Small Craft Advisory 259, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Mar 22, 2016, 2:49 PM AKDT (22:49 UTC)

Expired

Mar 23, 2016, 3:30 AM AKDT

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

657 
FZAK51 PAFC 222249
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
249 PM AKDT TUE MAR 22 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-231130-
249 PM AKDT TUE MAR 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 973 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW TRACKS TO 100 NM WEST OF KLAWOCK AT
1009 MB BY THU AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES OVER KODIAK
ISLAND AND INTO THE NORTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA TUE NIGHT THEN OVER
THE NORTH GULF COAST WED MORNING. THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA THURSDAY.

$$

PKZ119-231130-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
249 PM AKDT TUE MAR 22 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT.
.WED...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ120-231130-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
249 PM AKDT TUE MAR 22 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ121-231130-
RESURRECTION BAY-
249 PM AKDT TUE MAR 22 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO N
20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.THU THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-231130-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
249 PM AKDT TUE MAR 22 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-231130-
PORT VALDEZ-
249 PM AKDT TUE MAR 22 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-231130-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
249 PM AKDT TUE MAR 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-231130-
VALDEZ ARM-
249 PM AKDT TUE MAR 22 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-231130-
PASSAGE CANAL-
249 PM AKDT TUE MAR 22 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ130-231130-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
249 PM AKDT TUE MAR 22 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-231130-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
249 PM AKDT TUE MAR 22 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ132-231130-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
249 PM AKDT TUE MAR 22 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ136-231130-
CHINIAK BAY-
249 PM AKDT TUE MAR 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ137-231130-
MARMOT BAY-
249 PM AKDT TUE MAR 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ138-231130-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
249 PM AKDT TUE MAR 22 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-231130-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
249 PM AKDT TUE MAR 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-231130-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
249 PM AKDT TUE MAR 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-231130-
KACHEMAK BAY-
249 PM AKDT TUE MAR 22 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS
3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Mar 22, 5:43 AM AKDT, 9 hours 6 minutes earlier.

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
543 AM AKDT TUE MAR 22 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DEPICTING AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDING FROM
THE BRITISH COLUMBIA REGION TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
PANHANDLE AND INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR JUST EAST OF THE SEWARD
PENINSULA. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION. UPSTREAM THERE IS A SHORTWAVE AT
500MB FROM THE BARREN ISLANDS EXTENDING EASTWARD TO THE HAIDA
GWAII REGION THIS MORNING. THE IR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS PICKING UP
THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE AND SHOWING A SWATH OF LOW STRATUS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TRACKING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF.
FARTHER WEST THERE IS AN BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING
FROM THE CENTRAL BERING SEA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN CHAIN
INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. THESE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE SENDING
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA REGION BEFORE EXITING INTO
THE NORTHERN BERING. THE RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING PRECIPITATION
ECHOES MOVING THROUGH THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND BRISTOL BAY
INTERIOR BEFORE CROSSING THE AHKLUN MOUNTAINS AND ENTERING THE YK-
DELTA REGION THIS MORNING. THE CROSS BARRIER FLOW ALONG THE
ALEUTIAN AND ALASKA RANGE WILL WARM THE TEMPERATURES IN THE
BRISTOL BAY REGION. THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FOR THE MOST PART ARE
IN THE MID 30S. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN IN THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA WITH THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE AND THE WARMER
AIR ALOFT RIDING IT. THEREFORE THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL REMAIN THROUGH 1 PM AKDT TODAY FOR THIS
REGION. THE MAJORITY OF THE BERING SEA AND THE CHAIN WILL REMAIN
UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ACCOMPANIED BY COLDER AIR RESULTING IN A
SHOWERY WEATHER REGIME.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES. THE
NAM WAS THE PREFERRED MODEL OF CHOICE DUE TO THE HIGHER RESOLUTION.
THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATE RATHER QUIET
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA...WITH RAIN FALLING MAINLY
ALONG THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA. ELSEWHERE MAINLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOMINATE THE MAINLAND THIS MORNING WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING NORTH
TOWARDS THE GULF COAST IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY ENHANCE SHOWERS
ALONG THE EAST KENAI PENINSULA BY THIS EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
THIS WAVE WILL ALSO TEMPORARILY INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS LOCAL GAPS AND RESULT IN DOWNSLOPING ACROSS
ANCHORAGE...MATANUSKA VALLEY AND THE KENAI PENINSULA.

A MUCH MORE WELL ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
SOUTHERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING STEADY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO KODIAK
ISLAND...A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PREVENT THE LOW FROM
PUSHING INLAND. AS A RESULT...THE MAJORITY OF WINDS AND RAIN WILL
BE LIMITED TO THE GULF COAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PUSHES OFFSHORE...WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS CHANGING
OVER TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING
SINKS SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA. A CHANCE FOR
STEADIER PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH
LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH ACROSS BRISTOL BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE BERING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE AKPEN AND THEN LIFTS
BACK TO THE NORTH. MORE BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE BERING IN A REGION OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW. A
FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF
THE ALEUTIANS AS A WEAK LOW PASSES JUST SOUTH OF THE CHAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

BY THURSDAY A LARGE BUT TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC...ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO MAINLAND ALASKA
WHILE A BROAD TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS THE BERING...ALEUTIANS AND
WELL INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
NORTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN GULF THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHILE A
TROUGH SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST PHASES WITH IT AND GIVES THE
SURFACE LOW A BIT OF EXTRA ENERGY AND A BOOST NORTH. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. ANOTHER STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK IN
FROM THE WEST JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS THE ALASKA
PENINSULA SUNDAY THEN SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE WESTERN
GULF SUNDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC UP INTO NORTHWESTERN CANADA AND A TROUGH DEEPENING TO THE
WEST BETWEEN 180 AND 160W WILL PUT BOTH SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA INTO SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH A SERIES OF FRONTAL WAVES LIFTING
NORTH THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE MOMENT
THE STRONGEST TAP OF MOISTURE APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE CENTERED
AROUND THE KENAI PENINSULA BUT WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THAT.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY 155.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 119 120 130 131 132 138 139.
         STORM WARNING 351 352.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
LONG TERM...JER

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2016Every small craft advisory in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.