Gale Warning 282, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Mar 18, 2016, 3:17 PM AKDT (23:17 UTC)

Expired

Mar 19, 2016, 4:00 AM AKDT

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

796 
FZAK51 PAFC 182317
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
317 PM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-191200-
317 PM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A FRONT ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST PERSISTS THERE THROUGH SUN
AFTERNOON. A SECOND WEAK FRONT ENTERS THE SOUTHERN GULF LATE SAT
AFTERNOON AND MERGES WITH THE FRONT ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST
EARLY SUN MORNING. A 995 MB LOW DEVELOPS 75 NM SOUTH OF SITKINAK
ISLAND SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-191200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
317 PM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT INCREASING TO 35 KT NEAR THE
COAST IN THE EVENING. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT SE WIND 35 KT NEAR THE COAST IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ120-191200-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
317 PM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ121-191200-
RESURRECTION BAY-
317 PM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT IN THE EARLY EVENING DIMINISHING TO 10 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT DIMINISHING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-191200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
317 PM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-191200-
PORT VALDEZ-
317 PM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ127-191200-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
317 PM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-191200-
VALDEZ ARM-
317 PM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE WIND 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE WIND 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-191200-
PASSAGE CANAL-
317 PM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-191200-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
317 PM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ131-191200-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
317 PM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ132-191200-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
317 PM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT N OF
DANGEROUS CAPE IN THE EVENING. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ136-191200-
CHINIAK BAY-
317 PM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ137-191200-
MARMOT BAY-
317 PM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ138-191200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
317 PM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ139-191200-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
317 PM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ140-191200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
317 PM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ141-191200-
KACHEMAK BAY-
317 PM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Mar 18, 5:47 AM AKDT, 9 hours 30 minutes earlier.

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
547 AM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHWARD AND IS
LOCATED NEAR PRUDHOE BAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING
THROUGH THE BROOKS RANGE INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA. AT 300MB THERE IS
A 100 KNOT NORTHWESTERLY JET STREAK THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
COASTLINE NEAR POINT HOPE EXTENDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH KOTZEBUE
SOUND INTO THE LOWER YUKON VALLEY BEFORE ENTERING THE ANCHORAGE
BOWL. THIS IS BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND
THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION. WHILE OVER THE LOWER COPPER RIVER BASIN
THERE IS A SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAK THAT IS EXITING THE REGION.
THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE CAN BE SEEN WELL ON THE IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTING A SHARP CONTRAST SHOWING THE EDGE OF THE CLOUDS
STREAMING INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
THE REMAINS OF THE SHORTWAVE IS PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
GLENNALLEN AND THE VALDEZ REGION THIS MORNING. OUT WEST IN THE
EASTERN/NORTHERN BERING SEA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHWEST REGION. THIS IS
RESULTING IN OFFSHORE WINDS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WIND CHILLS.
WHILE EVEN FARTHER OUT WEST THERE IS A WEAK NORTH PACIFIC LOW
APPROACHING THE WESTERN CHAIN JUST SOUTH OF KISKA. THE SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS SHOWING A DECENT COMMA CLOUD LOCATED SOUTH OF THE
WESTERN CHAIN WITH A WEATHER FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
AFOREMENTIONED REGION. THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE COINCIDES WITH A
SOUTHERLY 80 KNOT JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH THE ADAK REGION AND IS
HELPING TO STREAM THE MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL/WESTERN BERING.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW POSITIONED OVER THE NORTH SLOPE REGION. BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THE NORTHWESTERLY JET STREAK DIPS DOWN INTO THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL. THIS WILL PUT THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET
STREAK OVER ANCHORAGE AND WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY DYNAMIC LIFT
FOR KICKING OFF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AOR. SINCE WE ALREADY
HAVE THE COLD AIR IN PLACE...ALL THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS
ALL SNOW FOR THE ANCHORAGE BOWL...MAT-SU VALLEYS...PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
SYNOPTIC DYNAMICS ARE SHOWING A UNIFORM SNOW EVENT WITH THE GFS
STARTING THE PRECIPITATION IN THE ANCHORAGE BOWL SLIGHTLY EARLIER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE
GFS ARE SHOWING UP TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE ANCHORAGE BOWL...
VERSUS THE NAM HAVING UP TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. BY
SATURDAY EVENING THERE WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGING IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GULF. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN AS WE HEAD INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE AND
THE PREFERRED MODELS OF CHOICE WERE THE NAM/GFS AND THE GEM-REG.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE GREATEST FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM CERTAINLY
REMAINS SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION. FOR
ANCHORAGE...MODELS STILL INDICATE QUITE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER ANCHORAGE AND
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENS ANY DOWNSLOPING WINDS. IN ADDITION...MODELS
INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL JET ENTRANCE REGION WILL BE FAVORABLY
LOCATED OVER ANCHORAGE. THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY ONCE THIS
TROUGH BEGINS TO PASS WESTWARD OF ANCHORAGE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE MOST RECENT MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS MORE RIDGING ACROSS
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN A GREATER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA.
THEREFORE...SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND STRONGER
DOWNSLOPING ARE MORE LIKELY. IF THIS TREND VERIFIES...IT WOULD
TEND TO LIMIT SNOW TOTALS FOR ANCHORAGE STARTING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

MODELS STILL INDICATE COPIOUS PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL JET TO
REINFORCE ONSHORE UPSLOPE FLOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS ARE NOW
FAVORING HEAVIER SNOW TO OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA
INSTEAD OF ACROSS THE EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. IN
ADDITION...THIS LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO BRING WARMER AIR INTO
THE SOUND...WHICH WILL LIKELY WARM TEMPERATURES ENOUGH FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION BY SATURDAY MORNING FOR VALDEZ.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE FOR CLEAR SKIES AND SOME
GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. ACROSS THE ALASKA
PENINSULA...A BROAD LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL BATTLE WITH THE
DRY NORTHEAST WINDS FROM THE MAINLAND. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW IN THEIR FORECAST. BY SATURDAY...A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF AK. AS THIS SLIDES THROUGH...IT WILL REINFORCE SOME VERY COLD
AIR AND SHOULD SERVE TO WEAKEN THE SURFACE WINDS. THAT SAID...MANY
PLACES ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER WILL SEE LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW
ZERO SUNDAY MORNING. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLIDES
SOUTHWEST...IT WILL ALLOW WARM AND MOIST AIR TO START TO CREEP
OVER THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SNOW TO THOSE AREAS LATE SAT INTO SUN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A WEAK WARM OCCLUSION IS CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH DUTCH TOWARD
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. WHILE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WAS SNOW OVERNIGHT...WE ARE NOW STARTING TO SEE
THINGS TURN OVER TO RAIN. MEANWHILE...A RATHER COMPACT LOW IS
APPROACHING ADAK FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL
INTERACT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND KEEP SNOW CHANCES HIGH
ACROSS THAT AREA INTO LATE SAT. ELSEWHERE...GUSTY OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL MAKE FOR LOW END GALE-FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING.
AS THE COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
WEEKEND...THIS SHOULD SERVE TO REORIENT THE FLOW FROM
NORTHEASTERLY TO MORE NORTHERLY BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OUT SUNDAY MORNING...DURING THE
PEAK PERIOD FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND
SOUTHCENTRAL. AT THIS TIME...THE UPPER LOW OVER OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH OVER BRISTOL BAY BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WHERE IT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO FEED IN ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALONG SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW FROM THE KENAI TO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY
ALONG THE KENAI TO THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AS
SHORTWAVES FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR ALONG EASTERN FACING SLOPES OF SOUTHCENTRAL.
THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR THIS WEEKEND IS PRECIPITATION TYPE AS A
WARMER AIR MASS ADVECTS FROM THE GULF INTO THE MAINLAND.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK A WET PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST BECOMES THE
MAIN FOCUS AS IT TRACKS INTO THE EASTERN BERING AND PINWHEELS
STRONGER SHORTWAVES AROUND ITS CENTER INTO TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE SNOW...WITH MIXED TYPES ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL. A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION WILL COME TUESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE THE NEXT NORTH PACIFIC LOW REORGANIZES IN NORTH
PACIFIC AND HEADS INTO THE GULF BY WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...138 150 155 160 165 172 180.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MSO
LONG TERM...TP

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2016Every gale warning in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.