Gale Warning 844, NWS Anchorage, AK

714 
FZAK52 PAFC 201219
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
319 AM AKST TUE DEC 20 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-210145-
319 AM AKST TUE DEC 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A FRONT ALONG THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA FORMS A
983 MB LOW 50 NM NORTHWEST OF TUGIDAK ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
THEN MOVES INTO THE GULF. A 998 MB LOW FORMS 100 NM NORTH OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND AT 998 MB LATE WED NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-210145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
319 AM AKST TUE DEC 20 2016

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ155-210145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
319 AM AKST TUE DEC 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT EXCEPT NW 30 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E.
SEAS 14 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT.

$$

PKZ160-210145-
BRISTOL BAY-
319 AM AKST TUE DEC 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ165-210145-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
319 AM AKST TUE DEC 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM
PORT MOLLER E...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ170-210145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
319 AM AKST TUE DEC 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ171-210145-
UNALASKA BAY-
319 AM AKST TUE DEC 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-210145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
319 AM AKST TUE DEC 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 26 FT.

$$

PKZ173-210145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
319 AM AKST TUE DEC 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ174-210145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
319 AM AKST TUE DEC 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT.

$$

PKZ175-210145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
319 AM AKST TUE DEC 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ176-210145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
319 AM AKST TUE DEC 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.

$$

PKZ177-210145-
ADAK TO KISKA-
319 AM AKST TUE DEC 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.

$$

PKZ178-210145-
KISKA TO ATTU-
319 AM AKST TUE DEC 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ179-210145-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
319 AM AKST TUE DEC 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ180-210145-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
319 AM AKST TUE DEC 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ181-210145-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
319 AM AKST TUE DEC 20 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ185-210145-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
319 AM AKST TUE DEC 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
537 AM AKST Mon Dec 19 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A broad upper level low complex continues to rotate across the
area. One upper low is north of the central Aleutians with an
associate trough stretching from north western Aleutians east
into Bristol Bay. A second upper low centered over northern Alaska
extends southwest over the Kuskokwim Delta. A third low is
centered in the northern Gulf.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models struggle regarding the details of the various lows and
troughs rotating around the periphery of broad upper trough.
The most significant differences can be seen in the waves tracking
through the Southwesterly flow and across the Gulf of Alaska
adding significant uncertainly in the short term.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Scattered snow showers have begun making their way across
the Chugach Mountains and into to PANC vicinity but remain rather
light. The snow will becoming more widespread through the morning
but should remain predominantly VFR. The light snow will taper off
in the afternoon with another round of snow possible early Tuesday
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
To put it short, mostly cloudy with chances for light snow. The
upcoming pattern looks weakly favorable for snow on the Cook Inlet
side of the Chugach, and much better for the Prince William Sound
area. The surface low pressure in the northern Gulf will bring
rain mixed with snow to the Cordova area today, and spreading
snow to the Valdez area by afternoon hours. Snow showers over
western Prince William Sound will diminish, as well as the ones
around Cook Inlet by late this morning. Tonight, a separate low
pressure system will wrap up in the northern Gulf, bringing very
similar condition as today to that region. The exact low track,
which is somewhat uncertain in model guidance, will determine how
much snow makes it over the Chugach tonight. Most of the solutions
have the low moving into Prince William Sound, which would bring
some very light snow to the Anchorage and Matanuska Valley areas.
However, with the current pattern and low track the best bet is
something further to the east in PWS. Individual waves have been
poorly handled recently, but the overall longwave pattern favors a
storm track east of here, keeping most of Southcentral in the cold
air with weak chances for snow/flurries.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The remnants of the Bering Sea front is moving inland this morning
across Bristol Bay, bringing in a mix of rain and snow. A
separate upper low is moving into the Kuskokwim Delta and Lower
Kuskokwim Valley which is supporting a separate area of light
snow. The latter feature will continue to dig into the region,
allowing for sustained light snow into Tuesday. Colder air will
begin to move into the region through Wednesday, allowing for
gradually cooling temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

The remnant low in the Southern Bering Sea remains storm force
this morning as observed by morning ASCAT passes. Rather
widespread shower activity will continue with this low as it
weakens and slowly drifts southeast through Monday night.
Thereafter, the low level winds will turn more northwesterly with
continued cold air advection rain and snow showers. This will
finally bring a period of "quieter" weather to the region as the
storm track shifts east.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Beginning the extended forecast period Wednesday, the slow moving
upper level trough over Southwest Alaska will be moving eastward.
A gulf low will shift east as well, and this will allow for cold
air advection to filter into Southcentral. This will allow for
a gradual drying trend from west to east, with light snow lasting
the longest across the Copper Basin before dry weather encompasses
most of Southern Alaska by Thursday evening. Meanwhile, the
Pacific storm track remain to the west through Thursday before two
gale force lows move into the Bering late Friday into the weekend.
This will bring in more precipitation chances across Southern
Alaska for the weekend. The low track and associated front is
somewhat uncertain this far out (day 6 and beyond), but the
general idea is for the warm front to shift from the southeast
Bering Sea into the Northern Gulf of Alaska Saturday into Sunday.
The low will be bringing enough warm air northward that at least
some rain can be expected to mix in along the coast. Stay tuned.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Heavy freezing spray 181.
         Storm 172 174 176.
         Gale 132 150 155 170 173 175 177.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JR
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MTL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
LONG TERM...JA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
255 PM AKST MON DEC 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     SNOW             4 SSE ANCHORAGE         61.16N 149.83W
12/19/2016  M1.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            1 INCH OVER 8 HRS

0230 PM     SNOW             1 SE POTTER MARSH       61.04N 149.76W
12/19/2016  M2.0 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

0245 PM     SNOW             6 SW ANCHORAGE          61.16N 149.98W
12/19/2016  M1.8 INCH                           AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            1.8 INCHES OVER 6 HRS. SNOW DEPTH 7 INCHES

&&

KUTZ