Blizzard Watch 4, NWS Anchorage, AK

098 
WWAK42 PAFC 250423
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
723 PM AKST THU NOV 24 2016

AKZ155-251730-
/O.CAN.PAFC.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-161125T0600Z/
/O.CON.PAFC.BZ.A.0004.161126T1500Z-161127T0900Z/
KUSKOKWIM DELTA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BETHEL...HOOPER BAY...NUNIVAK ISLAND
723 PM AKST THU NOV 24 2016

...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING. 

* SNOW...2 TO 5 INCHES.

* VISIBILITY...VISIBILITY POSSIBLY REDUCED TO ONE-QUARTER MILE OR
  LESS AT TIMES.

* WIND...NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

* TIMING...SNOWFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER 
  THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN TAPPER 
  OFF TO MORE SHOWERY NORTHERLY FLOW BY SATURDAY EVENING. LOW 
  VISIBILITIES IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY 
  MORNING THOUGH THE EARLY EVENING SATURDAY. 

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW 
  MAY PRODUCE WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. TRAVELING MAY 
  BECOME VERY DIFFICULT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES.
THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY
DIFFICULT.

&&

$$

AKZ161-251730-
/O.CON.PAFC.BZ.A.0004.161126T1500Z-161126T2200Z/
BRISTOL BAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KING SALMON...DILLINGHAM...NAKNEK...
PILOT POINT
723 PM AKST THU NOV 24 2016

...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON NORTH AND WEST OF
KING SALMON...

* LOCATION...NORTH AND WEST OF KING SALMON.

* SNOW...2 TO 5 INCHES.

* VISIBILITY...VISIBILITY REDUCED TO ONE-HALF MILE OR LESS AT 
  TIMES. 

* WIND...SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH... 
  STRONGEST ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. 

* TIMING...GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TO 
  INCREASE SATURDAY MORNING...THEN SNOW WILL BEGIN TO MIX WITH 
  RAIN AS THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER INLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW 
  MAY PRODUCE WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. DRIVING MAY BECOME 
  VERY DIFFICULT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES.
THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY
DIFFICULT.

&&

$$

062 
WWAK42 PAFC 251234
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
334 AM AKST FRI NOV 25 2016

AKZ155-260200-
/O.UPG.PAFC.BZ.A.0004.161126T1500Z-161127T0900Z/
/O.NEW.PAFC.BZ.W.0006.161126T1500Z-161127T0300Z/
KUSKOKWIM DELTA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BETHEL...HOOPER BAY...NUNIVAK ISLAND
334 AM AKST FRI NOV 25 2016

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM AKST SATURDAY
ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF TOKSOOK...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM AKST SATURDAY. THE
BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* LOCATION...ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF TOKSOOK.

* SNOW...2 TO 4 INCHES.

* VISIBILITY...VISIBILITY REDUCED TO ONE-QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT
  TIMES.

* WIND...NORTHEAST 25 TO 40 MPH.

* TIMING...SNOWFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER
  THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN TAPER
  OFF TO MORE SHOWERY NORTHERLY FLOW BY SATURDAY EVENING. LOW
  VISIBILITIES IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
  MORNING THOUGH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW 
  MAY PRODUCE WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. TRAVELING MAY 
  BECOME VERY DIFFICULT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT. ALL TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR
ACTIVITY IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

$$

AKZ161-260200-
/O.CON.PAFC.BZ.A.0004.161126T1500Z-161126T2200Z/
BRISTOL BAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KING SALMON...DILLINGHAM...NAKNEK...
PILOT POINT
334 AM AKST FRI NOV 25 2016

...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON NORTH AND WEST OF KING SALMON...

* LOCATION...NORTH AND WEST OF KING SALMON.

* SNOW...2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST...4 TO 7 INCHES INLAND.

* VISIBILITY...VISIBILITY POSSIBLY REDUCED TO ONE-QUARTER MILE OR
  LESS AT TIMES.

* WIND...EAST WIND 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

* TIMING...GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TO
  INCREASE SATURDAY MORNING...THEN WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
  SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW 
  MAY PRODUCE WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. DRIVING MAY BECOME 
  VERY DIFFICULT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES.
THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY
DIFFICULT.

&&

$$

230 
WWAK42 PAFC 251606 CCA
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
706 AM AKST FRI NOV 25 2016

AKZ155-260415-
/O.UPG.PAFC.BZ.A.0004.161126T1500Z-161127T0900Z/
/O.COR.PAFC.BZ.W.0006.161126T1500Z-161127T0300Z/
KUSKOKWIM DELTA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BETHEL...HOOPER BAY...NUNIVAK ISLAND
706 AM AKST FRI NOV 25 2016

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM AKST SATURDAY
ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF TOKSOOK BAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM AKST SATURDAY. THE
BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* LOCATION...ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF TOKSOOK BAY.

* SNOW...2 TO 4 INCHES.

* VISIBILITY...VISIBILITY REDUCED TO ONE-QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT
  TIMES.

* WIND...NORTHEAST 25 TO 40 MPH.

* TIMING...SNOWFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER
  THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN TAPER
  OFF TO MORE SHOWERY NORTHERLY FLOW BY SATURDAY EVENING. LOW
  VISIBILITIES IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
  MORNING THOUGH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW 
  MAY PRODUCE WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. TRAVELING MAY 
  BECOME VERY DIFFICULT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT. ALL TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR
ACTIVITY IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

$$

AKZ161-260415-
/O.CON.PAFC.BZ.A.0004.161126T1500Z-161126T2200Z/
BRISTOL BAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KING SALMON...DILLINGHAM...NAKNEK...
PILOT POINT
706 AM AKST FRI NOV 25 2016

...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON NORTH AND WEST OF KING SALMON...

* LOCATION...NORTH AND WEST OF KING SALMON.

* SNOW...2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST...4 TO 7 INCHES INLAND.

* VISIBILITY...VISIBILITY POSSIBLY REDUCED TO ONE-QUARTER MILE OR
  LESS AT TIMES.

* WIND...EAST WIND 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

* TIMING...GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TO
  INCREASE SATURDAY MORNING...THEN WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
  SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW 
  MAY PRODUCE WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. DRIVING MAY BECOME 
  VERY DIFFICULT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES.
THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY
DIFFICULT.

&&

$$

837 
WWAK42 PAFC 251923
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1023 AM AKST FRI NOV 25 2016

AKZ161-260830-
/O.UPG.PAFC.BZ.A.0004.161126T1500Z-161126T2200Z/
/O.EXB.PAFC.BZ.W.0006.161126T1500Z-161127T0600Z/
BRISTOL BAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KING SALMON...DILLINGHAM...NAKNEK...
PILOT POINT
1023 AM AKST FRI NOV 25 2016

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM AKST SATURDAY
NORTH AND WEST OF KING SALMON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM AKST SATURDAY. 
THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATION...NORTH AND WEST OF KING SALMON.

* SNOW...4 TO 7 INCHES.

* VISIBILITY...REDUCED TO ONE-QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* WIND...NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

* TIMING...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO
  NORTH SATURDAY MORNING. THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
  DILLINGHAM NORTHWARD INTO INTERIOR BRISTOL BAY. WINDS AND SNOW
  WILL BOTH BEGIN TO DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING LEADING TO
  IMPROVING VISIBILITIES.

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW
  WILL PRODUCE WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS. DRIVING WILL BE VERY
  DIFFICULT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT. ALL TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR
ACTIVITY IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

$$

AKZ155-260830-
/O.CON.PAFC.BZ.W.0006.161126T1500Z-161127T0300Z/
KUSKOKWIM DELTA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BETHEL...HOOPER BAY...NUNIVAK ISLAND
1023 AM AKST FRI NOV 25 2016

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM AKST
SATURDAY ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF TOKSOOK BAY...

* LOCATION...ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF TOKSOOK BAY.

* SNOW...2 TO 4 INCHES.

* VISIBILITY...VISIBILITY REDUCED TO ONE-QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT 
  TIMES. 

* WIND...NORTHEAST 25 TO 40 MPH.

* TIMING...SNOWFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER 
  THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN TAPER 
  OFF TO MORE SHOWERY NORTHERLY FLOW BY SATURDAY EVENING. LOW 
  VISIBILITIES IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY 
  MORNING THOUGH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW 
  MAY PRODUCE WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. TRAVELING MAY 
  BECOME VERY DIFFICULT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT. ALL TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR
ACTIVITY IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
436 AM AKST Thu Nov 24 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The transition to a more zonal and active weather pattern is
underway across the region. The best evidence for this is a strong
southwesterly jet streak approaching the Central Aleutians, which
is helping to push a weather front across the Bering Sea/Aleutians
well ahead of the parent low which is situated all the way back
to the eastern Kamchatka coast. This front/jet combo is helping to
push an arctic air mass behind the front across the western
Bering heading east.

Meanwhile, an upper level ridge dominates most of the rest of the
forecast area, resulting in benign conditions from the central
Bering Sea to Southwest and Southcentral Alaska. A large broad
cyclonic circulation over the Northeast Pacific continues to move
well away from the western Gulf.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in generally good agreement with the synoptic pattern,
but with minor speed, placement, and timing differences in the
active zonal weather pattern that will have a large impact on the
intensity and duration of sensible weather over the next few days.
This makes for varying levels of confidence depending on the
location through the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Clear skies with little wind will persist today. An
approaching weather system from the Bering will bring some mid
level clouds tonight. Ceilings will then lower to 5000 ft Fri
morning with some snow showers in the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Cold and clear conditions will be the rule for southcentral Alaska
today with clouds coming in overnight. A front in the eastern
Bering Sea is moving rapidly eastward and will bring some rain
and snow to Kodiak by this evening and some light snow into the
Cook Inlet region toward tomorrow morning. Snow amounts are not
expected to be very high with only an inch or two at most places
around sea level.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The front moving across the Bering towards southwest Alaska will
first move in over the Kuskokwim Delta this afternoon. Then it
will continue to push further inland through the night. This
system will be cold enough for snow around southwest Alaska
except for the Alaska Peninsula that will see enough warm air
pulled up from the south for rain to mix in.

Winds will also accompany the front as it passes and they will be
strong enough along the Kuskokwim Delta coast this afternoon and
evening for blowing snow conditions to develop. However, this
evening as the front pushes off to the east the snow and winds
will both diminish. After the front moves through the area snow
showers will linger into Friday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The front moving across the Bering will bring rain and snow to the
area as it passes. Behind this system colder air and westerly
winds will be ushered in transitioning most of the precipitation
to snow. On Friday a new system will approach the Central
Aleutians from the North Pacific bringing more wind and rain to
the islands. This system will then track to the northeast into the
Bering spreading the rain to the Eastern Aleutians and Pribilof
Islands.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The models continue to struggle with the storm track for the storm
force low that crosses the Central Aleutians Friday evening as it
tracks eastward. The GFS/NAM push this system farther north
through the Bristol Bay interior near Cape Newenham by Saturday
evening. While the ECMWF models has a farther south track along
the Alaska Peninsula near Pilot Point before crossing over into
the Gulf by Sunday. Therefore, we opted to use the Canadian-NH
model, which had a storm track farther north along the Alaska
Peninsula near Egigik. This storm track aligned more with the
positioning of the southwesterly jet streak streaming along the
Eastern Aleutians before transitioning to a northwesterly flow in
the eastern Gulf heading into the weekend. This system will bring
storm force westerly winds along the Central/Eastern Aleutians
accompanied by a showery regime through Saturday before gradually
diminishing by Sunday as the system exits into the Gulf.
Meanwhile, the Bering winds shift out of the north bringing colder
temperatures to the region through Monday before the next storm
force low enters the Western Aleutians by Tuesday. For the
Southcentral Alaska region, a gale force low is parked in the
northern Gulf, but exits to the lower Southeastern Panhandle by
Saturday. By Saturday a weather front associated with the storm
force low located in the Bristol Bay region moves through the
Southcentral region. The precipitation will fall as all snow with
the colder air in place at the surface. By Sunday evening the
aforementioned storm tracks into the northern Gulf, and remains
almost stationary through Tuesday before dissipating. Look for the
bulk of the precipitation to remain along the northern Gulf
coastal communities. The forecast confidence remains average
through the weekend, with continued model discrepancies with the
storm tracks.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Storms 178
         Gales 127 132 150 155 160 165 170 172-177 179 180 185

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...cc
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ez
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...dk
LONG TERM...pd