Small Craft Advisory 211, NWS Anchorage, AK

518 
FZAK51 PAFC 070004
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
304 PM AKST SUN MAR 6 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-071245-
304 PM AKST SUN MAR 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 988 MB LOW DEVELOPS 60 NM EAST OF KODIAK CITY LATE TONIGHT AND
MOVES INTO SHELIKOF STRAIT MON AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATES. A FRONT
APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN GULF EARLY TUE AND MOVES FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF TO THE EASTERN GULF BY TUE AFTERNOON.


$$

PKZ119-071245-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
304 PM AKST SUN MAR 6 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ120-071245-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
304 PM AKST SUN MAR 6 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ121-071245-
RESURRECTION BAY-
304 PM AKST SUN MAR 6 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-071245-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
304 PM AKST SUN MAR 6 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-071245-
PORT VALDEZ-
304 PM AKST SUN MAR 6 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-071245-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
304 PM AKST SUN MAR 6 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-071245-
VALDEZ ARM-
304 PM AKST SUN MAR 6 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-071245-
PASSAGE CANAL-
304 PM AKST SUN MAR 6 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE THROUGH FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-071245-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
304 PM AKST SUN MAR 6 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ131-071245-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
304 PM AKST SUN MAR 6 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ132-071245-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
304 PM AKST SUN MAR 6 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...E WIND 15 KT
BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ136-071245-
CHINIAK BAY-
304 PM AKST SUN MAR 6 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ137-071245-
MARMOT BAY-
304 PM AKST SUN MAR 6 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ138-071245-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
304 PM AKST SUN MAR 6 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ139-071245-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
304 PM AKST SUN MAR 6 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ140-071245-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
304 PM AKST SUN MAR 6 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ141-071245-
KACHEMAK BAY-
304 PM AKST SUN MAR 6 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
432 PM AKST SAT MAR 5 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A RELATIVELY WEAK PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE GREATLAND...AS A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET LINGERS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF ALASKA...WELL
OUT OF REACH. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT STRETCHES ACROSS BRISTOL
BAY...IS GENERATING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN THIS REGION...WHILE A
SECOND MUCH WEAKER UPPER WAVE IS BRINGING SHOWERS TO PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND. WITH NO LOCAL UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT OR ACCESS TO
MOISTURE...MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA...WITH A
SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE ARCTIC. THIS IS SUPPORTING BROAD NORTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE BERING. THE RESULTING COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
ALL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY...WHILE
A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MAINLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
IN ADDITION...MODEL ENSEMBLES GENERALLY INDICATE AVERAGE TO ABOVE
AVERAGE AGREEMENT...PUTTING FURTHER CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST. THE MAIN SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS LIES IN THE
INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHCENTRAL THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...AS IT IS WEAKLY FORCED AND DIFFICULT FOR MODELS TO
CAPTURE. AS A RESULT...A BLEND OF HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS WAS
FAVORED.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING/AKPEN WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES OVER THE SOUTH MAINLAND TONIGHT...
BRINGING PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
MOST OF THESE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE GULF COAST THIS
EVENING AS DOWNSLOPING FROM THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS WILL PREVENT
ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW STRAY FLURRIES INTO SOUTHCENTRAL. THE
UPPER LOW WILL THEN PINWHEEL TO THE WEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING
FOR SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION TO CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE WILL BE
FOR KODIAK ISLAND AND THE EXTREME SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA WHICH
WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS LOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
PERSISTENT RAIN AND CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...WHICH
WILL THEN SPREAD BACK TOWARDS TO NORTH GULF COAST FOR MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW IS POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN BERING
WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO SAINT LAWRENCE
ISLAND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL MORE COLD AIR INTO THE
SOUTHWEST REGION WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SOME BLOWING SNOW ISSUES ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COASTLINE
FROM HOOPER BAY NORTHWARD THIS EVENING. WHILE WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE ALASKA/ALEUTIAN RANGES ACCOMPANIED BY MOISTURE
SPILLING OVER INTO THE AOR THROUGH REST OF THE WEEKEND. DUE TO THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES ANY PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE A SWATH OF NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE WESTERN CAPES AND ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE FROM ILIAMNA
SOUTHWARD INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
PRODUCING A SHOWERY WEATHER REGIME. THERE WILL BE AREAS OF
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXCEPT FOR NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS FORMING
FROM SAINT PAUL ISLAND SOUTHWARD AND ALONG MAJORITY OF THE CHAIN.
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL FORM JUST NORTH OF
DUTCH HARBOR WHICH WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
EASTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN. WHILE NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE CENTRAL/WESTERN CHAIN NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL BERING.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

BY MONDAY NIGHT A LARGE VERTICALLY STACK LOW WILL BE CENTERED
SOUTH OF THE GULF AT 50N 145W WITH A SMALLER LOW IN THE SOUTHEAST
GULF JUST WEST OF DIXON ENTRANCE. RIDGING WILL EXTEND FROM
WESTERN CANADA INTO INTERIOR ALASKA. THE SMALLER SYSTEM WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE GULF IN THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHILE THE LARGER LOW
DRIFTS GRADUALLY NORTH AND SENDS AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM UP
INTO THE GULF. AFTER DRIFTING BACK SOUTH MIDWEEK THE LARGE LOW
WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN GULF ROUGHLY CENTERED
AROUND 50N.

TO THE WEST...NORTHERLY FLOW AND PERSISTENT COLD AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE BERING WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA...ALEUTIANS AND WELL
INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL SWING ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MONDAY NIGHT THEN WEAKEN
RAPIDLY TUESDAY. A SECOND STRONGER SYSTEM WILL REACH THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY THEN CONTINUE EAST ALONG THE CHAIN THURSDAY
BEFORE DIVING SOUTHEAST TO GET CAUGHT UP IN THE BIG UPPER LOW
SOUTH OF THE GULF ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW
THE SAME STORM TRACK FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 130. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS 179 180 185 411
412 414.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EN
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DEK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...JR