Small Craft Advisory 23, NWS Anchorage, AK

318 
FZAK51 PAFC 072357
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
257 PM AKST THU JAN 7 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-081245-
257 PM AKST THU JAN 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GULF THROUGH THU MORNING. A
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN GULF THU AND MOVE TO THE NORTHERN
GULF BY FRI NIGHT...THEN DISSIPATE SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-081245-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
257 PM AKST THU JAN 7 2016

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT BY MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...E WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 19 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ120-081245-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
257 PM AKST THU JAN 7 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT BY MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ121-081245-
RESURRECTION BAY-
257 PM AKST THU JAN 7 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. SNOW.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-081245-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
257 PM AKST THU JAN 7 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-081245-
PORT VALDEZ-
257 PM AKST THU JAN 7 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-081245-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
257 PM AKST THU JAN 7 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-081245-
VALDEZ ARM-
257 PM AKST THU JAN 7 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-081245-
PASSAGE CANAL-
257 PM AKST THU JAN 7 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. RAIN 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-081245-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
257 PM AKST THU JAN 7 2016

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13
FT BUILDING TO 19 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ131-081245-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
257 PM AKST THU JAN 7 2016

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT DURING THE EVENING.
SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ132-081245-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
257 PM AKST THU JAN 7 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT DURING THE EVENING.
SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ136-081245-
CHINIAK BAY-
257 PM AKST THU JAN 7 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT DURING THE EVENING.
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ137-081245-
MARMOT BAY-
257 PM AKST THU JAN 7 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT DURING THE EVENING.
SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ138-081245-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
257 PM AKST THU JAN 7 2016

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT DURING THE EVENING.
SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ139-081245-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
257 PM AKST THU JAN 7 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ140-081245-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
257 PM AKST THU JAN 7 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-081245-
KACHEMAK BAY-
257 PM AKST THU JAN 7 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
450 PM AKST WED JAN 6 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN FEATURE DOMINATING THE ALASKA WEATHER MAP TODAY IS AN
IMPRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS SPINNING OVER ATKA. CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN IMPRESSIVE FRONT THAT STRETCHES
WELL INTO THE PACIFIC...AND IS STREAMING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARDS. THIS FRONT HAS ALREADY SUPPORTED
SEVERAL GUSTS ABOVE HURRICANE STRENGTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH STEADY RAIN. ALONG THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THIS LOW...A LOW LEVEL JET IS DEVELOPING...AND WILL
SUPPORT STRONG GUSTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL OMEGA BLOCK OVER NORTHWEST
CANADA IS SUPPORTING GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ONLY IN THE NEAR SHORT
TERM. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE THAT
THE SURFACE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE
BERING. HOWEVER...THERE IS MUCH MORE DISCREPANCY ON HOW AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE EVOLVES TOWARD THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. THE
GFS AND NAM FAVOR A MORE ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL WAVE...WHILE THE
ECMWF FAVORS A MORE CONSOLIDATED UPPER LOW. THE MORE CONSISTENT
ECMWF SOLUTION WAS FAVORED.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE YUKON CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE REGION THIS EVENING...BUT WILL EVENTUALLY LOSE INFLUENCE AS
A MEANDERING NORTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS RATHER WEAK AND
LACKING IN MOISTURE...SO RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
REMAIN RELEGATED TO COASTAL MOUNTAINS...WITH A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS
THE EASTERN COPPER BASIN. THEREAFTER...A SERIES OF LOWS FORMING
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP BERING SEA LOW WILL CROSS OVER THE
ALASKA PENINSULA...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
GULF OF ALASKA...AND SPREADING MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO COASTAL
LOCATIONS. THE MOST PERSISTENT RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS WILL FROM
KODIAK TO THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA. THIS PATTERN WILL YIELD A
VERY STRONG INLAND DOWNSLOPE SHADOW...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
INLAND LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A RELATIVELY QUIET NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND
AS WEAK TRANSITORY RIDGING SUPPORTS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE AREA. A CHANCE OF SNOW WILL RETURN TO THE BRISTOL BAY AND
KUSKOKWIM DELTA REGIONS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAKENING
BERING FRONT ARRIVES ALONG THE COAST...WITH THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION THEN CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT/INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH BEGINS TO NOSE INTO THE SOUTHEAST BERING AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING NORTH PACIFIC LOW. WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM...SUPPORTING AN EVENTUAL CHANGEOVER
TO RAIN ACROSS THE BRISTOL BAY REGION FOR ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
DOES FALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE STORM FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY IMPACTING A WIDE SWATH OF THE
BERING WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE DEEP LOW NORTH OF
ATKA BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND TRACKS NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA. THIS WILL LEAVE MUCH OF THE BERING IN A SHOWERY REGIME
THROUGH FRIDAY BENEATH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW...WITH THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHEAST BERING AND ALASKA PENINSULA
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS SYSTEM
IS NOT WELL HANDLED BY THE MODELS AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE ALASKA
PENINSULA ON FRIDAY...WITH SOME GUIDANCE TRACKING THE LOW RAPIDLY
INTO THE EASTERN BERING AND OTHER MODELS KEEPING IT SOUTH OF THE
AKPEN INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS LENDS BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE TO
THE FORECAST BY FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY WITH RESPECT TO WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A GALE FORCE LOW MOVES NORTH ACROSS
THE ALASKA PENINSULA INTO THE BERING SEA. RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE
MOST STEADY ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW
EXTENDING NORTHWEST THROUGH THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN BERING SEA.
ADDITIONALLY...STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW
TRACK WILL BRING RAIN TO MAINLY UPSLOPE LOCATIONS FROM SOUTHWEST
ALASKA TO THE GULF COAST REGION.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED...WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN THAT HAS BROUGHT WARM AIR AND PLENTIFUL
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO MAINLAND ALASKA FOR THE LAST WEEK. THE
BERING/ALEUTIAN BASIN WILL BEAR THE BRUNT OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER
FOR THE NEXT WEEK WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY
PRECIPITATION. MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL SEE
MULTIPLE BUT RELATIVELY MINOR ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION (MOSTLY
RAIN) DURING THE PERIOD WITH WINDS STAYING MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.
WITH RELATIVELY HIGHER PRESSURE INLAND AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
OVER THE BERING SEA...NORTH PACIFIC...AND GULF OF ALASKA...NORTHERLY
WINDS AT THE LOWEST LEVELS OF COOK INLET WILL KEEP THE MAIN
POPULATION CENTERS MOSTLY DRY.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 187 195.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 138 173 174 175 176 177 179 185.
         GALE WARNING 120 130 131 132 136 137 150 155 165
                      170 172 178 180 181.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING 181.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EN
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JA
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
LONG TERM...CC