Alert archive / Alaska / Small Craft Advisories in 2016

Small Craft Advisory 277, NWS Anchorage, AK

March 28, 2016

NWS Anchorage, AK issued this small craft advisory at Mar 28, 2016, 3:34 AM AKDT. It was in force for 12 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Mar 28, 2016, 3:34 AM AKDT (11:34 UTC)
Expired
Mar 28, 2016, 3:15 PM AKDT
In force
12 hr
Issued by
NWS Anchorage, AK

The text

As transmitted.

344 
FZAK51 PAFC 281134
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
334 AM AKDT MON MAR 28 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-290100-
334 AM AKDT MON MAR 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 993 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTH OF CHIRIKOF ISLAND THIS MORNING MOVES UP
COOK INLET INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA BY TONIGHT. A FRONT DEVELOPS
IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF TUE MORNING AND MOVES INTO THE ALASKA
PENINSULA TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-290100-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
334 AM AKDT MON MAR 28 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. NORTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND...SE WIND 25 KT
INCREASING TO 35 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. NORTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND...SE WIND 35 KT
DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ120-290100-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
334 AM AKDT MON MAR 28 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ121-290100-
RESURRECTION BAY-
334 AM AKDT MON MAR 28 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S
OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-290100-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
334 AM AKDT MON MAR 28 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-290100-
PORT VALDEZ-
334 AM AKDT MON MAR 28 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-290100-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
334 AM AKDT MON MAR 28 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-290100-
VALDEZ ARM-
334 AM AKDT MON MAR 28 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-290100-
PASSAGE CANAL-
334 AM AKDT MON MAR 28 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS 2
FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-290100-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
334 AM AKDT MON MAR 28 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-290100-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
334 AM AKDT MON MAR 28 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ132-290100-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
334 AM AKDT MON MAR 28 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ136-290100-
CHINIAK BAY-
334 AM AKDT MON MAR 28 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS 5
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ137-290100-
MARMOT BAY-
334 AM AKDT MON MAR 28 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ138-290100-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
334 AM AKDT MON MAR 28 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ139-290100-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
334 AM AKDT MON MAR 28 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ140-290100-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
334 AM AKDT MON MAR 28 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-290100-
KACHEMAK BAY-
334 AM AKDT MON MAR 28 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$
1 follow-up statement
175 
FZAK51 PAFC 282315
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
315 PM AKDT MON MAR 28 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-291215-
315 PM AKDT MON MAR 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 996 MB LOW 50 NM SOUTHWEST OF SITKINAK WILL TRACK TO COOK 
INLET TONIGHT THEN DISSIPATE AS IT HEADS INLAND TUE. A SERIES OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL CROSS THE GULF THROUGH WED.

$$

PKZ119-291215-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
315 PM AKDT MON MAR 28 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. NORTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND...SE WIND 35
KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ120-291215-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
315 PM AKDT MON MAR 28 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ121-291215-
RESURRECTION BAY-
315 PM AKDT MON MAR 28 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS
S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-291215-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
315 PM AKDT MON MAR 28 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-291215-
PORT VALDEZ-
315 PM AKDT MON MAR 28 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.WED THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-291215-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
315 PM AKDT MON MAR 28 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-291215-
VALDEZ ARM-
315 PM AKDT MON MAR 28 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-291215-
PASSAGE CANAL-
315 PM AKDT MON MAR 28 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-291215-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
315 PM AKDT MON MAR 28 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. NEAR KAMISHAK BAY...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING
VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-291215-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
315 PM AKDT MON MAR 28 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ132-291215-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
315 PM AKDT MON MAR 28 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ136-291215-
CHINIAK BAY-
315 PM AKDT MON MAR 28 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ137-291215-
MARMOT BAY-
315 PM AKDT MON MAR 28 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ138-291215-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
315 PM AKDT MON MAR 28 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ139-291215-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
315 PM AKDT MON MAR 28 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-291215-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
315 PM AKDT MON MAR 28 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-291215-
KACHEMAK BAY-
315 PM AKDT MON MAR 28 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Mar 27, 5:29 PM AKDT, 10 hours 5 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 27, 5:29 PM AKDT, 10 hours 5 minutes before
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
529 PM AKDT SUN MAR 27 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

AS THE EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE FURTHER BUILDS JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE AOR...THE TRANSITION TO A MORE ACTIVE (AND WET)
WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES UPSTREAM OF THE RIDGE AXIS. A VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW SITS JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN ISLANDS WITH
AN ASSOCIATED DECAYING FRONT STRETCHING ZONALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BERING. THE UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL JET IS HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC WITH A JET STREAK
EXTENDING MERIDIONALLY ALONG THE 160W MERIDIAN FROM 40N THROUGH
KODIAK ISLAND. THIS UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE ALONG WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY
LOW AND MID-LEVEL FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE NORTH PACIFIC
CYCLONE IS SUPPORTING DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA TODAY. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION IS BEST SEEN ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON AS A LARGE PLUME OF FAST MOVING SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC TO THE
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COAST. THIS MOISTURE WAS FOCUSED THIS MORNING
ON THE ALASKA PENINSULA...WHERE THE MORNING COLD BAY SOUNDING
SHOWED A PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUE OF 0.71"...WHICH IS 259%
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN THE PAST FEW HOURS THE FOCUS OF
THE MOISTURE PLUME HAS PROGRESSED NORTHEASTWARD...SHIFTING THE
AREA OF HIGHEST PW VALUES TO ALONG THE COOK INLET AND WESTERN GULF
COAST REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS SETTING THE STAGE FOR A VERY
WET BEGINNING TO THE WEEK FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND.

A WARM FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION OVER THE BRISTOL BAY
REGION IS SUPPORTING SUBSTANTIAL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA...WHERE
STEADY PRECIPITATION CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR IMAGERY THROUGH THE
MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST ARE WARMING AS
THE SUBTROPICAL AIRMASS APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH...BUT CURRENTLY
REMAIN JUST COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE
RAIN NORTH OF BRISTOL BAY FOR NOW. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WESTERN GULF COAST AND COOK INLET REGION HAVE WARMED TO ABOVE
FREEZING. THE WARMER AIR IS SUPPORTING RAIN AS THE PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION TYPE OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA AND KODIAK ISLAND AS
THE PRECIPITATION ATTRIBUTED TO THE DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE PUSH AND
SURFACE FRONT ADVANCES NORTHWARD UP THE GULF COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. FURTHER NORTH... SHOWERS ACROSS THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND
COPPER RIVER BASIN ARE ATTRIBUTED TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL INTERIOR.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS REMAIN IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE JET POISED TO PUMP
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TOWARDS THE GULF OF ALASKA FROM THE NORTH
PACIFIC. HOWEVER...WHILE A RAINY PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH
OF SOUTHCENTRAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY
ON HOW MUCH WILL FALL. THE LATEST NAM MODEL INDICATES THAT THE
COASTAL JET AND DOWNSLOPING WILL BE MORE INTENSE ACROSS
ANCHORAGE...THE MATANUSKA VALLEY AND WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA.
MEANWHILE...THE GFS MODEL INDICATES HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. AS A RESULT...A BLEND OF MODELS WAS PREFERRED.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA BRINGING THE
BEGINNINGS OF RAIN AND WARM AIR TO THE AREA. WITH RIDGING OFF TO
THE EAST AND THE JET CONTINUING TO BRING MORE WARM AIR AND
MOISTURE UP FROM THE SOUTH...RAIN LOOKS TO REMAIN WIDESPREAD INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIEST RAIN LOOKS TO BE MONDAY WHERE HIGH
FREEZING LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN EVEN IN MANY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS LIKE THOMPSON PASS. ANOTHER IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS
STRONGER WINDS THROUGH THE EAST TO WEST ORIENTED GAPS LIKE
TURNAGAIN ARM. WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES AND BE THE STRONGEST DURING THE DAY MONDAY
UNTIL DIMINISHING MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO BRISTOL BAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF KING
SALMON WHERE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW. OVER EASTERN BRISTOL BAY...EASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE
ALEUTIAN/ALASKAN RANGES HAVE SWITCHED THE SNOW OVER TO
RAIN...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. TO THE
NORTH...SNOW WILL DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA THIS EVENING...WHICH ALONG WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
BRING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE WORST
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH
OF BETHEL WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED. WITH NO CURRENT
TRANSPORTABLE SNOW ON THE GROUND ANY BLOWING SNOW WILL BE FROM NEW
SNOWFALL...AND WITH ONLY A FEW INCHES EXPECTED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED. THIS FRONT WILL DEPART THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE
DELTA COAST WILL KEEP RAIN AND SNOW IN THE AREA INTO
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ALASKAN/ALEUTIAN RANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

CONFIDENCE REMAINS GOOD THAT THE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THAT
DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AT SAINT GEORGE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
LARGELY REMAIN SOUTH OF SAINT PAUL ISLAND...SO THE BLIZZARD
WARNING REMAINS JUST FOR SAINT GEORGE ISLAND THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE THE GALE FORCE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MAINLY THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS...SOUTHERN BERING SEA...AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS.
THIS FRONT WILL THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING LATE
TONIGHT...AND BRING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER TO REGION WITH LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WINDS FALLING BELOW SMALL CRAFT.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK AS A STOUT
NORTHEAST PACIFIC RIDGE KEEPS WARM AND MOIST AIR FROM THE
SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC FOCUSED ON THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND IN DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES RUNNING WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
ALASKA...ALONG WITH ABUNDANT RAINFALL AS SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES
MOVE INTO THE REGION. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A
BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE WET CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHCENTRAL AK
BEGINNING ON THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD OVER THE AREA
AND THE PRECIPITATION SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND EASTERN
BERING. HOWEVER...THE WET PATTERN WILL THEN QUICKLY RETURN BY THE
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE IS NUDGED BACK TO THE EAST BY ANOTHER LOW
APPROACHING THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE
EASTERN BERING...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST
TO WEST ACROSS THE BERING AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 195 AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY 155
MARINE...GALES 119 125 177 178 179 180 181 411 412 413 414

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RD/EN
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEK
LONG TERM...CB

The office that day

Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 28, 3:34 AM AKDTBrisk Wind AdvisoryAFC36 hr
Mar 28, 3:34 AM AKDTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC7 days
Mar 28, 3:34 AM AKDTHeavy Freezing Spray WarningAFC12 hr
Mar 28, 10:14 AM AKDTAshfall AdvisoryAFC23 hr
Mar 28, 3:05 PM AKDTGale WarningAFC13 hr
Mar 28, 3:05 PM AKDTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC8 days
Mar 28, 3:05 PM AKDTHeavy Freezing Spray WarningAFC48 hr
Mar 28, 3:15 PM AKDTGale WarningAFC12 hr
Mar 28, 3:15 PM AKDTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC4 days

Nearby

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2016Every small craft advisory in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.