Small Craft Advisory 1039, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Dec 29, 2016, 3:07 PM AKST (00:07 UTC)

Expired

Dec 30, 2016, 3:45 AM AKST

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

212 
FZAK51 PAFC 300007
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
307 PM AKST THU DEC 29 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-301245-
307 PM AKST THU DEC 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A FRONT ENTERS THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA LATE TONIGHT AND MOVES
TO SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA BY SAT MORNING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS JUST WEST OF KODIAK ISLAND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING THEN
THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-301245-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
307 PM AKST THU DEC 29 2016

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ120-301245-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
307 PM AKST THU DEC 29 2016

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ121-301245-
RESURRECTION BAY-
307 PM AKST THU DEC 29 2016

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-301245-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
307 PM AKST THU DEC 29 2016

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-301245-
PORT VALDEZ-
307 PM AKST THU DEC 29 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-301245-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
307 PM AKST THU DEC 29 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-301245-
VALDEZ ARM-
307 PM AKST THU DEC 29 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-301245-
PASSAGE CANAL-
307 PM AKST THU DEC 29 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-301245-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
307 PM AKST THU DEC 29 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG. SNOW.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-301245-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
307 PM AKST THU DEC 29 2016

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-301245-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
307 PM AKST THU DEC 29 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ136-301245-
CHINIAK BAY-
307 PM AKST THU DEC 29 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-301245-
MARMOT BAY-
307 PM AKST THU DEC 29 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF FOG.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-301245-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
307 PM AKST THU DEC 29 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-301245-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
307 PM AKST THU DEC 29 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-301245-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
307 PM AKST THU DEC 29 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS
1 FOOT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-301245-
KACHEMAK BAY-
307 PM AKST THU DEC 29 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Dec 29, 5:39 AM AKST, 9 hours 28 minutes earlier.

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
539 AM AKST Thu Dec 29 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A broad upper level ridge is moving across western AK this
morning, with a trough near the Alcan and a strong low over the
northern Kamchatka peninsula. At the surface a broad trough of low
pressure resides over the northeastern Gulf coast and a deep low
over the northern Kamchatka peninsula. Weak ridging is over
southcentral AK.

The first front associated with the Kamchatka low is moving into
western AK and the AKpen. Warm and moist air is overrunning this
front into western AK with snow changing to rain as the front
moves inland. Despite temperatures rising into the 30s to near
40, the rain is falling on subfreezing surfaces. This will,
therefore, be considered to be freezing rain. Advisories for this
situation have been issued for the Kuskokwim Valley and Delta.

The second front associated with the Kamchatka low extends due
south across the western Bering to the central Aleutians. Gales
and storm force winds are common with this front, and across the
region.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in fairly good agreement synoptically. The differences
are with timing and precipitation amounts, and the forecasts
utilize some nam and gfs.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist until late this
afternoon with the arrival of the initial front. Ceilings will
become marginal with the onset of snowfall, with IFR conditions
expected around midnight and persisting until early morning.
Marginal conditions will return by mid morning as the system moves
east.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

An impressive cold front will support widespread snow across much
of Southcentral this evening into tomorrow morning. Not only will
it provide ample lift for precipitation, but it is also associated
with broad moist southwesterly flow. As it approaches this
evening, it is expected to support a low level southwesterly jet
along Cook Inlet. As a result, snow amounts will be further
enhanced along the western and southern sides of the mountains due
to orographic lift. All models are in generally good agreement
synoptically, but the higher resolution models such as the NAM and
WRF best capture this orographic lift. However, there is still
some uncertainty in the timing of the precipitation, which will
ultimately determine snowfall amounts. An additional factor that
remains uncertain is the extent and intensity of southeasterly
flow through Turnagain Arm ahead of beginning of the snow this
evening. If this wind persists through the initiation of the snow,
it could limit snowfall over lower elevations. However, depending
on the extent of the jet, it could also support a convergence band
over the inlet and enhance amounts. By Friday evening, broad
offshore flow is expected to develop across the north gulf coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A strong warm front is pushing onshore across Southwest Alaska
this morning. Precipitation over Nunivak Island and Kuskokwim
Delta coast has already switched over to rain and this transition
will continue from west to east through the day. A brief period of
freezing rain is possible during the transition from snow to rain
with additional ice accumulation due rain falling subfreezing
surfaces despite air temperatures increasing into the mid 30s.
Snow possibly mixed with freezing rain will continue the longest
in Kuskokwim Valley and along the western slopes of the Alaska
Range where the cold air is the most deeply entrenched.

The associated cold front will reach the Kuskokwim Delta and
western capes this afternoon and continue inland through the
evening increasing rain fall rates again prior to precipitation
turning back to snow with the passage of the front. An upper level
trough with a colder air mass will swing inland Friday with the
accompanying drier air quickly tapering off snow showers. Another
strong frontal system will push into Northwest Alaska Friday night
but only brush past the northern portions of Southwest Alaska.
Upper level ridging will build over Southwest Alaska on Saturday
and shift east Sunday ahead another strong frontal system crossing
the Bering.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

A very active storm track continues across the western Bering
with several more strong lows following behind the 940 mb low
currently making landfall in eastern Russia. The cold front
associated with the current low is pushing east across the
central Aleutians and Bering and will reach the eastern Bering
this afternoon. Strong westerly flow will spread east across the
Bering following the front and accompanying an upper level trough.
The next strong low will track into the far Southwest Bering this
evening and then continue to rapidly deepen tonight and Friday as
it lifts north along the western periphery of the Bering. The
following low will pass close to the western Aleutians Friday
night then track north along 170E. A secondary frontal wave will
be picked up by this system and lift north through the central and
eastern Aleutians late Friday night and Saturday. All of these
systems will produce widespread gales with areas of storm force
winds.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7/Friday Night through Wednesday)...

On Friday night the trough and surface front (expected to bring
heavy snow to portions of Southcentral) will rapidly exit to the
east, with a quick and strong push of cold advection winds on the
back side. Have increased winds, particularly for Whittier/Passage
Canal, Prince William Sound and the northern Gulf. The westerly
flow is most favorable for Whittier, so may see some wind gusts
approach warning level (75 mph).

Meanwhile, a rapidly strengthening low moving up from the Pacific
to the far Western Aleutians, along with a separate downstream
wave, will quickly amplify the pattern. A ridge will build over
the eastern bering Friday night and slide eastward over the
mainland Saturday, phasing with a well established ridge over
the Northeast Pacific. Previous guidance had indicated this ridge
would hold strong over Mainland Alaska, relegating the active
weather and impacts from deep lows to the Bering Sea and Aleutians.
There is now a very definite trend toward weakening the ridge over
Mainland Alaska as short-wave ride over top of it. This will
allow a front sitting off the west coast Saturday to move onshore
across Southwest Alaska Sunday and possible into Southcentral on
Monday.

Out west, deep storm systems will provide a steady dose of gale
to storm force winds, with hurricane force gusts possible in cold
advection near the primary low center. It looks like there will be
a break in between systems early next week which will allow winds and
seas to diminish, but the pattern will remain favorable for strong
systems moving up from the Pacific as we head through next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory 101 145 152 155
         Winter Storm Warning 111
MARINE...Gale Warning 119 120 121 125 129 130 131 150 155 165 170
             172 173 174 175 176 177 179 180 181 351 352 413 414
         Storm Warning 178 185 411 412

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JER
LONG TERM...SEB

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2016Every small craft advisory in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.