Gale Warning 628, NWS Anchorage, AK

575 
FZAK52 PAFC 231125
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
325 AM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-240030-
325 AM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 972 MB LOW 290 NM NORTH OF ATTU WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND
OVER SIBERIA THIS AFTERNOON. A 980 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO 190 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ATTU LATE TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN TO 964 MB MON
AFTERNOON 270 NM NORTH OF ATTU BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER SIBERIA
MON NIGHT. A THIRD LOW WILL MOVE TO 170 NM WEST OF ADAK MON
AFTERNOON AT 976 MB AND STRENGTHEN TO 968 MB AS IT MOVES 210 NM
WEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND MON NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-240030-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
325 AM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ155-240030-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
325 AM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT SE 15 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E.
SEAS 13 FT EXCEPT 5 FT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ160-240030-
BRISTOL BAY-
325 AM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ165-240030-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
325 AM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ170-240030-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
325 AM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ171-240030-
UNALASKA BAY-
325 AM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ172-240030-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
325 AM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING W LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT.
PERIODS OF RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ173-240030-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
325 AM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING W LATE MORNING. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 60 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ174-240030-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
325 AM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING W LATE MORNING. SEAS 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 55 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ175-240030-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
325 AM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT.
.MON...S WIND 45 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 65 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ176-240030-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
325 AM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON...S WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 60 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18
FT BUILDING TO 24 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 60 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.

$$

PKZ177-240030-
ADAK TO KISKA-
325 AM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
19 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 50 KT BECOMING SE 65 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 27 FT.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 60 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT.

$$

PKZ178-240030-
KISKA TO ATTU-
325 AM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 50 KT E OF SHEMYA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT...EXCEPT W WIND 30 KT W OF KISKA. SEAS 23
FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT.

$$

PKZ179-240030-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
325 AM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. PERIODS OF RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 55 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.

$$

PKZ180-240030-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
325 AM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ181-240030-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
325 AM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 55 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ185-240030-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
325 AM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...S WIND 40 KT
BECOMING SE 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 23 FT
IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 65 KT. SEAS 31 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

778 
FZAK52 PAFC 232344
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
344 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-241230-
344 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 972 MB LOW 500 NM WEST OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND WILL MOVE NORTHWEST AND
WEAKEN. A 978 MB LOW 250 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA SUN EVENING WILL
MOVE TO 500 NM WEST OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND AT 950 MB MON EVENING
AND CONTINUE MOVING NORTH THROUGH TUE. A STRONG WEATHER FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA MON AND
MOVE INTO BRISTOL BAY TUE.


$$

PKZ150-241230-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
344 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT DURING THE EVENING.
SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ155-241230-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
344 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT W OF THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS
IN THE EVENING. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ160-241230-
BRISTOL BAY-
344 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ165-241230-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
344 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE EVENING.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
PORT MOLLER E...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ170-241230-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
344 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 55 KT. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ171-241230-
UNALASKA BAY-
344 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ172-241230-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
344 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ173-241230-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
344 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 65 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ174-241230-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
344 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

...HURRICANE FORCE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 65 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.

$$

PKZ175-241230-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
344 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT.
.MON...S WIND 55 KT INCREASING TO 65 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 65 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
21 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ176-241230-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
344 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...S WIND 50 KT INCREASING TO 65 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16
FT BUILDING TO 23 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 65 KT BECOMING W 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
25 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ177-241230-
ADAK TO KISKA-
344 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 60 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
19 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 65 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 28 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 26 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ178-241230-
KISKA TO ATTU-
344 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 50 KT BECOMING W 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20
FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ179-241230-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
344 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 50 KT INCREASING TO 60 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT BUILDING TO 25 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 22 FT.

$$

PKZ180-241230-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
344 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ181-241230-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
344 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT BECOMING SE 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...S WIND 55 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ185-241230-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
344 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

...STORM WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 50
KT IN THE AFTERNOON. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...S WIND 45 KT
BECOMING SE 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT
IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 60 KT. SEAS 29 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 55 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
454 AM AKDT SAT OCT 22 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The upper level low over the Southern Mainland last night has now
tracked southward into the Southern Gulf, leaving a weak and
elongated easterly progressing upper level wave over the Southern
Mainland in it's wake. At the surface, a low tracking into the
eastern gulf continues to push showers along the Northern Gulf
coast and surrounding areas, as seen in current radar imagery.
Current observations are also showing the outflow winds
surrounding Prince William steadily increasing, as the pressure
gradient tightens with the approach of the low.

Out West, ridging over the central and eastern Bering Sea
combined with lower pressure over the Gulf, continues to produce
gusty northerly winds across much of Southwest Alaska and Bristol
Bay. Further west, a front associated with a North Pacific low
southwest of Shemya continues to progress eastward into the
Central Bering and Aleutians today. Current observations are
showing that this system is currently bringing gusty southerly
winds, a few lightning strikes southeast of Shemya, and some
warmer temperatures to the area.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in good agreement through the much of the short
term, with some minor discrepancies regarding the strength and
placement of the low west of Shemya Sunday night. The High-Res
NAM was used in the east, mainly for more detailed winds and for
the timing of the outflow winds. Whereas out west, the GFS20 was
utilized out west.

.Aviation...

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the day with SKC conditions
developing early this morning. Gusty northerly winds of 25 to 30
kts are expected throughout the day and should gradually weaken
starting late this afternoon. By midnight, winds will likely be
less than 10 kt.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The main focus for this package will be colder temperatures and
gusty winds, especially for favored gap locations along the north
gulf coast. Snow for this event is wrapped up with only cloud
cover leftover from this disturbance along with arctic air
filtering down through the Alaska Range. This arctic air and high
pressure inland will help drive outflow winds through the
Matanuska Valley, Seward, Whittier, and Valdez, among other areas.
Winds will peak in this afternoon and slowly diminish in
intensity through Sunday. As the winds taper off Sunday, cold air
will slightly moderate as lack of cloud cover allows for
insolation and warming of the low levels. Still expect
temperatures a little below normal for this time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
The upper ridge nudges across the Southwest today and stalls on
Sunday with the ridge centering over Bristol Bay into Monday
morning bringing clear skies across the region. Winds are
expected to gust along the western Alaska and Aleutian Ranges
through this afternoon and then taper off as the surface ridge
moves inland from the Bering. Subsidence along the periphery of
the ridge sinks colder air to the surface tonight, dropping
temperatures into the single digits and teens across the eastern
areas of the Kuskokwim Valley and Bristol Bay.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

The jet stream pushes a strong storm system across Shemya today bringing
max gale winds with storm force gusts and heavy rain along the
boundary. The front moves into the Pribilof Islands late this
afternoon with the southern extent of the boundary making it to
the easter Aleutians this evening. Northerly flow across the
Alaska Peninsula switches around to the south by tonight as the
front slides east. Gusty conditions are expected to strongest
along the western side of the peninsula as the surface becomes
stationary over the Southwest. Another system spins up rapidly
over the Kamchatka Peninsula late Sunday, potentially bringing
storm force winds across the western Bering and Aleutians late
Sunday into Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The Southcentral region has an upper level ridge moving into the
region. This results in northerly offshore flow accompanied by
colder air filtering into the region through the upcoming midweek.
By Wednesday the ridge moves eastward allowing southwesterly flow
with warmer temperatures to advect into the Southcentral region.
Meanwhile, the Bering Sea has several low pressure systems
tracking from the south to north direction before exiting into the
Eastern Siberian region. These systems progressively become more
stronger with each passing storm. By Monday afternoon the GFS has
a 971 mb low tracking across the Western Aleutians before rapidly
intensifying to a 959 mb storm force low located in the central
Bering by Monday evening. As this system moves farther north look
for hurricane force southwesterly winds to develop just southwest
of Saint Matthew Island by Tuesday morning. This system brings
widespread rain/stratus with warmer temperatures to the Bering
through the upcoming midweek time-frame. By Wednesday this systems
exits the region across the Eastern Siberian region into the
Chukchi Sea. Therefore, the Bering/Aleutians will be under a
showery weather regime through rest of next week.

The models have been struggling with this major Bering Storm with
the ECMWF moving this system faster. While the GFS has been
stronger with this system, and slower. The intensity of these
systems between models has ranged from 20 to 30 millibars but has
become closer in there differences with each model run. The GFS
was the preferred model of choice in the long term time-period.
This system remains under close scrutiny for the possible weather
impacts as it tracks through the Bering.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Blizzard Warning...131.
MARINE...Gale...121,126-128,130-132,136,150,173,175,177,178,185

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...TP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MTL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...PD