Gale Warning 216, NWS Anchorage, AK

756 
FZAK62 PAFC 070012
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
312 PM AKST SUN MAR 6 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-071445-
312 PM AKST SUN MAR 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 988 MB LOW NEAR 55N 170W MOVES TO 52N 171W EARLY MON AND
BECOMES A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. A
FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA BY TUE MORNING
AND STALLS.

$$

PKZ411-071445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
312 PM AKST SUN MAR 6 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N.
.MON...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N
OF 58N.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...NE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ412-071445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
312 PM AKST SUN MAR 6 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 58N.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF
58N.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ413-071445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
312 PM AKST SUN MAR 6 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY W OF 174W.
.MON...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING
SPRAY W OF 176W.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY W OF 174W.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ414-071445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
312 PM AKST SUN MAR 6 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 58N.
.MON...NE WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 58N.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF
58N.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
432 PM AKST SAT MAR 5 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A RELATIVELY WEAK PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE GREATLAND...AS A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET LINGERS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF ALASKA...WELL
OUT OF REACH. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT STRETCHES ACROSS BRISTOL
BAY...IS GENERATING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN THIS REGION...WHILE A
SECOND MUCH WEAKER UPPER WAVE IS BRINGING SHOWERS TO PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND. WITH NO LOCAL UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT OR ACCESS TO
MOISTURE...MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA...WITH A
SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE ARCTIC. THIS IS SUPPORTING BROAD NORTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE BERING. THE RESULTING COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
ALL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY...WHILE
A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MAINLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
IN ADDITION...MODEL ENSEMBLES GENERALLY INDICATE AVERAGE TO ABOVE
AVERAGE AGREEMENT...PUTTING FURTHER CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST. THE MAIN SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS LIES IN THE
INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHCENTRAL THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...AS IT IS WEAKLY FORCED AND DIFFICULT FOR MODELS TO
CAPTURE. AS A RESULT...A BLEND OF HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS WAS
FAVORED.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING/AKPEN WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES OVER THE SOUTH MAINLAND TONIGHT...
BRINGING PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
MOST OF THESE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE GULF COAST THIS
EVENING AS DOWNSLOPING FROM THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS WILL PREVENT
ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW STRAY FLURRIES INTO SOUTHCENTRAL. THE
UPPER LOW WILL THEN PINWHEEL TO THE WEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING
FOR SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION TO CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE WILL BE
FOR KODIAK ISLAND AND THE EXTREME SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA WHICH
WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS LOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
PERSISTENT RAIN AND CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...WHICH
WILL THEN SPREAD BACK TOWARDS TO NORTH GULF COAST FOR MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW IS POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN BERING
WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO SAINT LAWRENCE
ISLAND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL MORE COLD AIR INTO THE
SOUTHWEST REGION WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SOME BLOWING SNOW ISSUES ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COASTLINE
FROM HOOPER BAY NORTHWARD THIS EVENING. WHILE WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE ALASKA/ALEUTIAN RANGES ACCOMPANIED BY MOISTURE
SPILLING OVER INTO THE AOR THROUGH REST OF THE WEEKEND. DUE TO THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES ANY PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE A SWATH OF NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE WESTERN CAPES AND ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE FROM ILIAMNA
SOUTHWARD INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
PRODUCING A SHOWERY WEATHER REGIME. THERE WILL BE AREAS OF
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXCEPT FOR NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS FORMING
FROM SAINT PAUL ISLAND SOUTHWARD AND ALONG MAJORITY OF THE CHAIN.
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL FORM JUST NORTH OF
DUTCH HARBOR WHICH WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
EASTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN. WHILE NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE CENTRAL/WESTERN CHAIN NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL BERING.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

BY MONDAY NIGHT A LARGE VERTICALLY STACK LOW WILL BE CENTERED
SOUTH OF THE GULF AT 50N 145W WITH A SMALLER LOW IN THE SOUTHEAST
GULF JUST WEST OF DIXON ENTRANCE. RIDGING WILL EXTEND FROM
WESTERN CANADA INTO INTERIOR ALASKA. THE SMALLER SYSTEM WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE GULF IN THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHILE THE LARGER LOW
DRIFTS GRADUALLY NORTH AND SENDS AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM UP
INTO THE GULF. AFTER DRIFTING BACK SOUTH MIDWEEK THE LARGE LOW
WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN GULF ROUGHLY CENTERED
AROUND 50N.

TO THE WEST...NORTHERLY FLOW AND PERSISTENT COLD AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE BERING WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA...ALEUTIANS AND WELL
INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL SWING ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MONDAY NIGHT THEN WEAKEN
RAPIDLY TUESDAY. A SECOND STRONGER SYSTEM WILL REACH THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY THEN CONTINUE EAST ALONG THE CHAIN THURSDAY
BEFORE DIVING SOUTHEAST TO GET CAUGHT UP IN THE BIG UPPER LOW
SOUTH OF THE GULF ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW
THE SAME STORM TRACK FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 130. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS 179 180 185 411
412 414.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EN
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DEK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...JR