Gale Warning 287, NWS Anchorage, AK

657 
FZAK51 PAFC 222249
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
249 PM AKDT TUE MAR 22 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-231130-
249 PM AKDT TUE MAR 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 973 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW TRACKS TO 100 NM WEST OF KLAWOCK AT
1009 MB BY THU AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES OVER KODIAK
ISLAND AND INTO THE NORTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA TUE NIGHT THEN OVER
THE NORTH GULF COAST WED MORNING. THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA THURSDAY.

$$

PKZ119-231130-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
249 PM AKDT TUE MAR 22 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT.
.WED...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ120-231130-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
249 PM AKDT TUE MAR 22 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ121-231130-
RESURRECTION BAY-
249 PM AKDT TUE MAR 22 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO N
20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.THU THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-231130-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
249 PM AKDT TUE MAR 22 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-231130-
PORT VALDEZ-
249 PM AKDT TUE MAR 22 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-231130-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
249 PM AKDT TUE MAR 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-231130-
VALDEZ ARM-
249 PM AKDT TUE MAR 22 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-231130-
PASSAGE CANAL-
249 PM AKDT TUE MAR 22 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ130-231130-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
249 PM AKDT TUE MAR 22 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-231130-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
249 PM AKDT TUE MAR 22 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ132-231130-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
249 PM AKDT TUE MAR 22 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ136-231130-
CHINIAK BAY-
249 PM AKDT TUE MAR 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ137-231130-
MARMOT BAY-
249 PM AKDT TUE MAR 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ138-231130-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
249 PM AKDT TUE MAR 22 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-231130-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
249 PM AKDT TUE MAR 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-231130-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
249 PM AKDT TUE MAR 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-231130-
KACHEMAK BAY-
249 PM AKDT TUE MAR 22 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS
3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
307 PM AKDT MON MAR 21 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN FEATURES ARE A WEAKENING LOW COMPLEX WHICH STRETCHES
FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF OF TO OVER EASTERN BRISTOL AND A WESTWARD
MOVING WAVE OVER COOK INLET. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY BROAD
BAND OF RETURNS OVER WESTERN COOK INLET...WHICH BASED ON SURFACE
TEMPS AND ANCHORAGE SOUNDING SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN. THERE IS ALSO
A SECOND BAND OFF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE MOVING INTO
EASTERN BRISTOL BAY. THE MORNING SOUNDING FROM KING SALMON SHOWED
A STRONG TEMP INVERSION MOST LIKELY CAUSED BY TURBULENT MIXING IN
THE LOWER LAYERS DUE TO STRONG SE CROSS BARRIER FLOW. THAT
SAID...SURFACE TEMPS IN MANY AREAS IN BRISTOL BAY AS OF NOON WERE
STILL BELOW FREEZING...SO MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES
(RAIN/SNOW/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN) ARE THE GENERAL RULE. SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS SHOWING CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS ACROSS THE
NORTH GULF AND COPPER RIVER BEHIND THE WESTWARD ADVANCING WAVE.
KODIAK ISLAND CONTINUES IN THE CLOUDS AND RAIN WITH BROAD EASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE GULF. COLDER AIR AND BROAD NORTHERLY FLOW WITH
SNOW SHOWERS DOMINATE MUCH OF THE ALASKA PEN AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE A SIMILAR HANDLING OF THE BROAD SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND
PRECIPITATION (QPF) FIELDS. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS HOWEVER A
DOING A BETTER JOB CAPTURING THE MESOSCALE FEATURES. THE OVERALL
MODEL CHOICE ON THIS PACKAGE WILL BE THE NAM THROUGH TUE...THEN A
TRANSITION TOWARD THE GFS WITH THE LOW FEATURES MOVING SOUTH OF
THE ALEUTIANS AND HEADING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GULF ON WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE ANCHORAGE SOUNDING THIS MORNING INDICATED A LAYER OF DRY AIR
FROM THE SURFACE TO 800 MB AND SOME CROSS BARRIER FLOW...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
CHUGACH AND KENAI MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. A MUCH MORE ORGANIZED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH A POTENT LOW LEVEL JET WILL ENTER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA TUESDAY EVENING...SPREADING ANOTHER ROUND
OF WET AND WINDY WEATHER TO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF COAST
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...A RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE
ALASKA MAINLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS RIDGE WILL BLOCK THE
GULF LOW AND LIMIT RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO COASTAL REGIONS TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WARMER AIR IS PUSHING INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT...CREATING A
MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. SOME COLD AIR WILL
REMAIN AT THE SURFACE OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THAT WILL NOT SCOUR
OUT UNTIL AROUND NOON TUESDAY CREATING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
FREEZING RAIN. SOME SHOWERS WILL REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA REMAINS UNDER EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS. THIS FLOW WILL
WEAKEN AND BECOME WESTERLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA
AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SLIDES IN FROM THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
UPPER LEVEL LOWS OVER THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MOVES EAST TO THE EASTERN BERING...AKPEN...AND
NORTH FAR SOUTHWEST GULF FRIDAY AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGING BUILDS
IMPRESSIVELY OVER THE PANHANDLE AND YUKON REGIONS. THE WEAKENING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE MOST LIKELY SPLIT...WITH A PIECE OF
ENERGY MOVING INLAND AND BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW THIS
WEEKEND TO SOUTHERN ALASKA...WHILE THE OTHER PIECE MOVES EAST AND
PUSHES THE RIDGE BACK INTO CANADA. HOWEVER...BY THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK ANOTHER STRONGER RIDGE WILL REPLACE IT FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST...WHILE A LARGE STACKED LOW MOVES TO THE SOUTHERN BERING
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMING
ESTABLISHED FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC TO SOUTHERN ALASKA. THIS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A DEEPENING MOISTURE FETCH HEADING TOWARD
SOUTHERN ALASKA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE VERY LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF MARCH.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY 155.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 119 120 130 131 132 138.
 HEAVY FRZ SPRAY 179 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PEPE
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RF/BL
LONG TERM...CC