Gale Warning 242, NWS Anchorage, AK

261 
FZAK61 PAFC 291136
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
336 AM AKDT TUE MAR 29 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-300215-
336 AM AKDT TUE MAR 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL CROSS THE GULF THROUGH WED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF WED.

$$

PKZ351-300215-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
336 AM AKDT TUE MAR 29 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 13 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ352-300215-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
336 AM AKDT TUE MAR 29 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 16 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
408 AM AKDT MON MAR 28 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH OF ADAK
SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST AS IT WEAKENS. THE REMNANTS OF ITS FRONT
EXTENDS IN AN ARC FROM THE LOW THROUGH AMCHITKA TO THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS TO A TRIPLE POINT LOW IN BRISTOL BAY . A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS EAST FROM THIS TRIPLE POINT LOW TO ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST WITH THE COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW TO ANOTHER LOW
WELL SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA.

A STRONG 100 KT JET FROM THE SOUTH IS SUPPORTING THE DEEP WARM
MOIST ADVECTION INTO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. THE WARM AIR HAS NOT
BEEN ABLE TO DISLODGE THE COLDER AIR IN THE NORTHERN SUSITNA
VALLEY AND IN THOMPSON PASS THUS SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING FROM
TALKEETNA NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND IN THE PASS. THE STRONG
CROSS BARRIER FLOW HAS RESULTED IN THE CLASSIC RAIN SHADOW ALONG
THE LEE OF THE CHUGACH AND KENAI MOUNTAINS. RAIN HAS BEEN MODERATE
TO HEAVY ON THE COASTAL SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH NEARLY AN INCH
FALLING IN THE PAST 12 HOURS IN PORTAGE AND 0.80 INCHES IN CORDOVA
TO AROUND A HALF INCH THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND AREA.

THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND BRISTOL
BAY HAS RESULTED IN AN ABRUPT END TO THE PRECIPITATION FOLLOWED BY
LOWER CLOUDS AND SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. THE WRAP AROUND SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP THE BRISTOL BAY REGION CLOUDY WITH A
CONTINUED THREAT OF PRECIPITATION.

THE FRONT NOW WEAKENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA DELINEATES
THE STRONG EAST NORTHEAST WIND FROM THE WEAKER SOUTHERLY WIND.
THIS FRONT DID NOT PRODUCE AS MUCH SNOW AS ANTICIPATED IN THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS OR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. WIND WAS SUFFICIENT IN
BOTH REGIONS TO SUPPORT THE BLIZZARD AND BLOWING SNOW CONDITIONS
HOWEVER NOT ENOUGH TRANSPORTABLE SNOW FELL TO RESULT IN THESE
CONDITIONS PROMPTING US TO CANCEL THE BLIZZARD WARNING AND BLOWING
SNOW ADVISORIES.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS REMAIN IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM WITH RESPECT TO KEEPING THE JET POINTED
TO THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND REGION AND SOUTHERN MAINLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY THEN BENDING BACK TO THE WEST WEDNESDAY. AS IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THE DIFFERENCES ARE MORE SIGNIFICANT IN THE
MODEL QPF. AS IS TYPICAL THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS MORE
ACCURATELY ACCOUNT FOR THE CROSS BARRIER DOWN SLOPE DRYING WHILE
THE MORE COURSE RESOLUTION MODELS PAINT A LARGER AREA OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL REGION. THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS ALSO MORE ACCURATELY DEPICT THE ANTICIPATED
COASTAL BARRIER JET. THE MORNING FORECAST RELY MORE ON THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA THROUGH TONIGHT IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL
SEE THE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN...WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS.
THE SUSITNA VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW THIS MORNING...WITH
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SEEING SOME SNOW THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. VALDEZ
AS WELL AS SOME PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA WILL ALSO
SEE SNOW THIS MORNING THEN CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
MAIN "FIRE HOSE" OF PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST ON
TUESDAY...WITH SOME SHOWERS REMAINING OVER THE AREA. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL THEN PUSH BACK WESTWARD INTO THE AREA AS THE
NORTH AMERICAN WEST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN GULF.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH COMPACT LOW PRESSURE
CENTER WEST OF CAPE NEWENHAM IS SPREADING LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND STALL OVER THE DELTA
TODAY BRINGING LIGHT AMOUNTS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE REMAINDER
OF THE FRONT STRETCHES OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WHICH WILL BRING
LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL ZONE
STRETCHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FROM KODIAK ISLAND INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE MAINLAND
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A DISTURBANCE RIDING THIS FRONT
WILL SPREAD RAIN FROM THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTWARD TOWARD THE
ALEUTIAN/ALASKA RANGE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FOR THE ALASKA RANGE NEAR THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. AS THE ORIGINAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND MOVES INLAND OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...SPOTTY SNOW WILL MOVE FROM EAST OF BETHEL INTO PARTS OF
THE VALLEY AND GREATER BRISTOL BAY. ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...THE FRONT IN THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND BRISTOL BAY AREA BRINGING WARMER AIR AND RAIN
TO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS IS FALLING APART
BUT WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS. ANOTHER WEAKER SURFACE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND NEAR THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA TODAY. A SHORT PERIOD OF BENIGN WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK AS A STOUT
NORTHEAST PACIFIC RIDGE KEEPS WARM AND MOIST AIR FROM THE
SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC FOCUSED ON THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND IN DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES RUNNING WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
ALASKA...ALONG WITH ABUNDANT RAINFALL AS SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES
MOVE INTO THE REGION. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A
BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE WET CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHCENTRAL AK
BEGINNING ON THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD OVER THE AREA
AND THE PRECIPITATION SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND EASTERN
BERING. HOWEVER...THE WET PATTERN WILL THEN QUICKLY RETURN BY THE
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE IS NUDGED BACK TO THE EAST BY ANOTHER LOW
APPROACHING THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE
EASTERN BERING...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST
TO WEST ACROSS THE BERING AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119 125. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 179.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SAM
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ML
LONG TERM...CB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1039 AM AKDT MON MAR 28 2016

AKZ181-281945-
ALASKA PENINSULA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLD BAY...SAND POINT
1039 AM AKDT MON MAR 28 2016

THIS SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO AN ASHFALL
ADVISORY. PLEASE REFER TO THE ASHFALL ADVISORY AVAILABLE AT
WWAK72PAFC FOR ANY FURTHER UPDATES.