Gale Warning 654, NWS Anchorage, AK

789 
FZAK61 PAFC 052256
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
256 PM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-061345-
256 PM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH MON
AFTERNOON. A 967 LOW MOVES TO 56N 140W MON MORNING AND SLIPS TO
58N 146W BY MON AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH SWEEPS OVER
SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH MON AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-061345-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
256 PM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 17 TO 21 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 17 TO 23 FT.

$$

PKZ352-061345-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
256 PM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND UP TO 20 KT BECOMING E 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT BUILDING TO 11 TO 19 FT
IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 17 TO 22 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.TUE...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.

$$

681 
FZAK61 PAFC 061209
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
309 AM AKST SUN NOV 6 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-070215-
309 AM AKST SUN NOV 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...A 961 MB NORTH
PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO 51N 146W AT 964 MB LATE TONIGHT...THEN MOVES
TO 54N 145W AT 969 MB MON NIGHT.

&&

$$

PKZ351-070215-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
309 AM AKST SUN NOV 6 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 TO 21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 17 TO 23 FT.

$$

PKZ352-070215-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
309 AM AKST SUN NOV 6 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 TO 50 KT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
407 PM AKDT FRI NOV 4 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The long-wave trough remains firmly entrenched across the Alaska
region with the storm track suppressed to the south over the
north pacific. A conglomerate of small scale lows and short-waves
are focused within a very broad cyclonic circulation from the
Bering Sea to western Gulf. These features are producing localized
areas of showers. Otherwise, conditions are quite benign across
the forecast area.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Numerical guidance remains in very good agreement with large
scale features, which will stay along the periphery of the
forecast area. Solutions are converging on a single slightly
stronger short-wave trough lifting northward across Southcentral
late tonight through Saturday, with supporting weaker waves
embedded within the flow. Thus, forecast confidence in where
precipitation is most likely to fall is much higher, with snow
likely over the Matanuska and Susitna Valleys and showers likely
across Eastern Prince William Sound. There is some uncertainty
into the precip forecast for Anchorage, with the southern edge of
steady snow likely to fall somewhere in the vicinity. Elsewhere,
confidence remains lower with weaker features and associated
showers.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Snow will develop north of Anchorage early Sat morning.
There is some uncertainty in how far south the light snow will
make it. For now, most likely scenario is the airport will only
see flurries with VFR ceilings. If snow makes it a bit farther
south there could be a brief period of marginal ceiling and vis
sometime between 15z and 21z Sat.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

An initial upper level wave will begin to bring a few snow
showers to much of south central later tonight. The Anchorage
bowl, however, will see only flurries tonight and Sat. Snow
showers will increase over the Matanuska and Susitna valleys on
Sat as upper flow becomes more southwesterly, with an inch or two
snow accumulation expected. Sat night into Sun precipitation over
inland areas will end with the arrival of weak high pressure,
while another wave brings rain showers to the coast and a few
snow showers to the Chugach and Kenai Mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Outside of isolated to scattered showers associated with a
weakening upper level low, as well as patchy fog in the morning
hours, relatively tranquil conditions with light winds are
expected. With offshore in place, temperatures will remain in the
20s and 30s for highs and teens to 20s for lows through the
weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

Small-scale lows within the broader upper level trough over Bering
will continue to impact the central Bering region tonight,
including near the Pribilofs where light rain continues especially
toward Saint George. As northerly flow begins to increase tonight
ahead of a building ridge over the western Bering, shower activity
will increase and become more widespread. This scattered to
numerous shower activity will impact areas from the Central
Aleutians east to the Alaska Peninsula including the Pribilofs
Saturday through Sunday. Winds to near gale-force and widespread
cold air advection showers will develop throughout the Bering Sea
region by Saturday afternoon. This pattern will be relatively
short-lived however as another North Pacific low will begin
rapidly moving into the Western Aleutians and western Bering
Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Late Sunday the forecast looks much the same as the current
incarnation, however, the upper air pattern remains
progressive. The jet remains well to the south of mainland Alaska
which is driving the predominant storm tracks going into
Kamchatka/Western Bering, and south of the Aleutians through the
Gulf of Alaska. A new upper level low pressure system and front
slide toward the panhandle, then the front rotates across the
north gulf coast on Monday. The weakening front will bring spotty
areas of light rain to those areas as well as gusty northerly
winds.

Into early next week, the previous system will weaken in place and
be pushed onto the mainland. This will bring a chance of rain  to
most areas as well as a warmer air mass than the one currently in
place. A new system barges into southern Gulf/North Pacific on
Wednesday with an impressive central pressure, but only a storm
force front swinging up into the northern Gulf. The main impact
for the mainland will be middle and high clouds as well as
increasing northerly winds.

Out west, a front will track across the Bering late this weekend
as the whole low pressure system drops into the Pacific, leaving
much of the Bering in a gusty northerly flow. The southwest
mainland should remain relatively quiet until northerly winds pick
up by mid-week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 132 174 176.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SEB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CC
LONG TERM...ML