Gale Warning 627, NWS Anchorage, AK

215 
FZAK51 PAFC 222307
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
307 PM AKDT SAT OCT 22 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-231200-
307 PM AKDT SAT OCT 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1002 MB LOW 175 NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL DISSIPATE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GULF
THROUGH MON.

$$

PKZ119-231200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
307 PM AKDT SAT OCT 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER
DELTA. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER
DELTA. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ120-231200-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
307 PM AKDT SAT OCT 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ121-231200-
RESURRECTION BAY-
307 PM AKDT SAT OCT 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-231200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
307 PM AKDT SAT OCT 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-231200-
PORT VALDEZ-
307 PM AKDT SAT OCT 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-231200-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
307 PM AKDT SAT OCT 22 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-231200-
VALDEZ ARM-
307 PM AKDT SAT OCT 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-231200-
PASSAGE CANAL-
307 PM AKDT SAT OCT 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE
EVENING. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-231200-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
307 PM AKDT SAT OCT 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-231200-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
307 PM AKDT SAT OCT 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ132-231200-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
307 PM AKDT SAT OCT 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. N OF
DANGEROUS CAPE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT EXCEPT N 20 KT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ136-231200-
CHINIAK BAY-
307 PM AKDT SAT OCT 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-231200-
MARMOT BAY-
307 PM AKDT SAT OCT 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-231200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
307 PM AKDT SAT OCT 22 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-231200-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
307 PM AKDT SAT OCT 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-231200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
307 PM AKDT SAT OCT 22 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-231200-
KACHEMAK BAY-
307 PM AKDT SAT OCT 22 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
426 PM AKDT FRI OCT 21 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A weakening deformation zone continues from the Gulf of
Alaska, across the central Gulf, to over the Copper River Basin.
Snow was continuing to fall over the Copper River Basin, as well
as, the Valdez and Thompson Pass area. Warmer air kept
precipitationas rain along the Gulf Coast. Flurries continued
across the Anchorage Bowl and MATSU valleys this afternoon. Out
West, ridging over the eastern Bering Sea combined with lower
pressure over the Gulf produced brisk northerly winds across much
of Southwest Alaska and Bristol Bay. Except for a few showers
associated with open cell cu over the eastern Bering Sea,
conditions were relatively dry.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models in general were in good agreement through the short term.
The high Res WRF and NAM with used in the east with a combination
of the NAM and GFS out west.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The arctic trough is now digging into the Northern Gulf of Alaska
this evening. The deformation zone has shifted east, and the
associated snow band with it. Accumulating snow threats will
continue in parts of the Copper Basin and Valdez areas into
tomorrow before the offshore pressure gradient strengthens and
dries Southcentral out.

The main story then becomes strong offshore winds as the gradient
along the coast strengthens tonight. Peak winds will occur after
midnight tonight through Saturday morning before slowly tapering
off Saturday night. However, northerly flow aloft and another
shortwave diving down will keep enough of a gradient for outflow
winds to continue through Sunday. Due to the amount of
accumulating snow in Thompson Pass, a blizzard warning has been
issued from mile post 23 to 33 where the coldest temperatures and
best blowing snow conditions are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
Ridging will continue to move in over southwest Alaska where it
will help to clear out cloud cover and allow for overnight
temperatures to drop into the teens for inland locations. The
ridging will hold strong into Monday and will only allow an
approaching front from the Bering to make it over coastal areas of
the Kuskokwim Delta Monday morning. The other concern from the
ridge for southwest Alaska is overnight fog formation around the
Kuskokwim Delta tonight and Saturday night. The uncertainty comes
with how much winds in the area will die down overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
The Bering and Aleutians will be characterized by several lows and
fronts streaming through the area from the North Pacific for the
next several days. The strong southerly push from each of these
systems will be enough to keep precipitation rain for the Bering
and Aleutians. The strongest system, which looks to bring storm
force winds to the Central Aleutians Monday, will track into the
southern Bering late Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The Southcentral region has an upper level ridge moving into the
region. This results in northerly offshore flow accompanied by
colder air filtering into the region through the upcoming midweek.
By Wednesday the ridge moves eastward allowing southwesterly flow
with warmer temperatures to advect into the Southcentral region.
Meanwhile, the Bering Sea has several low pressure systems
tracking from the south to north direction before exiting into the
Eastern Siberian region. These systems progressively become more
stronger with each passing storm. By Monday afternoon, the GFS
has a 971 mb low tracking across the Western Aleutians before
rapidly intensifying to a 959 mb storm force low located in the
central Bering by Monday evening. As this system moves farther
north look for hurricane force southwesterly winds to develop just
southwest of Saint Matthew Island by Tuesday morning. This system
brings widespread rain/stratus with warmer temperatures to the
Bering through the upcoming midweek time-frame. By Wednesday this
systems exits the region across the Eastern Siberian region into
the Chukchi Sea. Therefore, the Bering/Aleutians will be under a
showery weather regime through rest of next week.

The models have been struggling with this major Bering Storm with
the ECMWF moving this system faster. While the GFS has been
stronger with this system, and slower. The intensity of these
systems between models has ranged from 20 to 30 millibars but has
become closer in there differences with each model run. The GFS
was the preferred model of choice in the long term time-period.
This system remains under close scrutiny for the possible weather
impacts as it tracks through the Bering.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Blizzard warning zone 131
MARINE...gales 125 126 127 130 131 132 138 139 140 173 175 177 178
               185 411 412 413 414.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EN
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JA
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...PD