Gale Warning 846, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Dec 20, 2016, 2:59 PM AKST (23:59 UTC)

Expired

Dec 21, 2016, 3:30 AM AKST

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

948 
FZAK51 PAFC 202359
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
259 PM AKST TUE DEC 20 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-211230-
259 PM AKST TUE DEC 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 982 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTHWEST OF YAKUTAT AND A 983 MB LOW 100 NM
NORTHEAST OF CHIGNIK MERGE TO FORM A 986 MB LOW 85 NM NORTHEAST OF
KODIAK CITY THEN MOVE TO 195 NM SOUTHWEST OF YAKUTAT AT 998 MB THU
AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA
THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-211230-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
259 PM AKST TUE DEC 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ120-211230-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
259 PM AKST TUE DEC 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ121-211230-
RESURRECTION BAY-
259 PM AKST TUE DEC 20 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ125-211230-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
259 PM AKST TUE DEC 20 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-211230-
PORT VALDEZ-
259 PM AKST TUE DEC 20 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ127-211230-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
259 PM AKST TUE DEC 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY 
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-211230-
VALDEZ ARM-
259 PM AKST TUE DEC 20 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-211230-
PASSAGE CANAL-
259 PM AKST TUE DEC 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING
TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ130-211230-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
259 PM AKST TUE DEC 20 2016

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE AFTERNOON.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ131-211230-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
259 PM AKST TUE DEC 20 2016

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ132-211230-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
259 PM AKST TUE DEC 20 2016

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...NW WIND 15 KT
INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ136-211230-
CHINIAK BAY-
259 PM AKST TUE DEC 20 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-211230-
MARMOT BAY-
259 PM AKST TUE DEC 20 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-211230-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
259 PM AKST TUE DEC 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-211230-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
259 PM AKST TUE DEC 20 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY AND PATCHY
FREEZING FOG.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FREEZING FOG.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-211230-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
259 PM AKST TUE DEC 20 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. AREAS OF
FREEZING FOG.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. AREAS OF
FREEZING FOG.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-211230-
KACHEMAK BAY-
259 PM AKST TUE DEC 20 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Dec 20, 6:36 AM AKST, 8 hours 23 minutes earlier.

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
636 AM AKST Tue Dec 20 2016

...UPDATE FOR THE AVIATION SECTION...

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A broad upper level trough extends from eastern Russia and the
eastern Bering to the Canadian Rockies this morning, with a
developing upper ridge over the western Bering. A nearly zonal
jet is transiting the Pacific south of 50n. Weak vortmaxes are
moving along both of flanks of the upper trough. These are
producing snow showers into the north Gulf coast as well as areas
of light snow south of the Kuskokwim river. At the surface a
broad area of low pressure resides over the southern half of the
mainland, extending over the eastern Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in good agreement through the short term. The broad
area of low pressure over the Akpen and surrounding area steadily
consolidates into a low centered over the northern Gulf through
Wed night. Another broad area of low pressure develops across the
western Bering during the same period. The vortmax currently
bringing showers to the Gulf coast will lift across the Copper
River Basin into the Yukon today into Wed. While this is
happening, the Kuskokwim River feature will dive across the
Aleutian Range into the Gulf.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Localized dense fog has formed along Knik Arm and Turnagain
Arm and spread over the airport. The lack of wind to force some
mixing to reduce or dissipate the fog makes this very challenging
to predict when the fog will mix out or lift out prior to sunrise.
THe upper trough will move up Cook Inlet later this morning and
this should help mix out the fog by noon resulting in CIGS and VIS
improving. Moisture still in the area combine with overnight
cooling will enable fog with low visibilities and ceilings to
reform again around midnight and last through early Wed morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A broad area of weak southwest flow aloft with minor embedded
waves moving across Southcentral will make for a challenging
precipitation forecast through Wed. At the surface a series of
fairly strong lows moves across the northern Gulf, though the
brunt of the energy and surface low development should shift more
toward the southern Gulf. That said, most mainland areas will see
continued chances of snow/snow showers, mixed along coasts through
Wed. Drying conditions should spread west from Cook Inlet to the
MAT-SU valleys Wed night. Pressure gradients will build across
the Gulf beginning Wed afternoon/evening and signal the onset of
brisk outflow/gap winds across the eastern Kenai Pen, North Gulf
Coast, and western Gulf marine areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

An upper trough and associated deformation zone is supporting
light snow stretching from the Ahklun/Kilbuck Mountains east
toward the Alaska Range. The entire trough will move southeast
into the Gulf of Alaska through Wednesday, with light snow moving
through Bristol Bay, especially favoring west facing slopes of the
Alaska Range/Aleutian Range. Colder air will filter in behind this
trough, along with drying conditions and clearing skies Wednesday
night and Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

Finally, the remnants of the once powerful hurricane force low
will move east and weaken this morning. Northerly winds will
move in behind the departing low through tonight before a weak
trough axis moves across the Bering Sea through Wednesday night.
Rain and snow showers will accompany this trough, but winds will
remain below gale force.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
On Wednesday night and Thursday the trough over the Gulf of Alaska
will move east, ushering in a fairly dry period for the southern
portion of the State. A flat ridge over the Bering Sea and
Aleutians will still allow some showers over that area. A low will
move into the Aleutians and southern Bering on Friday and open up
into a trough, which will mostly dissipate as it hits the western
mainland early Saturday. A large upper low will then move into the
Bering Saturday and Sunday, then settle in along the west coast of
Alaska on Sunday and Monday. The models are in better agreement
today than they have been the last few days, but ensemble guidance
was still preferred by WPC, mainly the 06z GEFS and 00z ECE
(ECMWF Ensemble).

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gales 130 138 150
         Heavy Freezing Spray 181

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RMC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
LONG TERM...BL

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2016Every gale warning in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.