Hurricane Force Wind Warning 14, NWS Anchorage, AK

090 
FZAK52 PAFC 271210
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
310 AM AKST SUN NOV 27 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-280100-
310 AM AKST SUN NOV 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 996 MB LOW 60 NM NORTHWEST OF ADAK MOVES TO 180 NM NORTHWEST OF
COLD BAY AT 992 MB LATE TONIGHT...THEN MOVES TO NEAR COLD BAY AT
994 MB MON NIGHT AND WEAKENS INTO A TROUGH. A FRONT ENTERS THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS MON EVE AND STRETCHES OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
BY LATE MON NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-280100-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
310 AM AKST SUN NOV 27 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT SUBSIDING TO 19 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.

$$

PKZ155-280100-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
310 AM AKST SUN NOV 27 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT EXCEPT SW 20 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E.
SEAS 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.

$$

PKZ160-280100-
BRISTOL BAY-
310 AM AKST SUN NOV 27 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ165-280100-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
310 AM AKST SUN NOV 27 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...W WIND 30 KT
DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT EXCEPT S 20 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS 13
FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ170-280100-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
310 AM AKST SUN NOV 27 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ171-280100-
UNALASKA BAY-
310 AM AKST SUN NOV 27 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ172-280100-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
310 AM AKST SUN NOV 27 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.

$$

PKZ173-280100-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
310 AM AKST SUN NOV 27 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ174-280100-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
310 AM AKST SUN NOV 27 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 17 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

PKZ175-280100-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
310 AM AKST SUN NOV 27 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11
FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.

$$

PKZ176-280100-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
310 AM AKST SUN NOV 27 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ177-280100-
ADAK TO KISKA-
310 AM AKST SUN NOV 27 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
BERING SIDE...SEAS 9 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO
13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.WED...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.

$$

PKZ178-280100-
KISKA TO ATTU-
310 AM AKST SUN NOV 27 2016

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ179-280100-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
310 AM AKST SUN NOV 27 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ180-280100-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
310 AM AKST SUN NOV 27 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF
CAPE NEWENHAM. SNOW.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF CAPE
NEWENHAM. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ181-280100-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
310 AM AKST SUN NOV 27 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING MONDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ185-280100-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
310 AM AKST SUN NOV 27 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
419 AM AKST Sat Nov 26 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Infrared and water vapor satellite imagery depicts a strong
cyclone currently at or near peak intensity about 100 miles
southwest of the Pribilof Islands. An overnight ASCAT pass on
winds depicts a broad area of storm-force winds extending from
near the Central Aleutians well south into the North Pacific to
near 49N latitude. A strong jet streak (estimated 125kt or more
from 500 mb on up) and strong low level baroclinicity and
convergence support high winds and moderate to heavy
precipitation, particularly along the southern periphery of the
low. Also of note, a very strong potential vorticity anomaly is
evident in water vapor imagery (very dry air) just south of the
low center and its associated front. This impressive anomaly has
persisted through the evening and overnight hours. This is
favorable for thunderstorms as it moves over top of low level warm
and moist air.

There has been some change in the track of the low overnight, and
this has resulted in some impacts on our warnings. With a more
southern track to this low closer to the Alaska Peninsula, the
Blizzard Warning was cancelled last evening for the area around
Kuskokwim Bay, as snow appears to be setting up just to the south.
However, this southern track does not seem to change the expected
impacts due to high winds across the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula today.

Looking downstream, a high amplitude trough is continuing to dig
southeast across the far northern and eastern Gulf of Alaska.
Along the northern extent of this trough, snow is falling across
eastern Prince William Sound extending north into the Copper River
Basin. The only other feature of note is that the mid and upper
levels have dried out over southern Alaska out ahead of the
aforementioned Bering cyclone, aiding in the development of
stratus and fog over inland areas, which will become less and less
of a problem through today as moisture increases in the middle and
upper levels.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

As mentioned above, 00z models all shifted south with the low
track from the southern Bering to the far southern Bristol Bay
today and then as it moves into the Western Gulf of Alaska
tonight. This has resulted in mainly a lowering of overall snow
amounts (and associated blowing snow) over much of inland
Southwest and Southcentral Alaska over the next couple of days.
This includes the Anchorage area, where there no longer appears to
be a significant up-inlet cold advection push that would be needed
to support the heavier accumulations of snow that had been
expected yesterday.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Models are depicting a low-VFR ceiling through the morning,
but it is not out of the question for some fog to develop as well.
Have decided for now to keep the VCFG and keep the low-VFR
ceilings until 20z, with rising ceilings thereafter as mid- and
high-level clouds and low-level winds begin to increase as the
next storm system approaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Light snow will diminish across the Copper River Basin as an
upper trough moves east across the area. Gap/outflow winds across
the eastern Kenai Pen and North Gulf Coast will diminish this
morning as pressure gradients weaken. An upper 960s low moves from
the Bering Sea to over Kodiak Island this evening then slowly
weakens over the northern Gulf through Sunday. The associated
occluded front moves to near Kodiak Island this morning then
heads toward the northern Gulf as it stretches east. Rain will
spread to Kodiak with the front this morning then head toward the
Gulf Coast this afternoon. Precipitation along the coasts should
trend toward a mix with inland areas holding generally as snow.
The brunt of the precipitation should remain along the coasts and
eastern Kenai Pen with only some light snow making it inland
across the MATSU valleys and Anchorage Bowl today. Snow has a
better shot across the MATSU valleys and Anchorage Bowl on late
Sunday as a upper trough moves in from the west.

Gales are expected with the front across the Gulf waters today
with a band of storms on the backside across the Southern Gulf.
Coastal marine areas south see some relief from the Gales on
Sunday, however Gulf waters will still see some potential for
westerly gales. Outflow conditions across the eastern Kenai Pen is
expected to develop early Sunday and continue through Sunday
night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
The low in the southern Bering that is tracking east will push its
front over southwest Alaska this morning. It will start off
bringing snow to the area accompanied by strong winds. These
conditions will cause blowing snow for areas north and west of
King Salmon that will bring blizzard conditions to the area. As
the low pushes into the Gulf this evening both the snow and winds
will diminish.

With the southerly position of the low, other areas of southwest
Alaska will see little snow accumulation but they will see strong
northerly winds into tonight. Sunday into Monday will see calmer
conditions for southwest Alaska with little in terms of new
precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
The low tracking across the southern Bering is bringing strong
winds with it to the Aleutians aided in part by strong cold air
advection. Areas of the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula
will see warning level winds that will increase from west to east
throughout today. As the low moves off into the Gulf this evening
the winds will weaken. The remainder of the weekend will be
characterized by showers and and primarily westerly winds. Then on
Monday a new front will push in over the Western Aleutians
bringing rain, snow, and stronger winds to the islands.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Models have trended south with the low crossing the Gulf of Alaska
on Sunday but all still develop the remnant low over Prince
William Sound Sunday evening after the main low tracks into the
eastern Gulf then inland across Southeast Alaska. The combination
the presence of this Prince William Sound surface low and the cold
air advection from the upper trough over southwest Alaska pushing
into southcentral Alaska increases confidence in the potential for
a snow event over southcentral Alaska Sunday night. Current expected
QPF amounts combined with a favorable snow growth temperature and
moisture profile have the potential to bring around 4 to 6 inches
of snow to the Anchorage Bowl and Hillside as well as the Matanuska
Valley from Sunday evening through Monday morning. The snow will
shift east over the Copper River Basin with several inches
possible there through the day Monday as the low also shifts east.

Out west, a surface low over the Bering Sunday night will weaken
as it tracks east toward Bristol Bay Monday then dissipate as it
crosses the Alaska Peninsula Monday Night. A stronger incoming
frontal system will lift from the North Pacific up over the
Aleutians Monday Night. The parent low will track from west to
east just south of the Aleutians Tuesday and Wednesday as the
front progresses across the Bering. South of the Gulf, another
low will rapidly spin up Monday and Tuesday as it tracks toward
the eastern Gulf and then swings inland across the Southeast
Alaska Panhandle Tuesday Night. For Southcentral Alaska the
biggest impacts of this system will be to substantially increase
cold northwesterly outflow gap winds Tuesday and Tuesday night.

For the second half of the week, a cold air mass will persist
over much of mainland Alaska supported by continued upper level
troughing and periodically being reinforced by arctic troughs
swinging in from the northwest. A series of frontal systems
tracking in from the west across the Aleutians and southern Bering
as well as frontal systems lifting up through the Gulf will
additional chances for snow to the area through the end of the
week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning 181 185. Blizzard Warning 161. Blowing
Snow Advisory 125.
MARINE...Hurricane 155 170 172. Storm 130 132 150 165 171 173 174
175 176 352. Gales 119 120 131 138 160 177 178 179 180 351 413
414.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RMC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...JR