High Wind Watch 10, NWS Anchorage, AK

898 
WWAK72 PAFC 310019
NPWALU

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
319 PM AKST FRI DEC 30 2016

AKZ195-311330-
/O.UPG.PAFC.HW.A.0010.161231T0900Z-170101T0300Z/
/O.NEW.PAFC.HW.W.0016.161231T1500Z-170101T0300Z/
PRIBILOF ISLANDS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SAINT PAUL
319 PM AKST FRI DEC 30 2016

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM AKST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM AKST SATURDAY. THE
HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* WIND...SOUTH WIND 50 TO 65 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 75 MPH.

* TIMING...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
  APPROACHES. WINDS WILL PEAK SATURDAY MORNING AND HIGH WINDS
  WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH RAPIDLY
  AS THEY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY SATURDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...HIGH WINDS MAY MOVE LOOSE DEBRIS AND MAY DAMAGE 
  PROPERTY. BOATS AND AIRCRAFT SHOULD BE WELL SECURED. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD
BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND.

&&

$$

AKZ185-311330-
/O.NEW.PAFC.HW.W.0016.161231T1500Z-170101T0000Z/
EASTERN ALEUTIANS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...UNALASKA...NIKOLSKI
319 PM AKST FRI DEC 30 2016

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM AKST SATURDAY FOR
NIKOLSKI...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM AKST SATURDAY. 

* LOCATION...NIKOLSKI.

* WIND...SOUTH WIND 45 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 75 MPH.

* TIMING...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
  APPROACHES. WINDS WILL PEAK SATURDAY MORNING AND HIGH WINDS WILL
  CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH RAPIDLY AS THEY
  BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY SATURDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...HIGH WINDS MAY MOVE LOOSE DEBRIS AND MAY DAMAGE 
  PROPERTY. BOATS AND AIRCRAFT SHOULD BE WELL SECURED. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD
BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND.

&&

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
424 PM AKST Thu Dec 29 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The main upper low is over the northern Bering Sea with the
associated front continuing to push inland along the Bering Sea
Coast. A strong push of warm air with the warm front moved into
the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta rapidly changed the snow over to rain
this morning. Cold air is still entrenched over portions of the
Bristol Bay zone but will erode out through this evening. As the
cold front pushes inland over western Alaska the rain will change
back to snow then abruptly end.

Over Southcentral Alaska the flow aloft is aligning to a strong
southwest flow that will serve to pump moisture over the southern
mainland this evening. Mid and high level moisture is flowing over
the top of the upper level ridge over the Southcentral region.
The main push of moisture is along and just ahead of the front
over southwest Alaska moving east.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The models are in relatively good agreement synoptically and
difference remain with the details of the timing and amounts of
precipitation. The NAM and GFS are the preferred models for the
QPF.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...The onset of the IFR to LIFR conditions will be a few hours
later than expected. The onset of the snow will occur with the
light north wind likely around 03Z. The winds just off the surface
will be stronger south to southwest wind resulting in LLWS until
the surface wind turns south, likely around 09Z. The snow and
blowing snow will keep the VIS down thereafter until the event
ends by 18Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An impressive cold front will support widespread snow across much
of Southcentral this evening into tomorrow morning. Not only will
it provide ample lift for precipitation, but it is also associated
with broad moist southwesterly flow. As it approaches this
evening, it is expected to support a low level southwesterly jet
along Cook Inlet. As a result, snow amounts will be further
enhanced along the western and southern sides of the mountains due
to orographic lift. All models are in generally good agreement
synoptically, but the higher resolution models such as the NAM and
WRF best capture this orographic lift. However, there is still
some uncertainty in the timing of the precipitation, which will
ultimately determine snowfall amounts. An additional factor that
remains uncertain is the extent and intensity of southeasterly
flow through Turnagain Arm ahead of beginning of the snow this
evening. If this wind persists through the initiation of the snow,
it could limit snowfall over lower elevations. However, depending
on the extent of the jet, it could also support a convergence band
over the inlet and enhance amounts. By Friday evening, broad
offshore flow and drier conditions are expected to develop across
the North Gulf Coast and persist into Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The warm front continues to push through the Southwest Alaska
region. The surface temperatures in the Kuskokwim Delta are
predominantly all in the upper 30s accompanied by gusty
southwesterly onshore flow. While the Bristol Bay coastline
temperatures in the mid 30s, and the Alaska Peninsula temperatures
are in the lower 40s. Meanwhile, north of Dillingham extending
northward into the Lower Kuskokwim Valley the temperatures will
take a tad longer to raise above freezing. Therefore, look for
pockets of light freezing rain in the aforementioned region
through the evening tonight. While the heaviest snowfall in the
Southwest Alaska region will occur over the Kuskokwim Mountains,
and along the Alaska Range through the overnight hours. There is
an upstream cold front positioned over the Kuskokwim Bay area.
This synoptic feature moves through Kuskokwim Delta early this
evening before crossing the Alaska Range after midnight tonight.
This ushers in colder temperatures throughout the region, and
any precipitation will fall as all snow heading into Friday.
An upper level ridge builds into the Southwest Alaska region for
Friday with weak minor shortwave ridging over the top of the
ridge. Therefore, onshore flow combined with the ridge over the
region will produce patchy fog with potential for dense fog
issues for the early Friday morning hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The predominantly southwesterly flow remains for the Bering
Sea/Aleutians through this weekend. High pressure located over
just south of the Central to Eastern Aleutians keeps the next
several storm tracks just west of the Bering. The storm track
pushes the next several storm force lows just east of Kamchatka
Peninsula northward into the Bering Strait region. By Friday
evening the high pressure moves farther eastward near Kodiak
Island. This coincides with a storm force low moving through the
Western Aleutians, and an associated weather front through the
Central Bering/Aleutians. This will bring warmer temperatures
with strong storm force southerly winds to the aforementioned
region. As this system track northward the colder air on the
backside enters the Western Aleutians with storm force westerly
winds. Therefore, look for continued widespread stratus/moisture
streaming into the Bering Sea/Aleutians as we head into the
weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7/Friday Night through Wednesday)...

Forecast guidance managed to take a shift from previous days.
Over the weekend a ridge of high pressure will build in across
most of south central Alaska. Guidance settled on a slower
progression of the ridge and the weekend across the area is
expected to be met with bouts of clouds and sunshine. A weak
wiggle in the flow is showing some signs of bringing light snow to
the Western Alaska Range Sunday evening and into Monday, but the
current trend keeps backing off on those chances.

The blocking ridge across Southcentral will lead to a continued
storm trajectory across the Western Aleutian chain. The first in a
series of storms will slide north along the date line and occlude
a front that will stall out across the Central Aleutians. The
ridge of high pressure will slowly build to the west and
eventually span much of the state leading to a quiet mid week
across most of the state.

It looks like there will be a break between systems early next
week which will allow winds and seas to abate, but the pattern
will remain favorable across the Western Bering for strong systems
moving up from the Pacific as we head through next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisories/Warning 101 111 141 145.
MARINE...Storms 170,172-176,178-179,185,411-414.
         Gales 119-125,131, 150-165, 171 177, 180-181.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...SS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
222 AM AKST FRI DEC 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 PM     SNOW             3 SSE ANCHORAGE         61.18N 149.85W
12/29/2016  M1.0 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

            SNOWED ONE INCH OVER PREVIOUS HOUR

0200 AM     SNOW             4 S ANCHORAGE           61.16N 149.89W
12/30/2016  M2.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            MEASURED 2 INCHES OVER 5 HOURS. TEMP 17F. HARD TO TELL
            CURRENT PRECIPITATION. PROBABLY SMALL FLAKES.

&&

KUTZ