Small Craft Advisory 325, NWS Anchorage, AK

904 
FZAK52 PAFC 132255
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
255 PM AKDT WED APR 13 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-141115-
255 PM AKDT WED APR 13 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 987 MB LOW 75 NM SOUTHEAST OF ATKA WILL MOVE TO 200 NM SOUTHEAST
OF DUTCH HARBOR AT 989 MB THU AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE INTO THE
NORTH PACIFIC. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS FRI
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-141115-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
255 PM AKDT WED APR 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND TO 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ155-141115-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
255 PM AKDT WED APR 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT
FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ160-141115-
BRISTOL BAY-
255 PM AKDT WED APR 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ165-141115-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
255 PM AKDT WED APR 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT EXCEPT 15 KT FROM PORT
MOLLER W. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT EXCEPT E 25 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ170-141115-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
255 PM AKDT WED APR 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ171-141115-
UNALASKA BAY-
255 PM AKDT WED APR 13 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-141115-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
255 PM AKDT WED APR 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ173-141115-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
255 PM AKDT WED APR 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ174-141115-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
255 PM AKDT WED APR 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ175-141115-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
255 PM AKDT WED APR 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ176-141115-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
255 PM AKDT WED APR 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

PKZ177-141115-
ADAK TO KISKA-
255 PM AKDT WED APR 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ178-141115-
KISKA TO ATTU-
255 PM AKDT WED APR 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT EXCEPT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT FROM SHEMYA W.
SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT E OF SHEMYA.
SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ179-141115-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
255 PM AKDT WED APR 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ180-141115-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
255 PM AKDT WED APR 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ181-141115-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
255 PM AKDT WED APR 13 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY
TOWARD THE ICE EDGE.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY TOWARD THE ICE EDGE.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ185-141115-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
255 PM AKDT WED APR 13 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT.
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
428 PM AKDT TUE APR 12 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
TWO MAIN LOWS ARE AFFECTING THE GULF OF ALASKA TODAY. ONE IS
CENTERED SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WITH A FRONT IN AN ARC SOUTH OF
KODIAK ISLAND TO THE OTHER LOW THAT HAS FORMED ALONG THIS FRONT
WEST SOUTHWEST OF DIXON ENTRANCE. NORTH OF THIS FRONT MOISTURE
AND CLOUDS ARE ROTATING FROM EAST TO WEST ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST TO KODIAK ISLAND AND THE EASTERN ALASKA PENINSULA.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND
THIS LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AS IT DISSIPATES THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS LOW ALONG WITH THE OVERALL LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
COMPLEX SUPPORTING THE GULF OF ALASKA LOWS IS RESULTING IN AN
OVERALL EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THAT WILL SERVE
TO PULL THE CLOUD COVER OFF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THROUGH TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

OUT WEST WE HAVE A LARGE LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
PUSHING A FRONT TO JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN THEN ARCING
SOUTHEAST TO A TRIPLE POINT WELL SOUTH OF ADAK. THIS SYSTEM IS
RAPIDLY MOVING EAST AND STAYING SOUTH OF THE CHAIN.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA DISSIPATES AND THE NEXT LOW
NOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS RAPIDLY MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA
BY FRI. WE STAYED THE COURSE USING THE NAM FOR MORE DETAILS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GFS OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING
SEA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2...WED AND THU)...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WILL BE FORCED TO
RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST AS A STRONGER LOW NEAR 50N UNDERCUTS
IT. AS IT MOVES FROM THE EAST TO WEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WED...IT
WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS SO FAR THIS WEEK.
WHILE SOME CONSIDERATION WAS GIVEN TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN...IT APPEARS THE MID-
LEVELS WILL JUST BE TOO WARM AND THE FORCING TOO WEAK TO LIFT THE
PARCELS HIGH ENOUGH IN THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO
INCREASE THE SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WHICH WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS BACK
INTO THE TURNAGAIN ARM. IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE CAN WARM THE SUSITNA
VALLEY BEFORE THE THICKER CLOUD COVER MOVES IN...SOME OF THESE
WINDS COULD ONCE AGAIN CLIP SOUTH AND WEST ANCHORAGE LIKE WE SAW
OVER LAST WEEKEND.

BY THU...WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO NOSE IN FROM THE GULF.
THIS WILL USHER THE RETROGRADING LOW OUT OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
PRODUCE ANOTHER PARTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...FOR COASTAL AREAS...THE NEXT FRONT REACHES
KODIAK CITY BY THU MORNING AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY THU NIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS TO
THOSE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WEAK WARM ADVECTION JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND LIGHT NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO FORM BY LATE THIS
EVENING OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY THROUGH THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA. OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND THEN BECOMES EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEATHER FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTH. ONCE THIS RIDGING WORKS INTO THE REGION BY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...IT WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING
CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. AS THE FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF THE AKPEN THURSDAY...INCREASED
CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MAY FALL AROUND THE BRISTOL BAY
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A GALE-FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE ALEUTIANS THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH WINDS WEAKENING BELOW GALES BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIX OF
RAIN AND WET SNOW THROUGHOUT THE CHAIN BUT WITH NO SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. WITH THIS SOUTHERN TRACK...THE PRIBILOFS
WILL BE LARGELY SPARED (PARTICULARLY SAINT PAUL) FROM THIS SYSTEM
WITH ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH WINDS BELOW GALE-FORCE.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
NO CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST AS THE GENERAL PATTERN
REMAINS THE SAME...WHICH WILL FEATURE A SEMIPERMANENT BERING
TROUGH...WITH THE WEAKENING REMNANTS MOVING INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THIS WILL KEEP A GENERAL LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW
COMPONENT INLAND...WITH THE MOST SHOWERS REMAINING OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. INLAND SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE
MOUNTAIN RANGES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE. HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A
DEVELOPING RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA...WHICH MAY BRING A PERIOD
OF WARMER AND EVEN DRIER CONDITIONS...BUT THERE REMAINS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE AND IF THAT RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS INTO ALASKA.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 176 177 178.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CC
LONG TERM...JA