CREEP IN. THE NAM AND ECMWF
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE WAY THE LOW NEAR BRISTOL BAY
ELONGATES ON MONDAY. THE GFS HAS A MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION
WHICH KEEPS THE ENERGY MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AS A CLOSED OFF
LOW WITH THE MAIN LOW REMAINING IN THE GULF. MEANWHILE THE NAM
AND ECMWF DAMPEN OUT THIS SECONDARY LOW AND JUST SHOW IT AS A
WEAK TROUGH. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THE MORE
LIKELY SOLUTION IS THE ONE SHOWN BY THE NAM AND ECMWF.

ANOTHER AREA OF NOTE IS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS MONDAY AND
BEYOND. UP UNTIL THEN THE MODELS RECOGNIZE THE PARENT LOW TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF ATTU WITH A STRONG TRIPLE POINT LOW TO ITS SOUTHEAST.
THE TRIPLE POINT WILL STALL AND ELONGATE AS IT APPROACHES THE
ALEUTIANS BUT THE SOLUTIONS BETWEEN THE MODELS IN HOW THIS WILL
HAPPEN VARY GREATLY. THE ECMWF AND GEM SOLUTIONS ARE MORE INTUITIVE
AND DEVELOP AS ONE WOULD EXPECT THE PATTERN TO DEVELOP. THE GFS
LOOKS LIKE IT IS CONSOLIDATING THE ENERGY INTO MOSTLY A SINGLE
CENTER WHICH IS LESS LIKELY GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
AS THE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISSIPATING
FRONT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ANOTHER
WAVE APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT.
THUS...THERE WILL ONLY BE A VERY SHORT BREAK IN PRECIPITATION (IF
ANY) FOR COASTAL AREAS. WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP AGAIN AHEAD OF
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE GULF SUNDAY...AND
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL
REMAIN THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST...WITH GALES REDEVELOPING
ACROSS MANY MARINE AREAS (WITH BRIEF STORMS FOR THE BARREN ISLANDS
MIDDAY SUNDAY) AND STRONG/BRISK GAP FLOWS IN THE FAVORED AREAS
SURROUNDING PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND TURNAGAIN ARM INTO SUNDAY
EVENING.

THE OTHER FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST IS THE SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS THE MATSU/ANCHORAGE BOWL CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING...AS
CROSS BARRIER FLOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND WE START TO SEE A SMALL
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION SPILL OVER INTO THE AREA. RAIN IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL AREA...WITH A MIX OVER MOST INLAND
AREAS. SHOWERY CONDITIONS HAVE STARTED TO CONVERT TO A MORE STEADY
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION...AS WARMER
TEMPS ALOFT BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA AND STABILIZE THE AIRMASS.
STRATIFORM RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THIS AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...AS
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. AS THIS FRONT
LINES UP ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...AREAS ALONG THE COAST
WILL CONTINUE TO RECEIVE THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION...AS
DOWNSLOPE DRYING WILL LIMIT THE PRECIPITATION VALUES ON THE
LEEWARD SIDE OF THE CHUGACH AND KENAI RANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL REMAIN IN A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE BUT LOW
IMPACT PATTERN THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK AS VARIOUS WEAK
DISTURBANCES FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND SKIRT THE COAST.
THIS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION FOCUSED FROM BRISTOL
BAY TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA...ESPECIALLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
BRISTOL BAY REGION WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED
BY SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES HOVERING NEAR OR ABOVE
FREEZING WILL GENERALLY SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THESE
AREAS...HELPING TO LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS. MEANWHILE...
LOCATIONS IN THE LEE OF THE ALEUTIAN RANGE WILL PRIMARILY SEE
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS GIVEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT CROSS BARRIER FLOW.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE DELTA WILL COME
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER FRONT NOSES IN THE
SOUTHEAST BERING...WITH TEMPERATURES LOOKING TO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A DECAYING FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING WILL KEEP A BAND
OF SNOW FOCUSED OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW LATER TONIGHT AS
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP IN COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE
OF A SURFACE LOW RIDING ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS TOWARDS THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BERING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN AT THE SURFACE AND BRINGS A BRIEF ROUND OF DRY WEATHER TO THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE UPPER LEVELS AT 300 MB REFLECT AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHWEST EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER YUKON TERRITORY
KEEPING SYSTEMS IN THE GULF. LOCATED UPSTREAM IS A TROUGH OVER
THE NORTH PACIFIC EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND A
CLOSED LOW POSITIONED JUST WEST OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. THE
ONLY CHANGE WILL BE THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL BE CONTINUE TO BUILD
AND RETROGRADE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE EXTENDING ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE. THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW NEAR
THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL BECOME ELONGATED WITH MULTIPLE WEAKER
LOWS FORMING ALONG THE CHAIN.

REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE...THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL BE SEEN
AS A ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC ON TUESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY THURSDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY MOVING
EASTWARD JUST SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND BY SATURDAY. IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ELONGATED LOW POSITIONED IN THE
CENTRAL GULF EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE BARREN ISLAND REGION BY
TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING BY WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL AOR WILL HAVE WARMER TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES RECEIVING THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION. THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND THE WESTERN KENAI
WILL HAVE DOWNSLOPE (DRIER) CONDITIONS AS THIS SYSTEM DISSIPATES
BY MIDWEEK. ON THE BERING SIDE...THIS PATTERN WILL PRODUCE A
SHOWERY WEATHER REGIME WITH NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE MIDWEEK TIME-FRAME HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OVER THE BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. THIS IS
RESULTING IN THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEING BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH
THIS UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 119 130 131.
         GALE WARNING 120 125 132 136 137 138 139 140 165 170
                      179 181 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
LONG TERM...PD