Gale Warning 691, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Nov 5, 2016, 2:40 PM AKDT (22:40 UTC)

Expired

Nov 6, 2016, 3:00 AM AKST

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

681 
FZAK52 PAFC 052240
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
240 PM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-061200-
240 PM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE ALEUTIANS THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. A
SOUTHERN KAMCHATKA 969 MB LOW MOVES TO 140 NM NORTH OF KISKA
ISLAND AT 971 MB BY MON AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT PUSHES
INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY MON AFTERNOON.


$$

PKZ150-061200-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
240 PM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ155-061200-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
240 PM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ160-061200-
BRISTOL BAY-
240 PM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ165-061200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
240 PM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
FROM PORT MOLLER E...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ170-061200-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
240 PM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 10
FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ171-061200-
UNALASKA BAY-
240 PM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ172-061200-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
240 PM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ173-061200-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
240 PM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ174-061200-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
240 PM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ175-061200-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
240 PM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ176-061200-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
240 PM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.WED...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ177-061200-
ADAK TO KISKA-
240 PM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ178-061200-
KISKA TO ATTU-
240 PM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT BUILDING TO 28 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.MON...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 29 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 29 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ179-061200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
240 PM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ180-061200-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
240 PM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ181-061200-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
240 PM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ185-061200-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
240 PM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N WIND 20 KT. W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Nov 5, 4:49 AM AKDT, 9 hours 51 minutes earlier.

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
449 AM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The active North pacific jet stream pattern persists this morning
as another strong low is forming south of the Bering Sea along the
sharp baroclinic zone. A deamplifying upper jet and associated low
is moving into the Southeast Alaska Panhandle with a rapidly
weakening low moving inland and east of the ALCAN border. A series
of weaker mesoscale lows embedded within a broad trough over the
Bering Sea and Western Gulf of Alaska will begin to move northeast
this morning. One of these surface lows is moving inland across
Bristol Bay with a band of enhanced rain and snow showers moving
inland this morning. Near Southcentral, there is another low along
the North Gulf Coast south of Prince William Sound which is
supporting a weak offshore pressure gradient.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models remain in excellent long term synoptic agreement deep
into next week. However, since the main upper jet remains well to
the south, the weaker flow pattern (not strongly forced) means
subtle wave progressions and wave mergers are not as high
confident. Precipitation with the first weak trough moving inland
today and tonight looks to remain rather light, but uncertainty
remains with how far south light snow develops. With that said,
impacts are low and this forecast will continue to take a blended
approach with widespread but light snow forecast for most
locations north of Anchorage. Thereafter, uncertainty grows with
shortwave troughs rotating toward the Gulf Coast as another North
Pacific low lifts northward. The GFS and NAM solutions depict
stronger easterly flow which would largely keep inland locations
on the drier side whereas the ECMWF and Canadian and more bullish
spreading moisture inland Sunday afternoon into Monday. For now a
blended approach was favored which keeps the best precip chances
along the coast and far Eastern Copper Basin.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Snow will develop north of Anchorage early Sat morning.
There is some uncertainty in how far south the light snow will
make it. For now, most likely scenario is the airport will only
see flurries with VFR ceilings. If snow makes it a bit farther
south there could be a brief period of marginal ceiling and vis
sometime between 15z and 21z Sat.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Broad cyclonic flow aloft with combined with multiple weak
surface low pressure centers will continue across much of
Southcentral today. Light snow with relatively minor accumulations
are expected across the Susitna and Matanuska Valleys today
through late this evening. Higher snow amounts are expected along
the Talkeetna Mountains. Flurries generally are expected across
the Anchorage Bowl with some minor accumulations possible at
higher elevations. Light snow is also expected across the Copper
River Basin with a mix along the coasts. Inland areas will dry out
some overnight tonight, however a wave moving in from the east
will bring increased chances of snow to the Copper River Basin
Sunday.

Outflow winds across the eastern Kenai Peninsula will diminish
this morning as pressure gradients relax, but will increase some
again Sunday night. A strong weather front moving north across
the Gulf tonight will bring gales to the southern Gulf tonight
and then spread north through Sunday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A weak low moving inland into Bristol Bay will bring snow showers
to much inland Bristol Bay this morning, mixing with rain along
the coast. Dynamics from this low are quite weak however, so most
areas should receive less than an inch of accumulation before
ending this afternoon. To the north of this low, a shortwave
clipping the Kuskokwim Delta will bring light snow showers
primarily to the lower Kuskokwim Valley and northern Delta.
Moisture from this wave is very low however, so accumulations
should be generally limited to a dusting. Skies throughout the
southwest will then begin to clear this evening in advance of a
North Pacific low approaching the AKpen. While this low and its
main impacts will remain well south of the area, it will bring
clearing skies and offshore flow that will continue through
Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The activity over the Bering today will be focused around the
North Pacific low that is moving just to the south of the
Aleutians. Most of the impacts from this low will come from weak
cold air advection that will develop throughout the Bering. This
system will spread rain showers to the area with northerly winds
generally remaining just below gale force through this evening.
This pattern will break down very quickly however as a front
associated with a Kamchatka low will begin to bring rain and at
least gale force southerly winds to the western Aleutians
beginning Sunday morning. This front will then move into the
central Bering/Aleutians by Monday morning, spreading rain and
gales into those areas.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
By Monday morning the next rather large low pressure center will
be entering the western Bering with the associated surface front
stretching across the central Bering and central Aleutians. Well
to the south along this front around 40N, a frontal wave will be
rapidly spinning up and tracking east-northeast along a strong
jet stream. Another deep low will be centered south of the Gulf
with a shortwave trough and secondary surface low rotating around
its northern side and dragging a frontal wave through the Gulf.
The multi-center Gulf low will remain in place with shortwaves
rotating around it through Tuesday.

The low in the western Bering will track southeast crossing the
Aleutians Tuesday and then continue to fill and dissipate Tuesday
night and Wednesday as the low to the south rapidly deepens and
takes over. The southern low will turn northeast and then north
tracking into the southern Gulf as a rather deep low on Wednesday.
The associated frontal system will reach the northern Gulf
Wednesday night bringing rainy and windy conditions to coast
areas. The front will spread inland over Southcentral and
Southwest Alaska Thursday and Friday as the low continues to track
north across the Gulf. Additional storm systems will follow a
similar path into and through the Gulf over the weekend as a more
active storm track enters the Gulf.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning 131 132 138 150 155 172 174 175 176 177 178 351
352 411.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEK
LONG TERM...JER

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2016Every gale warning in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.