High Wind Watch 8, NWS Anchorage, AK

191 
WWAK72 PAFC 251234
NPWALU

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
334 AM AKST FRI NOV 25 2016

AKZ181-260200-
/O.UPG.PAFC.HW.A.0008.161126T1500Z-161127T0900Z/
/O.NEW.PAFC.HW.W.0010.161126T2100Z-161127T0900Z/
ALASKA PENINSULA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLD BAY...SAND POINT
334 AM AKST FRI NOV 25 2016

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT
AKST SATURDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT AKST
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* WIND...WEST WIND 50 TO 65 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 80 MPH.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS THE FLOW SHIFTS FROM 
  SOUTHWEST TO WEST SATURDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH 
  SATURDAY EVENING. 

* IMPACTS...HIGH WINDS MAY MOVE LOOSE DEBRIS AND MAY DAMAGE 
  PROPERTY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD
BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND.

&&

$$

AKZ185-260200-
/O.UPG.PAFC.HW.A.0008.161126T1200Z-161127T0600Z/
/O.NEW.PAFC.HW.W.0009.161126T1200Z-161127T0300Z/
EASTERN ALEUTIANS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...UNALASKA...NIKOLSKI
334 AM AKST FRI NOV 25 2016

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM AKST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM AKST SATURDAY. THE
HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* WIND...WEST WIND 60 TO 75 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 95 MPH.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT THEN
  DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 

* IMPACTS...HIGH WINDS MAY MOVE LOOSE DEBRIS AND MAY DAMAGE 
  PROPERTY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD
BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND.

&&

$$

AKZ187-260200-
/O.UPG.PAFC.HW.A.0008.161126T0600Z-161126T1800Z/
/O.NEW.PAFC.HW.W.0009.161126T0600Z-161126T1500Z/
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ATKA AND ADAK
334 AM AKST FRI NOV 25 2016

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM
AKST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM AKST
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* WIND...WEST WIND 50 TO 65 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 80 MPH.

* TIMING...WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING...THEN
  DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HIGH WINDS MAY MOVE LOOSE DEBRIS AND MAY DAMAGE 
  PROPERTY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD
BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND.

&&

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
436 AM AKST Thu Nov 24 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The transition to a more zonal and active weather pattern is
underway across the region. The best evidence for this is a strong
southwesterly jet streak approaching the Central Aleutians, which
is helping to push a weather front across the Bering Sea/Aleutians
well ahead of the parent low which is situated all the way back
to the eastern Kamchatka coast. This front/jet combo is helping to
push an arctic air mass behind the front across the western
Bering heading east.

Meanwhile, an upper level ridge dominates most of the rest of the
forecast area, resulting in benign conditions from the central
Bering Sea to Southwest and Southcentral Alaska. A large broad
cyclonic circulation over the Northeast Pacific continues to move
well away from the western Gulf.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in generally good agreement with the synoptic pattern,
but with minor speed, placement, and timing differences in the
active zonal weather pattern that will have a large impact on the
intensity and duration of sensible weather over the next few days.
This makes for varying levels of confidence depending on the
location through the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Clear skies with little wind will persist today. An
approaching weather system from the Bering will bring some mid
level clouds tonight. Ceilings will then lower to 5000 ft Fri
morning with some snow showers in the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Cold and clear conditions will be the rule for southcentral Alaska
today with clouds coming in overnight. A front in the eastern
Bering Sea is moving rapidly eastward and will bring some rain
and snow to Kodiak by this evening and some light snow into the
Cook Inlet region toward tomorrow morning. Snow amounts are not
expected to be very high with only an inch or two at most places
around sea level.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The front moving across the Bering towards southwest Alaska will
first move in over the Kuskokwim Delta this afternoon. Then it
will continue to push further inland through the night. This
system will be cold enough for snow around southwest Alaska
except for the Alaska Peninsula that will see enough warm air
pulled up from the south for rain to mix in.

Winds will also accompany the front as it passes and they will be
strong enough along the Kuskokwim Delta coast this afternoon and
evening for blowing snow conditions to develop. However, this
evening as the front pushes off to the east the snow and winds
will both diminish. After the front moves through the area snow
showers will linger into Friday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The front moving across the Bering will bring rain and snow to the
area as it passes. Behind this system colder air and westerly
winds will be ushered in transitioning most of the precipitation
to snow. On Friday a new system will approach the Central
Aleutians from the North Pacific bringing more wind and rain to
the islands. This system will then track to the northeast into the
Bering spreading the rain to the Eastern Aleutians and Pribilof
Islands.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The models continue to struggle with the storm track for the storm
force low that crosses the Central Aleutians Friday evening as it
tracks eastward. The GFS/NAM push this system farther north
through the Bristol Bay interior near Cape Newenham by Saturday
evening. While the ECMWF models has a farther south track along
the Alaska Peninsula near Pilot Point before crossing over into
the Gulf by Sunday. Therefore, we opted to use the Canadian-NH
model, which had a storm track farther north along the Alaska
Peninsula near Egigik. This storm track aligned more with the
positioning of the southwesterly jet streak streaming along the
Eastern Aleutians before transitioning to a northwesterly flow in
the eastern Gulf heading into the weekend. This system will bring
storm force westerly winds along the Central/Eastern Aleutians
accompanied by a showery regime through Saturday before gradually
diminishing by Sunday as the system exits into the Gulf.
Meanwhile, the Bering winds shift out of the north bringing colder
temperatures to the region through Monday before the next storm
force low enters the Western Aleutians by Tuesday. For the
Southcentral Alaska region, a gale force low is parked in the
northern Gulf, but exits to the lower Southeastern Panhandle by
Saturday. By Saturday a weather front associated with the storm
force low located in the Bristol Bay region moves through the
Southcentral region. The precipitation will fall as all snow with
the colder air in place at the surface. By Sunday evening the
aforementioned storm tracks into the northern Gulf, and remains
almost stationary through Tuesday before dissipating. Look for the
bulk of the precipitation to remain along the northern Gulf
coastal communities. The forecast confidence remains average
through the weekend, with continued model discrepancies with the
storm tracks.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Storms 178
         Gales 127 132 150 155 160 165 170 172-177 179 180 185

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...cc
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ez
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...dk
LONG TERM...pd