Gale Warning 624, NWS Anchorage, AK

161 
FZAK51 PAFC 212327
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
327 PM AKDT FRI OCT 21 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-221245-
327 PM AKDT FRI OCT 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-221245-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
327 PM AKDT FRI OCT 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ120-221245-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
327 PM AKDT FRI OCT 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ121-221245-
RESURRECTION BAY-
327 PM AKDT FRI OCT 21 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-221245-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
327 PM AKDT FRI OCT 21 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF
NORTHERN BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-221245-
PORT VALDEZ-
327 PM AKDT FRI OCT 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-221245-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
327 PM AKDT FRI OCT 21 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-221245-
VALDEZ ARM-
327 PM AKDT FRI OCT 21 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-221245-
PASSAGE CANAL-
327 PM AKDT FRI OCT 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR
WHITTIER. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-221245-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
327 PM AKDT FRI OCT 21 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ131-221245-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
327 PM AKDT FRI OCT 21 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ132-221245-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
327 PM AKDT FRI OCT 21 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ136-221245-
CHINIAK BAY-
327 PM AKDT FRI OCT 21 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-221245-
MARMOT BAY-
327 PM AKDT FRI OCT 21 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.MON...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ138-221245-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
327 PM AKDT FRI OCT 21 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-221245-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
327 PM AKDT FRI OCT 21 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO
15 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SAT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ140-221245-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
327 PM AKDT FRI OCT 21 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 13 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-221245-
KACHEMAK BAY-
327 PM AKDT FRI OCT 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

121 
FZAK51 PAFC 221141
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
341 AM AKDT SAT OCT 22 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-230045-
341 AM AKDT SAT OCT 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 993 MB LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH SUN
NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ119-230045-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
341 AM AKDT SAT OCT 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER DELTA. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER
DELTA. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ120-230045-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
341 AM AKDT SAT OCT 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
7 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ121-230045-
RESURRECTION BAY-
341 AM AKDT SAT OCT 22 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-230045-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
341 AM AKDT SAT OCT 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
7 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-230045-
PORT VALDEZ-
341 AM AKDT SAT OCT 22 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-230045-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
341 AM AKDT SAT OCT 22 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-230045-
VALDEZ ARM-
341 AM AKDT SAT OCT 22 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-230045-
PASSAGE CANAL-
341 AM AKDT SAT OCT 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-230045-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
341 AM AKDT SAT OCT 22 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ131-230045-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
341 AM AKDT SAT OCT 22 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ132-230045-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
341 AM AKDT SAT OCT 22 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. N OF
DANGEROUS CAPE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT EXCEPT N 20 KT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ136-230045-
CHINIAK BAY-
341 AM AKDT SAT OCT 22 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-230045-
MARMOT BAY-
341 AM AKDT SAT OCT 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ138-230045-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
341 AM AKDT SAT OCT 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-230045-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
341 AM AKDT SAT OCT 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ140-230045-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
341 AM AKDT SAT OCT 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-230045-
KACHEMAK BAY-
341 AM AKDT SAT OCT 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
431 PM AKDT THU OCT 20 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS..

Water vapor satellite imagery this morning shows two main upper
level features driving much of the weather across the state this
afternoon. An impressive upper level trough associated with
copious amounts of cold air covers much of the western mainland.
It is currently draped just to the west of the Alaskan and
Aleutian Mountains and will push towards Anchorage in the
overnight hours. A second wave is associated with the upper level
low centered in the Gulf of Alaska, and is helping to usher
moisture westward across Prince William Sound and even has
supported a few sprinkles in the Anchorage Bowl this morning. The
interaction between these two features will help to fuel the
development of widespread showers by this evening.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models remain in great synoptic agreement and all indicate the
development of widespread showers across the Kenai Peninsula,
Anchorage Bowl and Matanuska Valley by this evening. However,
small differences between the models are contributing to
noticeable differences in the timing and amount of precipitation
across Anchorage. The NAM is much faster, and develops
precipitation by mid-afternoon, with snow showers by this evening.
The GFS model indicates a slower development of showers and later
transition to rain. Currently went with the middle ground in terms
of snowfall amounts, but amounts could be an inch or so higher.

.Aviation...

Ceilings are expected to drop below 5000 ft by late
afternoon/early evening as a rain and snow mix develops.
Precipitation is expected to transition to all snow by late this
evening with IFR conditions and a few inches of accumulation. VFR
conditions are expected by Friday morning as the weather system
pushes to the east, and gusty northerly winds will develop by
Friday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

An arctic trough is digging into Southern Alaska this evening
which is merging with a remnant low from the Northern Gulf of
Alaska. A rather impressive stretching deformation zone can be
seen on satellite imagery from Cook Inlet to the Brooks Range.
Clouds and precipitation are forming along this region of
convergence with cold arctic air beginning to move across the
Alaska Range. Snow has already developed in the Susitna Valley
with rain showers from Anchorage to the Matanuska Valley. The 00z
sounding shows a freezing level of 3100 feet and a wet bulb zero
level of 2500 feet. It will take time to erode the low level warm
layer, so snow is expected to hold off until after dark. Snow
accumulations will generally be light with 1-2 inches in lower
elevation areas with higher amounts in the upslope faces of the
Chugach and Talkeetna Mountains. Temperatures drop below freezing
by morning, so this may create some slick driving conditions for
the morning commute.

The low moves into the Gulf Friday, with the associated
precipitation band also moving east into the Copper Basin.
Increasing offshore flow will allow for impressive outflow winds
near the coast, with some gusts pushing into the 60 MPH range
near Thompson Pass Saturday. With accumulating snow Friday, there
will be some blowing snow and reduced visibility in Thompson Pass
Friday evening into Saturday. Saturday will see drying conditions
and a maximum in the pressure gradient along the coast with slowly
diminishing gap winds Saturday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The Southwest Alaska region remains under offshore northerly winds
resulting in sunny skies during the day, and clear/brisk nights
heading into this weekend. Look for cooler temperatures resulting
from an upper level trough as it drops down from the north before
tracking eastward into the Southcentral region. Therefore, cold
air advection is moving into the region combined with a high
pressure ridge building in from the Eastern Siberian region. As
this synoptic feature moves eastward it will result in favorable
conditions for fog developing in the Kuskokwim Delta region by
Saturday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The storm force low dropping off the Kamchatka Peninsula tracks
toward the Western Aleutians with the associated weather front
moves into the Western Aleutians/Bering by Friday morning. This
results in gale force southeasterly winds before shifting
southwesterly with the frontal passage by Friday afternoon. Look
for widespread rain/stratus as this synoptic feature moves into
the western Bering. Meanwhile, a storm force North Pacific Low
tracks toward the Western Aleutians by late Friday evening
bringing another round of gale force southwesterly winds to the
aforementioned region. Otherwise, the rest of the Bering will be
under the influence of high pressure moving in from the Eastern
Siberian region, except for some gusty northerly gap winds along
the Eastern Aleutians as we head into the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The mid term for the southern mainland is characterized by cold
air advection and a ridge building in from the west that will
bring outflow winds through the weekend. As the ridge moves off to
the east, winds will die down, but it is unclear how long the
fair conditions will last. That is because of the uncertainty that
remains with the system moving into the Bering Tuesday. There
still remains a fair amount of variation in the models handling of
this feature. However, the deterministic solutions are starting to
lean towards a stronger low moving through the central Bering,
while the ensembles keep the main low further west. Overall there
is better agreement than yesterday but still enough uncertainty to
keep confidence low for specific impacts.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...GALES 127, 128 130 131 132 138 177 178 185 411 412 413.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EN
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JA
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...DK