Alert archive / Alaska / Small Craft Advisories in 2016

Small Craft Advisory 192, NWS Anchorage, AK

February 29, 2016

NWS Anchorage, AK issued this small craft advisory at Feb 29, 2016, 3:48 AM AKST. It was in force for 11 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Feb 29, 2016, 3:48 AM AKST (12:48 UTC)
Expired
Feb 29, 2016, 2:50 PM AKST
In force
11 hr
Issued by
NWS Anchorage, AK

The text

As transmitted.

376 
FZAK51 PAFC 291248
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
348 AM AKST MON FEB 29 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-010215-
348 AM AKST MON FEB 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A WEATHER FRONT PRESSES OVER SOUTHERN KODIAK ISLAND TOWARDS THE
NORTH GULF COAST BY TUE MORNING. A 993 MB LOW 220 NM SOUTHWEST OF
KLAWOCK MOVES TO 360 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND AS A 999 MB
LOW WED MORNING.

$$

PKZ119-010215-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
348 AM AKST MON FEB 29 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15
FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ120-010215-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
348 AM AKST MON FEB 29 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ121-010215-
RESURRECTION BAY-
348 AM AKST MON FEB 29 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-010215-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
348 AM AKST MON FEB 29 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-010215-
PORT VALDEZ-
348 AM AKST MON FEB 29 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-010215-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
348 AM AKST MON FEB 29 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-010215-
VALDEZ ARM-
348 AM AKST MON FEB 29 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-010215-
PASSAGE CANAL-
348 AM AKST MON FEB 29 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-010215-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
348 AM AKST MON FEB 29 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ131-010215-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
348 AM AKST MON FEB 29 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
17 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ132-010215-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
348 AM AKST MON FEB 29 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
23 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ136-010215-
CHINIAK BAY-
348 AM AKST MON FEB 29 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16
FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ137-010215-
MARMOT BAY-
348 AM AKST MON FEB 29 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 17
FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ138-010215-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
348 AM AKST MON FEB 29 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 25 FT SUBSIDING TO 18 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN
AND SNOW.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ139-010215-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
348 AM AKST MON FEB 29 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ140-010215-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
348 AM AKST MON FEB 29 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ141-010215-
KACHEMAK BAY-
348 AM AKST MON FEB 29 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$
1 follow-up statement
491 
FZAK51 PAFC 292350
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
250 PM AKST MON FEB 29 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-011230-
250 PM AKST MON FEB 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A STRONG FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF
COAST MON NIGHT. RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE GULF THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-011230-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
250 PM AKST MON FEB 29 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT...EXCEPT E 25 KT TOWARD THE COAST. SEAS
16 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15
FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ120-011230-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
250 PM AKST MON FEB 29 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ121-011230-
RESURRECTION BAY-
250 PM AKST MON FEB 29 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING N 
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND
SNOW.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT TOWARD EVENING. SEAS 2
FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ125-011230-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
250 PM AKST MON FEB 29 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING NE WIND 10 KT.
SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-011230-
PORT VALDEZ-
250 PM AKST MON FEB 29 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-011230-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
250 PM AKST MON FEB 29 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-011230-
VALDEZ ARM-
250 PM AKST MON FEB 29 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-011230-
PASSAGE CANAL-
250 PM AKST MON FEB 29 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 20 KT DEVELOPING LATE AFTERNOON NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT.
SNOW IN THE MORNING.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 20 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2
FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ130-011230-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
250 PM AKST MON FEB 29 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT BY MIDNIGHT...THEN
DIMINISHING TO SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING NE 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ131-011230-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
250 PM AKST MON FEB 29 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT BY MIDNIGHT...THEN
DIMINISHING TO SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16
FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ132-011230-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
250 PM AKST MON FEB 29 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE EVENING...THEN
DIMINISHING TO SE 25 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17
FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ136-011230-
CHINIAK BAY-
250 PM AKST MON FEB 29 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE EVENING...THEN
DIMINISHING TO SE 25 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO E 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ137-011230-
MARMOT BAY-
250 PM AKST MON FEB 29 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE EVENING...THEN
DIMINISHING TO SE 25 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT
SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ138-011230-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
250 PM AKST MON FEB 29 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE EVENING...THEN
DIMINISHING TO SE 25 KT BY MORNING. SEAS 19 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT
TOWARD MORNING. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT
SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ139-011230-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
250 PM AKST MON FEB 29 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE EVENING...THEN DIMINISHING
TO 15 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ140-011230-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
250 PM AKST MON FEB 29 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ141-011230-
KACHEMAK BAY-
250 PM AKST MON FEB 29 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE EVENING...THEN
DIMINISHING TO SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Feb 28, 4:48 PM AKST, 11 hours earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 28, 4:48 PM AKST, 11 hours before
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
448 PM AKST SUN FEB 28 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE ASSIDUOUS PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
WINTER SO FAR PERSISTS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW REMAINS CENTERED SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ALEUTIANS.
MANY OF THE DISTURBANCES/LOWS AFFECTING SOUTHERN ALASKA ARE
CIRCULATING AROUND THIS ONE FEATURE.

A WEAKENING FRONT IS PUSHING INLAND ACROSS THE GULF COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. MIDDLETON ISLAND AND KENAI RADARS SHOW NUMEROUS SHOWERS
CONTINUING ALONG NEARLY ALL OF THE GULF COAST. RECENT WIND GUSTS
HAVE APPROACHED 40 MPH AT SOME BUOYS IN THE GULF AND PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND. ADDITIONALLY...THE FRONT PRODUCED ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKES OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT ALONG THE KENAI PENINSULA
AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. WHILE THE PORTION OF THE FRONT THAT IS
MOVING INTO SOUTHCENTRAL DISSIPATES...ITS PARENT LOW CROSSED THE
ALASKA PENINSULA INTO THE EASTERN BERING EARLIER THIS MORNING.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA
AND BRISTOL BAY REGIONS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW...BUT NOTHING
FALLING IS PARTICULARLY HEAVY.

BROAD EASTERLY FLOW IS TAKING THE CLOUD COVER THAT IS OVER THE
NORTHERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND DELTA REGIONS OUT INTO THE BERING.
PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE
BERING...KEEPING CONDITIONS COOL AND WET FROM THE PRIBILOFS WEST.

A DEEPENING NORTH PACIFIC LOW IS MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE ALEUTIAN UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS STORM WILL BE THE
NEXT LARGE FEATURE THAT WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN ALASKA...PRIMARILY
FOR THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THIS STORM CURRENTLY HAS A SIGNATURE COMMA SHAPE AS
IT PULLS IN UNSTABLE AIR INTO ITS DRY SLOT.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE PRIMARY FORECAST MODELS REMAIN DIVIDED INTO TWO CAMPS
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF A FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THE
NORTH PACIFIC LOW HEADED FOR THE ALEUTIANS. THE NAM/GFS ARE THE
WEAKER SOLUTIONS...KEEPING THE FRONT AS A BROAD TROUGH. THE GEM/EC
ARE BOTH DEVELOPING A TRIPLE POINT LOW ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY
MORNING. IN KEEPING WITH PERSISTENCE AND PATTERN RECOGNITION...THE
GEM WAS THE PREFERRED MODEL AGAIN TODAY. HOWEVER...THE GEM ALONE
MAY BE DEVELOPING THE LOW TOO QUICKLY...SO A BLEND WITH THE
NAM/GFS SOLUTION WAS TAKEN FOR THE TOMORROW NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME
PERIOD WHEN MODEL SPREAD GROWS EVEN MORE.

REGARDING THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW ITSELF...BY TOMORROW NIGHT THE LOW
WILL BE MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THE EC
BECOMES THE OUTLIER BY THIS POINT...SHOWING A SOLUTION THAT IS
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW THAN THE
OTHERWISE CLOSE MODEL CONSENSUS. AS THE OTHER MODELS ARE PRETTY
CLOSE TO ONE ANOTHER...A BLEND OF THE THREE WAS TAKEN. USING THIS
SOLUTION...THE CENTER OF THE LOW SKIRTS THE PACIFIC SIDE OF THE
CHAIN...BUT NEVER CROSSES IT. THIS TRACK WOULD KEEP THE ISLANDS
IN PERSISTENT STRONG EASTERLY FLOW AS THE LOW PASSES BY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS ABOUT NORMAL...BETWEEN THE TENACIOUS
MODEL SPREAD LOWERING CONFIDENCE AND THE TREND IN THE CHOSEN
MODELS PERSISTING OVER SEVERAL MODEL RUNS RAISING THE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM KODIAK ISLAND OUT
INTO THE WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH CROSSING THE
KENAI PENINSULA THIS EVENING AND MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH BRINGING IN COLD UNSTABLE AIR
ALOFT EXPECTING TO SEE RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING OVER TO A MIX THIS
EVENING AND THEN PREDOMINANTLY SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALSO SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST GULF COASTAL
WATERS...THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE KENAI PENINSULA AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BEGINNING PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF MONDAY MORNING THEN
LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF MONDAY NIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A LINGERING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT BRINGING SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS FIRST TO THE
BRISTOL BAY AREA IN THE EVENING...THEN TO THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY/DELTA OVERNIGHT. ONCE THIS TROUGH EXITS TO THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT...MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE MAINLAND WHILE WINDS
SWITCH TO THE EAST BRIEFLY. MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE OVERHEAD BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. CLOUD COVER
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS THIS EVENING
AND WEAKEN OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE AREA IS CURRENTLY BUILDING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND
WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE A MAX GALE FORCE FRONT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE BERING
SEA. THAT LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
KEEPING SHOWERY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...WED THROUGH SUN)...THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT PATTERN CHANGE FEATURED DURING THIS TIME. THE
NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE WILL SURGE BACK FROM NORTHWEST CANADA TOWARD
SOUTH CENTRAL AK DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MAKE WED
AND THU SOME OF THE CLEAREST DAYS WE HAVE HAD FOR A WHILE FROM
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN THROUGH SOUTHERN KENAI. MEANWHILE...OVER
THE NORTH PACIFIC AND THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS...ONE DECAYING LOW
NEAR DUTCH HARBOR WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER MOVING UP FROM THE
NORTH PACIFIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FRONTS TO ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO THE
GULF COAST BY FRIDAY...WITH POSSIBLE TRIPLE POINT LOWS FORMING ON
THESE FRONTS. NONE OF THESE FEATURES APPEAR TO BE OVERLY STRONG
AND WILL LIKELY ONLY BRING PRECIPITATION TO COASTAL LOCALES.
HOWEVER...WITH HIGH PRESSURE INLAND...THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD SERVE
TO INCREASE THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT. THIS WILL KEEP OUTFLOW WINDS
THROUGH FAVORED AREAS BLOWING TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THEY
COULD ALSO BRING BOUTS OF STRONGER GALE TO POSSIBLY EVEN STORM
FORCE WINDS INTO THE BARRIER JET REGION AS WELL.

OUT WEST...WE WILL CONTINUE TO CYCLE THROUGH LOWS SWINGING UP FROM
THE GULF AND INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE ALEUTIANS...AS EACH
FRONT PASSES. AS WE MOVE TOWARD THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER EASTERN RUSSIA WILL SQUEEZE THE GRADIENT OVER MUCH
OF THE BERING. THIS WILL BRING GALE-FORCE NORTHEAST FLOW TO THE
AREA.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 119 120 130 131 132 136 137 138 150 151 160 165 170
172 179 180 185 351 352 411 412 414.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...LF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ML
LONG TERM...MO

The office that day

Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 28, 3:25 PM AKSTGale WarningAFC23 hr
Feb 29, 3:48 AM AKSTGale WarningAFC11 hr
Feb 29, 3:48 AM AKSTStorm WarningAFC24 hr
Feb 29, 3:48 AM AKSTStorm WarningAFC24 hr
Feb 29, 2:50 PM AKSTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC13 hr
Feb 29, 2:50 PM AKSTStorm WarningAFC13 hr
Feb 29, 2:51 PM AKSTStorm WarningAFC13 hr

Nearby

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2016Every small craft advisory in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.