Gale Warning 217, NWS Anchorage, AK

664 
FZAK61 PAFC 072355
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
255 PM AKST MON MAR 7 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-081430-
255 PM AKST MON MAR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST MOVES INLAND TONIGHT. A STRONG FRONT
APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN GULF TUE MORNING...THEN MOVES INLAND OVER
THE WESTERN GULF BY LATE TUE NIGHT. A 975 MB LOW MOVES FROM THE
PACIFIC TO 53N 148W WEDNESDAY MORNING.

$$

PKZ351-081430-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
255 PM AKST MON MAR 7 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...E WIND 10 TO TO 20 KT INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 15 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ352-081430-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
255 PM AKST MON MAR 7 2016

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 10 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

310 
FZAK61 PAFC 081228
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
328 AM AKST TUE MAR 8 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-090215-
328 AM AKST TUE MAR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF MOVES TO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
GULF COASTS BY LATE TONIGHT...THEN DISSIPATES. A 971 MB LOW NEAR
53N 143W LATE TONIGHT MOVES TO 54N 146W AT 977 MB LATE WED NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-090215-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
328 AM AKST TUE MAR 8 2016

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 6 TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ352-090215-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
328 AM AKST TUE MAR 8 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

895 
FZAK61 PAFC 090002
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
302 PM AKST TUE MAR 8 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-091430-
302 PM AKST TUE MAR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A DECAYING FRONT LINGERS OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST
ALASKA. A 969 MB LOW AT 51N 145W MOVES TO 56N 146W AS A 976 MB
CENTER THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-091430-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
302 PM AKST TUE MAR 8 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ352-091430-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
302 PM AKST TUE MAR 8 2016

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 15 TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

$$

921 
FZAK61 PAFC 091211
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
311 AM AKST WED MAR 9 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-100145-
311 AM AKST WED MAR 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 973 MB LOW NEAR 53N 144W WILL MOVE TO 55N 146W AT 978 MB THU
MORNING THEN DISSIPATE THU EVENING.

$$

PKZ351-100145-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
311 AM AKST WED MAR 9 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 TO 15 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ352-100145-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
311 AM AKST WED MAR 9 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.SUN...N WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

967 
FZAK61 PAFC 100000
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKST WED MAR 9 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-101400-
300 PM AKST WED MAR 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 976 MB LOW NEAR 54N 146W WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF
ON THU. A SERIES OF SURFACE FRONTS WILL CROSS THE GULF THROUGH
FRI.

$$

PKZ351-101400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
300 PM AKST WED MAR 9 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ352-101400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
300 PM AKST WED MAR 9 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
423 PM AKST SUN MAR 6 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A RIDGE PUSHING INTO MAINLAND ALASKA FROM CANADA IS SPREADING GENERALLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE IS STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA TOWARDS
KODIAK ISLAND AND IS SUPPORTING STEADY RAIN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS SUPPORTING LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT
OUTFLOW WINDS THROUGH LOCAL GAPS. ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND...LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD. CURRENTLY IT
IS SPINNING JUST SOUTH OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS...AND HAS BEEN
SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN BERING TODAY.
PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO COVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
IN COLD ADVECTION SHOWERS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
IN THE SHORT TERM...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE FURTHER
WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS. THERE IS ALSO LITTLE DISAGREEMENT ON THE EVENTUAL
DISSIPATION OF A LOW NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA AS IT MOVES INLAND
SOUTH OF JUNEAU. AS A RESULT...A GENERAL BLEND OF HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS WAS USED.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)...

THE RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN OVER INTERIOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A LOW MOVES INTO THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA AND PUSHES A FRONT NORTH TOWARD
THE MAINLAND. IN THE MEANTIME...OUTFLOW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN...THOMPSON PASS AND THE VALDEZ
MARINE AREAS WHICH HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP QUITE
RAPIDLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS
WARMER AIR ALOFT IS MIXED DOWNWARD. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO
WEAKEN BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHICH WOULD ALLOW THESE WINDS TO
DIMINISH AND ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL OFF RAPIDLY LATER
TONIGHT. ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN...SOME ISOLATED PATCHY FOG
IS EXPECTED MAINLY SOUTH OF GLENNALLEN. THE OUTFLOW WINDS SHOULD
HELP KEEP THE AIR MASS MIXED ENOUGH TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT FOG BUT
NEVERTHELESS A FEW AREAS ARE LIKELY TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT. TUESDAY LOOKS TO START OFF AS A BEAUTIFUL DAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR NUDGES BRIEFLY ACROSS THE REGION AND
LEADS TO CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. THE PATTERN
BEGINS TO CHANGE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES FROM THE EAST ACROSS ANCHORAGE AND
THE MAT-SU VALLEYS. THIS RESEMBLES THE PREVIOUS EVENT THAT BROUGHT
NEARLY 2 INCHES OF SNOW TO ANCHORAGE SO IT DOES BEAR SOME WATCHING.
HOWEVER...850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK A BIT WARMER (-3 TO -5 DEGREES C)
WHICH WOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE FOR ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER
THE CHUGACH. WENT AHEAD AND UPPED POPS TO CHANCE BUT WITH SUCH A
SMALL FEATURE IT IS EXPECTED THE MODELS WILL BE FLIPPING BACK AND
FORTH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

ACROSS THE GULF COAST...IT LOOKS LIKE YET ANOTHER PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER IS ON THE HORIZON. A TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHER GULF
WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO KODIAK THROUGH MONDAY AS A CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPS WITHIN THIS TROUGH JUST EAST OF KODIAK. THIS LOW WILL
THEN MOVE NORTH TOWARD THE KENAI PENINSULA ON MONDAY WHERE IT IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE. HOWEVER...THE RESIDUAL TROUGH WILL BRING
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE KENAI PENINSULA LEADING TO
PLENTY OF RAIN (AND SNOW WHERE COLD ENOUGH).

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A TROUGH AXIS MAINLY
STRETCHED OVER THE BRISTOL BAY AREA AND THE FAR WESTERN GULF THIS
EVENING...WITH MORE NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM KING
SALMON SOUTH. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
MAINLY OVER THE BRISTOL BAY AREA BY MONDAY MORNING...AS THE SYSTEM
OVER THE WESTERN GULF TRACKS CLOSER TO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND.
DRIER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND DELTA...HOWEVER SOME INTERMITTENT SNOW
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AS WEAK SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THROUGH THE AREA
ON MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW IN THE EASTERN BERING HAS SHIFTED FURTHER
SOUTH...BRINGING IN SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW JUST
OFF THE SURFACE OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. THIS WILL KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS CLOSE TO THE ALEUTIAN RANGE AND ALONG THE
AKPEN MIXED THROUGH THIS EVENING. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE BACK TO BELOW FREEZING LATER TONIGHT AND THEN CLIMB BACK
INTO THE MID 30S AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...HENCE CONTINUED MIXED
PRECIPITATION TYPES DURING THE DAY THROUGH MID WEEK. OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY...WEAKENING WITH TIME AS THE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF
TRACKS CLOSER TO THE ALEUTIAN RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BERING PERSISTS
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...WITH EMBEDDED SNOW SHOWERS AS LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE EASTERN BERING. THE STRONGEST GUSTS
SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WESTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS
TUESDAY MORNING BRINGING A BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW OFF THE COAST OF KAMCHATKA...WHICH WILL TRACK INTO THE
WESTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN PUSH INTO
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE EASTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA
PENINSULA WILL SEE VARYING WIND CONDITIONS AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH TONIGHT CROSSING
INTO THE PACIFIC ON MONDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7)...

BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE A BROAD LOW IN THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF ALASKA...WITH A DEEPENING NEAR STORM FORCE LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE BERING SEA. WEAKENING ENERGETIC WAVES WRAPPING AROUND
THE PARENT GULF LOW WILL BE SPREADING SOME MOISTURE ALONG THE
COAST...BUT MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIP WILL STAY THERE WITH DRY INLAND
CONDITIONS. THE LONE DISCREPANCY WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA
WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE WHERE SOME MOISTURE MAY INTERACT
FAVORABLY WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...THE BERING TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED POLAR JET WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND MERGE WITH THE GULF
LOW...SENDING MOST OF THE JET ENERGY WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION...AND KEEPING MOST OF INLAND ALASKA DISPLACED FROM THE
STORM TRACK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180 181 185 411 412.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EN
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...JA