Small Craft Advisory 327, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Apr 13, 2016, 2:55 PM AKDT (22:55 UTC)

Expired

Apr 14, 2016, 3:15 AM AKDT

In force

12 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

904 
FZAK52 PAFC 132255
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
255 PM AKDT WED APR 13 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-141115-
255 PM AKDT WED APR 13 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 987 MB LOW 75 NM SOUTHEAST OF ATKA WILL MOVE TO 200 NM SOUTHEAST
OF DUTCH HARBOR AT 989 MB THU AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE INTO THE
NORTH PACIFIC. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS FRI
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-141115-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
255 PM AKDT WED APR 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND TO 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ155-141115-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
255 PM AKDT WED APR 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT
FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ160-141115-
BRISTOL BAY-
255 PM AKDT WED APR 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ165-141115-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
255 PM AKDT WED APR 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT EXCEPT 15 KT FROM PORT
MOLLER W. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT EXCEPT E 25 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ170-141115-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
255 PM AKDT WED APR 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ171-141115-
UNALASKA BAY-
255 PM AKDT WED APR 13 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-141115-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
255 PM AKDT WED APR 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ173-141115-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
255 PM AKDT WED APR 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ174-141115-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
255 PM AKDT WED APR 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ175-141115-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
255 PM AKDT WED APR 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ176-141115-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
255 PM AKDT WED APR 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

PKZ177-141115-
ADAK TO KISKA-
255 PM AKDT WED APR 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ178-141115-
KISKA TO ATTU-
255 PM AKDT WED APR 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT EXCEPT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT FROM SHEMYA W.
SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT E OF SHEMYA.
SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ179-141115-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
255 PM AKDT WED APR 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ180-141115-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
255 PM AKDT WED APR 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ181-141115-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
255 PM AKDT WED APR 13 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY
TOWARD THE ICE EDGE.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY TOWARD THE ICE EDGE.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ185-141115-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
255 PM AKDT WED APR 13 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT.
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Apr 13, 5:18 AM AKDT, 9 hours 37 minutes earlier.

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
518 AM AKDT WED APR 13 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
BENIGN CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA THIS
MORNING WITHIN A REGION OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN A BROAD
COMPLEX LOW OVER THE GULF AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ARCTIC. THIS
PATTERN YIELDS DRY OFFSHORE FLOW WHICH HAS PAVED THE WAY FOR
CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER LINGERS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AK ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE WEAKENING GULF LOW. FARTHER WEST...A LARGE
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG 45N WITH AN
ASSOCIATED FRONT ARCING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS. THIS IS BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ALONG WITH LOW
END GALE FORCE WINDS TO THESE PARTS OF THE CHAIN. CONDITIONS ARE
MUCH QUIETER ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BERING BENEATH AN AREA
OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE REMAINS LOCKED IN ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE
SHORT TERM AS THE LARGE NORTH PACIFIC LOW SKIRTS THE ALEUTIAN
CHAIN AND MOVES TO A POSITION SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND BY FRIDAY
MORNING. CONTINUED TO UTILIZE THE NAM OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AK TO
CAPTURE ENHANCED DETAIL FOR LOCALIZED FEATURES. PREFERRED THE GFS
AS A MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION OVER THE BERING TO ACCOUNT FOR SLIGHT
DISCREPANCIES WITH THE HANDLING OF THE ALEUTIAN LOW AMONGST THE
OTHER MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LOCATED IN THE
NORTHEAST GULF IS CURRENTLY BRINGING SHOWERS JUST SOUTH OF PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BROAD CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND TODAY AS IT PROGRESSES
 WESTWARD. THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER
TODAY AND GENERALLY BELOW RECORD LEVELS ALTHOUGH STILL WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE. IN ADDITION...THIS WAVE IN COMBINATION WITH SURFACE
HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING FOR SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE COPPER BASIN TO
THE ANCHORAGE BOWL. PARTIAL CLEARING IS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AFTER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSES WEST. THE TIMING IS
STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT IF CLOUDS CLEAR BY THE
AFTERNOON...ANOTHER ROUND OF RECORD TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE IN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND. IN CONTRAST...A FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH KODIAK ISLAND BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
USHER IN STEADIER RAIN FOR THE ISLAND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WARM AND SUNNY SPRING-LIKE WEATHER WILL REMAIN AGAIN TODAY WITH
THE ONLY NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERN BEING A SLIGHT RISK OF PATCHY
FOG IN INTERIOR RIVER VALLEYS THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BEGIN TO
CHANGE FOR BRISTOL BAY ON THURSDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF THE GALE
FORCE FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE
AREA WITH GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ALEUTIAN
RANGE). THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND DELTA HOWEVER SHOULD REMAIN DRY
FOR THIS SYSTEM AS THE LOW CENTER STAYS SAFELY TO THE SOUTH OVER
THE NORTH PACIFIC...BUT IT WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE FOCUS OVER THE
BERING/ALEUTIANS CENTERS AROUND THE GALE FORCE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE CHAIN...AND LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE OVERALL FORECAST
THINKING. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIX OF
RAIN AND WET SNOW THROUGHOUT THE CHAIN BUT WITH NO SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. WITH THIS SOUTHERN TRACK...THE PRIBILOFS
WILL BE LARGELY SPARED (PARTICULARLY SAINT PAUL) FROM THIS SYSTEM
WITH ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH WINDS BELOW GALE-FORCE.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
NO CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST AS THE GENERAL PATTERN
REMAINS THE SAME...WHICH WILL FEATURE A SEMIPERMANENT BERING
TROUGH...WITH THE WEAKENING REMNANTS MOVING INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THIS WILL KEEP A GENERAL LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW
COMPONENT INLAND...WITH THE MOST SHOWERS REMAINING OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. INLAND SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE
MOUNTAIN RANGES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE. HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A
DEVELOPING RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA...WHICH MAY BRING A PERIOD
OF WARMER AND EVEN DRIER CONDITIONS...BUT THERE REMAINS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE AND IF THAT RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS INTO ALASKA.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE...173 174 175 176 177 178.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ELN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEK
LONG TERM...JA

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2016Every small craft advisory in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.