Small Craft Advisory 212, NWS Anchorage, AK

662 
FZAK51 PAFC 071228
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
328 AM AKST MON MAR 7 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-080115-
328 AM AKST MON MAR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF MOVES TO OVER THE EASTERN GULF BY
THIS AFTERNOON. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
DISSIPATES BY THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG FRONT APPROACHES THE
SOUTHERN GULF TUE MORNING...THEN MOVES TO OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN GULF BY LATE TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-080115-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
328 AM AKST MON MAR 7 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT 25 KT ALONG THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT...EXCEPT E 20 KT ALONG THE COAST IN
THE EVENING. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ120-080115-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
328 AM AKST MON MAR 7 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ121-080115-
RESURRECTION BAY-
328 AM AKST MON MAR 7 2016

.TODAY...N WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND
SNOW.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-080115-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
328 AM AKST MON MAR 7 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-080115-
PORT VALDEZ-
328 AM AKST MON MAR 7 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-080115-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
328 AM AKST MON MAR 7 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-080115-
VALDEZ ARM-
328 AM AKST MON MAR 7 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-080115-
PASSAGE CANAL-
328 AM AKST MON MAR 7 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-080115-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
328 AM AKST MON MAR 7 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ131-080115-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
328 AM AKST MON MAR 7 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ132-080115-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
328 AM AKST MON MAR 7 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ136-080115-
CHINIAK BAY-
328 AM AKST MON MAR 7 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ137-080115-
MARMOT BAY-
328 AM AKST MON MAR 7 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ138-080115-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
328 AM AKST MON MAR 7 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AND RAIN.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ139-080115-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
328 AM AKST MON MAR 7 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ140-080115-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
328 AM AKST MON MAR 7 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ141-080115-
KACHEMAK BAY-
328 AM AKST MON MAR 7 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
326 AM AKST SUN MAR 6 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
EASTERN BERING. THE LOW EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHEAST CONNECTING WITH A
WEAKER LOW CENTER SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE. THE OVERALL FLOW CREATED
BY THIS BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS BRINGING SOUTHEAST FLOW TO
THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND IS PULLING UP WARMER AIR WITH IT. HIGH
PRESSURE SITS TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN LOW WHICH HELPS TO BRING
COLD NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BERING.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM AND ARE
STARTING TO LOCK IN ON A MUCH WEAKER LOW CENTER FORMING IN THE
WESTERN GULF NEAR KODIAK ISLAND TONIGHT. THE NEXT BIG LOW MOVES
TOWARDS THE GULF TUESDAY AND WHILE ALL THE GUIDANCE HAS THE SAME
GENERAL IDEA...THERE ARE MINOR DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT AND
INTENSITY OF THE LOW. THE DEEPER SOLUTIONS OF THE NAM AND GFS
WOULD RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS MOVING IN AS OPPOSED TO THE WEAKER
EC AND GEM. THE STRONGER SOLUTION OF THE GFS WAS CHOSEN FOR THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER INTERIOR ALASKA AND CANADA
WITH UPPER LEVEL LOWS OVER THE BERING AND NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THE
MAIN MOISTURE BAND IS OVER KODIAK ISLAND AND THE SOUTHERN KENAI
PENINSULA WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER KODIAK AND STRETCHING
EASTWARD. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KODIAK ISLAND. THE
MOISTURE BAND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT AND WORK
ITS WAY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRINGING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BACK INTO
INLAND AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE
WESTERN GULF TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
KEEPING PRECIPITATION MAINLY CONFINED TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
ALONG THE WESTERN CAPES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG
THE MOUNTAIN RANGES OF BRISTOL BAY. THE UPPER LOW IN THE EASTERN
BERING SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH BRINGING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW JUST OFF
THE SURFACE OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...ADVECTING A WARMER AIR
MASS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION
FOR BRISTOL BAY LATE THIS MORNING BECOMING RAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THEN CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID 30S AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...HENCE
CONTINUED MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA DIMINISHING LATER TODAY AS
A SURFACE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO KODIAK ISLAND. WINDS ACROSS THE
ALASKA PENINSULA BACK OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THIS APPROACHING LOW. THE LOW BEGINS TO ADVANCE NORTH EARLY MONDAY
BRINGING WIDE SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS BRISTOL BAY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECT ALONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND DELTA...HOWEVER HIGHER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG THE COAST WILL ALLOW FOR INTERMITTENT SNOW
SHOWERS AS WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE AWAY FROM THE BERING LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BERING PERSISTS THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH EMBEDDED SNOW SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS ALONG THE EASTERN BERING. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIG
SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN BERING TODAY. DOWNWARD FORCING ALONG THIS
WAVE WILL MIX STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BERING. THE STRONGEST GALE WINDS SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND THEN INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE EASTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS AND
ALASKA PENINSULA WILL SEE VARYING WIND CONDITIONS AS A WEAK
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH TONIGHT CROSSING
INTO THE PACIFIC ON MONDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

BY MONDAY NIGHT A LARGE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL BE CENTERED
SOUTH OF THE GULF AT 50N 145W WITH A SMALLER LOW IN THE SOUTHEAST
GULF JUST WEST OF DIXON ENTRANCE. RIDGING WILL EXTEND FROM
WESTERN CANADA INTO INTERIOR ALASKA. THE SMALLER SYSTEM WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE GULF IN THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHILE THE LARGER LOW
DRIFTS GRADUALLY NORTH AND SENDS AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM UP
INTO THE GULF. AFTER DRIFTING BACK SOUTH MIDWEEK...THE LARGE LOW
WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN GULF ROUGHLY CENTERED
AROUND 50N.

TO THE WEST...NORTHERLY FLOW AND PERSISTENT COLD AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE BERING WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA...ALEUTIANS AND WELL
INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL SWING ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MONDAY NIGHT THEN WEAKEN
RAPIDLY TUESDAY. A SECOND STRONGER SYSTEM WILL REACH THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY THEN CONTINUE EAST ALONG THE CHAIN THURSDAY
BEFORE DIVING SOUTHEAST TO GET CAUGHT UP IN THE BIG UPPER LOW
SOUTH OF THE GULF ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW
THE SAME STORM TRACK FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 175 176 177 185 411 412 413
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 179 180 185 411 412 414

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...JR