Small Craft Advisory 243, NWS Anchorage, AK

277 
FZAK51 PAFC 181734 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
934 AM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016

UPDATED 121

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-190645-
934 AM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A WEATHER FRONT PRESSES NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN TO NORTHERN GULF
COAST AND DECAYS ONSHORE. THE SUPPORTING LOW REMAINS IN THE NORTH
PACIFIC RESULTING IN SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE GULF.

$$

PKZ119-190645-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
934 AM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. NEAR THE COAST...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ120-190645-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
934 AM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ121-190645-
RESURRECTION BAY-
934 AM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016

UPDATED

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
SNOW WITH RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-190645-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
934 AM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-190645-
PORT VALDEZ-
934 AM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-190645-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
934 AM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-190645-
VALDEZ ARM-
934 AM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-190645-
PASSAGE CANAL-
934 AM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-190645-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
934 AM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ131-190645-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
934 AM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ132-190645-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
934 AM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ136-190645-
CHINIAK BAY-
934 AM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ137-190645-
MARMOT BAY-
934 AM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ138-190645-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
934 AM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ139-190645-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
934 AM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ140-190645-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
934 AM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ141-190645-
KACHEMAK BAY-
934 AM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

796 
FZAK51 PAFC 182317
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
317 PM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-191200-
317 PM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A FRONT ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST PERSISTS THERE THROUGH SUN
AFTERNOON. A SECOND WEAK FRONT ENTERS THE SOUTHERN GULF LATE SAT
AFTERNOON AND MERGES WITH THE FRONT ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST
EARLY SUN MORNING. A 995 MB LOW DEVELOPS 75 NM SOUTH OF SITKINAK
ISLAND SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-191200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
317 PM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT INCREASING TO 35 KT NEAR THE
COAST IN THE EVENING. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT SE WIND 35 KT NEAR THE COAST IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ120-191200-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
317 PM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ121-191200-
RESURRECTION BAY-
317 PM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT IN THE EARLY EVENING DIMINISHING TO 10 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT DIMINISHING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-191200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
317 PM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-191200-
PORT VALDEZ-
317 PM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ127-191200-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
317 PM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-191200-
VALDEZ ARM-
317 PM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE WIND 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE WIND 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-191200-
PASSAGE CANAL-
317 PM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-191200-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
317 PM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ131-191200-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
317 PM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ132-191200-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
317 PM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT N OF
DANGEROUS CAPE IN THE EVENING. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ136-191200-
CHINIAK BAY-
317 PM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ137-191200-
MARMOT BAY-
317 PM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ138-191200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
317 PM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ139-191200-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
317 PM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ140-191200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
317 PM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ141-191200-
KACHEMAK BAY-
317 PM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
316 PM AKDT THU MAR 17 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN FEATURES DRIVING ALASKA WEATHER ARE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC ACCOMPANIED BY A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO THE BERING SEA. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS
FROM THE NORTHERN ARCTIC OVER THE WESTERN MAINLAND. AT THE SURFACE
A SERIES OF TROUGHS ARE PUSHING NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHCENTRAL
REGION...WEAKENING AS THEY DO SO. HOWEVER THE ORIENTATION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MAINLAND COMBINED WITH THE RIDGING IS
BRINGING STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL
REGION...ENSURING ADEQUATE MOISTURE TO GENERATE SHOWERS UNDER THE
INSTABILITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE INCREASING MOISTURE IN
THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION CAN BE SEEN ON MIDDLETON ISLAND RADAR AS
IT APPROACHES THE MAINLAND. THIS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE
CLOUDS AND BRING MOSTLY SNOW TO THE ENTIRE AREA AS AN ACCOMPANYING
SURFACE TROUGH TRANSITS FROM THE EAST. OUT WEST THE NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW IS GENERATING CLEAR SKIES AND OFFSHORE WINDS FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH CAUSING SOME SHOWERY
ACTIVITY FOR THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS THIS MORNING ARE DOING AN INTERESTING REPEAT OF TUESDAY
NIGHT'S/WEDNESDAY'S WEATHER OVER SOUTHCENTRAL. THE SYNOPTIC
SITUATION SEEMS VERY SIMILAR AND THE MODELS SEEM TO BE IN
AGREEMENT THAT SOMETHING IS GOING TO HAPPEN OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL...COPPER RIVER BASIN...AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.
HOWEVER THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SEEMS
TO BE WIDELY VARIABLE...WITH GFS INDICATING A TEMPERATURE PROFILE
THAT WOULD LEND ITSELF TO RAIN AND EC/NAM SHOWING MORE OF A SNOW
SITUATION. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE
OUTLIER...AND IS CURRENTLY UNDERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
IN PLACE...THE NAM SOLUTION WAS CHOSEN FOR THE SHORT TERM. IN THE
WEST NAM WAS CHOSEN FOR BLENDING PURPOSES BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES
ARE LESS IMPACTFUL WITH LITTLE WEATHER OCCURRING OUT THAT WAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND IS WEAKENING
AND THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE COMING AROUND TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE FRONT MOVING INTO
THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST. MUCH OF THE SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS DIMINISHING TODAY ACROSS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.

A WARM FRONT IS APPROACHING THE GULF COAST TODAY ALTHOUGH MINIMAL
WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INLAND AS THE SYSTEM
OCCLUDES TODAY. THE STRONG OCCLUSION WILL PUSH TO THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF ALASKA TONIGHT RESULTING IN GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF
OF ALASKA TO SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. THIS OCCLUSION WILL WEAKEN AS
IT APPROACHES THE COAST.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF FRONT WILL BE ENTRAINED INTO
THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
REGION AND ANCHORAGE BOWL AND MATSU VALLEYS. THIS DEVELOPING
PATTERN HAS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW
FOR THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND LATE FRI NIGHT AND INTO SAT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MAINLAND THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE SURFACE. CLEAR SKY WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW AVERAGE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER
SOME MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL START TO STREAM IN OVER THE
ALASKA PENINSULA. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND
INTO SATURDAY. LATE SATURDAY A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL
RETURN SNOW TO THE MAINLAND...MAINLY ALONG THE ALASKA/ALEUTIAN
RANGE THEN SPREADING WESTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL FIRST BRING SNOW TO THE AKPEN
THEN IT WILL CHANGE TO RAIN OVERNIGHT. TOWARD MORNING THE SAME
TRANSITION IS IN STORE FOR UNALASKA. THAT FRONT WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE TOMORROW LEAVING THOSE AREAS UNDER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.
A COMPACT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN/CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL BRING SNOW AND WIND TO
MAINLY THE RAT ISLANDS. ON SATURDAY THE FRONT AND LOW WILL COMBINE
OVER THE CENTRAL CHAIN AND BRING MORE LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE BROAD NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE BERING
SEA.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OUT SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH IS DURING
THE PEAK PERIOD FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND
SOUTHCENTRAL. AT THIS TIME...THE UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ALASKA
WILL CONTINUE TO DIG TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST COAST THROUGH SUNDAY
BRINGING ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE KENAI
TO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE
NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE KENAI TO THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND AS SHORTWAVES FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW. THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR ALONG EASTERN FACING SLOPES OF
SOUTHCENTRAL. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR THIS WEEKEND IS PRECIPITATION
TYPE AS A WARMER AIR MASS ADVECTS FROM THE GULF INTO THE MAINLAND.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK A WET PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST BECOMES THE
MAIN FOCUS AS IT TRACKS INTO THE EASTERN BERING AND PINWHEELS
STRONGER SHORTWAVES AROUND ITS CENTER INTO TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE SNOW...WITH MIXED TYPES ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL. A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION WILL COME MID WEEK
AS THE NEXT NORTH PACIFIC LOW REORGANIZES IN NORTH PACIFIC.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 130 131 132 136 137 138 150 155 165 172.
 HEAVY FRZ SPRAY 160 179 180 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...LF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SA
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ML
LONG TERM...KH