Alert archive / Alaska / Gale Warnings in 2016

Gale Warning 568, NWS Anchorage, AK

October 21, 2016

NWS Anchorage, AK issued this gale warning at Oct 21, 2016, 3:16 PM AKDT. It was in force for 48 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Oct 21, 2016, 3:16 PM AKDT (23:16 UTC)
Expired
Oct 23, 2016, 3:32 PM AKDT
In force
48 hr
Issued by
NWS Anchorage, AK

The text

As transmitted.

189 
FZAK62 PAFC 212316
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
316 PM AKDT FRI OCT 21 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-221345-
316 PM AKDT FRI OCT 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 973 MB LOW MOVES TO 53N 170E SAT AFTERNOON AND MOVES TO 57N
172E LATE SAT AT 975 MB BEFORE MOVING INLAND NEAR KAMCHATKA SUN
AFTERNOON. A WEATHER FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE BERING SEA THROUGH SAT MORNING BEFORE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-221345-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
316 PM AKDT FRI OCT 21 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...SW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.

$$

PKZ412-221345-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
316 PM AKDT FRI OCT 21 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 15 FT.
.MON...S WIND 45 TO 60 KT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 TO 25 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT.

$$

PKZ413-221345-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
316 PM AKDT FRI OCT 21 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.MON...S WIND 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 21 FT.

$$

PKZ414-221345-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
316 PM AKDT FRI OCT 21 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$
4 follow-up statements
798 
FZAK62 PAFC 221148
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
348 AM AKDT SAT OCT 22 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-230100-
348 AM AKDT SAT OCT 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 971 MB PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 57N 172E AT 973 MB
TONIGHT...THEN MOVE INLAND NEAR KAMCHATKA SUN AFTERNOON.  A
WEATHER FRONT OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE
EASTERN BERING BY SUN NIGHT. A 980 MB PACIFIC LOW WILL DEVELOP SUN
AFTERNOON AND MOVE TO 54N 171E AT 976 MB BY SUN NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-230100-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
348 AM AKDT SAT OCT 22 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 TO 16 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.

$$

PKZ412-230100-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
348 AM AKDT SAT OCT 22 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 20 FT. PERIODS OF RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13
TO 18 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT.
.MON...S WIND 45 TO 60 KT. SEAS 16 TO 31 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 45 TO 60 KT. SEAS 19 TO 34 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT.

$$

PKZ413-230100-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
348 AM AKDT SAT OCT 22 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. PERIODS OF RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.MON...S WIND 45 TO 60 KT. SEAS 14 TO 29 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 TO 27 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 18 FT.

$$

PKZ414-230100-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
348 AM AKDT SAT OCT 22 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. PERIODS OF RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 15 FT.

$$
450 
FZAK62 PAFC 222323
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
323 PM AKDT SAT OCT 22 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-231330-
323 PM AKDT SAT OCT 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 971 MB PACIFIC LOW NEAR 52N 171E MOVES TO 60N 170E AT 975 MB
SUN AFTERNOON. A 980 MB LOW NEAR 51N 168E SUN EVENING MOVES TO
60N 170E AT 965 MB MON AFTERNOON. A DEVELOPING NORTH PACIFIC LOW
MOVES TO 52N 178E AT 970 MB MON AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-231330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
323 PM AKDT SAT OCT 22 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT BECOMING S 30 TO 45 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 27 FT.

$$

PKZ412-231330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
323 PM AKDT SAT OCT 22 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT. PERIODS OF RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 TO
16 FT.
.MON...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 50 TO 65 KT. SEAS 20 TO 35 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 20 TO 35 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 26 FT.

$$

PKZ413-231330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
323 PM AKDT SAT OCT 22 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. PERIODS OF RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT BECOMING S 25 TO 40 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.MON...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 45 TO 60 KT. SEAS 19 TO 33 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 TO 28 FT.

$$

PKZ414-231330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
323 PM AKDT SAT OCT 22 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. PERIODS OF RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.

$$
814 
FZAK62 PAFC 231110
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
310 AM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-240115-
310 AM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 972 MB LOW NEAR 58N 171E WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND OVER
SIBERIA THIS AFTERNOON. A 980 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO 51N 169E LATE
TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN TO 964 MB MON AFTERNOON AT 57N 173E BEFORE
MOVING INLAND OVER SIBERIA MON NIGHT. A THIRD LOW WILL MOVE TO
52N 179E MON AFTERNOON AT 976 MB AND STRENGTHEN TO 968 MB AS IT
MOVES TO 59N 179W MON NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-240115-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
310 AM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 14 TO 21 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 TO 26 FT.

$$

PKZ412-240115-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
310 AM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 TO 20 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT.
.MON...S WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 50 TO 65 KT. SEAS 20 TO 32 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 16 TO 31 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.

$$

PKZ413-240115-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
310 AM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.MON...S WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 50 TO 65 KT. SEAS 19 TO 29 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 TO 27 FT.

$$

PKZ414-240115-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
310 AM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT BECOMING S 15 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.MON...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT INCREASING TO 20 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$
398 
FZAK62 PAFC 232332
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
332 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-241330-
332 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 972 MB LOW NEAR 60N 170E WILL MOVE NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN. A 978
MB LOW NEAR 51N 168E SUN EVENING WILL MOVE TO 60N 170E AT 950 MB
MON EVENING AND CONTINUE MOVING NORTH THROUGH TUE. A STRONG
WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA MON AND MOVE INTO BRISTOL BAY TUE.

$$

PKZ411-241330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
332 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT BECOMING S 40 TO 55 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 40 TO 55 KT BECOMING SW 30 TO 45 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 TO 22 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 TO 22 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 TO 22 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.

$$

PKZ412-241330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
332 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT.
.MON...S WIND 45 TO 60 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 50 TO 65 KT. SEAS 20 TO 30 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 18 TO 26 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 19 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.

$$

PKZ413-241330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
332 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT BECOMING S 25 TO 40 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.MON...S WIND 45 TO 60 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 50 TO 65 KT BECOMING SW 40 TO 55 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 19 TO 29 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 21 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 19 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 26 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ414-241330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
332 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2016

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING S 20 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 35 TO 50 KT INCREASING TO 45 TO 60 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Oct 21, 5:46 AM AKDT, 9 hours 30 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 21, 5:46 AM AKDT, 9 hours 30 minutes before
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
546 AM AKDT FRI OCT 21 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

As expected, the deformation band developed overnight over the
Cook Inlet region with some embedded convective activity. While
the Kenai NEXRAD was showing pretty high reflectivities overnight,
it appears these were enhanced due to bright banding as snow was
melting as it fell through the melting layer. Rain has changed
over to snow this morning but a tad later than expected as colder
air has been slower to filter through the Alaska Range. Talkeetna
on the other hand has been snow from last evening onwards with
rough estimates from ASOS liquid totals showing 2 to 3 inches of
wet snow. The transition from rain to snow will continue from
west to east through the early morning hours but with the later
timing of the cold air, snow totals may be a little lower across
Anchorage and parts of the Matanuska Valley.

Looking back at the big picture, a hodgepodge of troughs and
ridges encompass Alaska and the coastal waters. The feature that
will impact the mainland the most is an arctic trough extending
from the arctic all the way into the northwestern Gulf of Alaska.
This trough is responsible for the cold air that has been filtering
in across the state. The trough will provide extra lift across
Southcentral Alaska through the morning hours which will keep snow
(and possibly some rain) common across the Cook Inlet region
through the morning. A very nice upper level low is developing off
the eastern coast of the Kamchatka Peninsula and is in the
process of pushing a gale force front across the western Bering
Sea. The front will quickly stall out over the western Bering Sea
today as downstream ridging from the aforementioned low amplifies
in response to the deepening low.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models continue to remain in good agreement with the evolution of
the synoptic pattern. The biggest question, however, still remains
as cold air has been slow to filter into Southcentral Alaska.
Depending on the model of choice, precipitation tapers off at
different times depending on how quickly the upper level trough
pushes through. As of now, the GEM is verifying the best based on
convective precipitation observed prior to midnight over the Kenai
Peninsula. The GEM solution would favor a longer lasting precip
event which would be helpful to squeezing out a little extra snow
given how slow the cold air has been displacing the warmer air.

.Aviation...

Ceilings are expected to remain below drop below 1000 ft through
the early evening morning hours as snow continues to fall over the
area. IFR conditions will then rise back to VFR conditions by late
morning as the weather system pushes to the east. Gusty northerly
winds will develop by this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Snow will continue early this morning, followed by a colder air
mass and windy conditions in most areas the next couple days. Snow
will taper off in most areas by mid-morning today, leaving a total
storm accumulation of 1-3 inches around the area. Snow will linger
along the east side of Anchorage and the Hillside the longest,
possibly through mid-day.

A disturbance getting caught up in the incoming trough will
spread moisture from Cordova this morning through Valdez and into
the Copper River Basin bringing rain early to the coast, mixing
with snow toward Valdez, and all snow inland. Snow will linger in
the Copper River Basin and Prince William Sound into this evening
before tapering off.

Behind this system, cold air filters in from the Alaska Range, and
will drive gusty winds across the Southcentral, even more so
through favored gaps of the Chugach into Prince William Sound,
which will linger through Sunday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An upper level disturbance diving across the southwest will bring
snow showers through the afternoon, then cooler and drier
conditions ensue through Saturday night. Northerly flow is
expected to be gusty through Saturday afternoon and then taper off
in the evening as ridges tracks from the eastern Bering. Patchy
fog during the night time hours may develop as temperature
inversions steepen overnight across the Kuskokwim Delta.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A strong storm system along the western Aleutians and Bering will
bring rain and gusty winds further north and east by this
afternoon. The eastern Bering and Alaska Peninsula remains under
the influence of dry northerly flow until the front pushes through
on Saturday. The low center pushing the front moves quickly north
along the western Bering on Saturday. This system re-enforces
strong southerly gusts into Sunday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The mid term forecast for much of the Southern Mainland is
characterized by cold air advection and a ridge building in from
the west that will bring outflow winds through the beginning of
next week. As the ridge moves off to the east, winds will die
down, but it is still unclear as to how long the fair conditions
will remain over the area. This is due to continued uncertainty
between the models as the system moves from the North Pacific into
the Bering by Tuesday. Once the ridge gives way to the Bering Sea
system, the overall pattern becomes more progressive in increasing
zonal flow with multiple systems tracking into the Bering and Gulf
through next weekend.

The EC remains the most bullish and fastest solution bringing a
much stronger system into the Western and Central Aleutians Monday
night, and quickly tracking it to the Northern Bering Tuesday
morning. Where on the other hand, the GFS and Canadian are both
carrying a much weaker and slightly slower solution, but have
trended slightly stronger with the most recent model runs. Overall
there is slightly better agreement than yesterday, but still
enough uncertainty to keep confidence low for specific impacts.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...GALES 121 126 127 128 130 131 132 138 150 173 177 178 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MTL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...TP

In the hours before

Local storm report, Oct 21, 11:41 AM AKDT, 3 hours 35 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1141 AM AKDT FRI OCT 21 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0611 AM     SNOW             2 NE RABBIT CREEK       61.11N 149.78W
10/21/2016  E4.0 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

0630 AM     SNOW             4 S SPENARD             61.13N 149.89W
10/21/2016  E2.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

0635 AM     SNOW             5 SSE SPENARD           61.13N 149.83W
10/21/2016  E2.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

0645 AM     SNOW             4 WNW PALMER            61.62N 149.21W
10/21/2016  E3.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

0700 AM     SNOW             1 N PALMER              61.61N 149.11W
10/21/2016  E3.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

0700 AM     SNOW             3 ESE ANCHORAGE         61.20N 149.80W
10/21/2016  M6.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

0700 AM     SNOW             5 SW ANCHORAGE          61.16N 149.99W
10/21/2016  E2.4 INCH                           AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

0700 AM     SNOW             5 S SPENARD             61.12N 149.91W
10/21/2016  E1.8 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

0700 AM     SNOW             5 WSW ANCHORAGE         61.18N 150.00W
10/21/2016  E1.0 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

0700 AM     SNOW             6 SW ANCHORAGE          61.16N 150.00W
10/21/2016  M2.4 INCH                           AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

0700 AM     SNOW             3 NW GLEN ALPS          61.13N 149.77W
10/21/2016  E3.0 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

0700 AM     SNOW             2 E EAGLE RIVER         61.32N 149.51W
10/21/2016  M4.1 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

0700 AM     SNOW             KENAI                   60.55N 151.21W
10/21/2016  E1.0 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

0700 AM     SNOW             6 NNW PALMER            61.68N 149.18W
10/21/2016  M8.0 INCH                           AK   MESONET

0800 AM     SNOW             2 SE EAGLE RIVER        61.30N 149.52W
10/21/2016  E2.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

0800 AM     SNOW             4 SSW ANCHORAGE         61.16N 149.94W
10/21/2016  E3.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

0830 AM     SNOW             2 NNE EAGLE RIVER       61.35N 149.55W
10/21/2016  M5.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

0845 AM     SNOW             4 SSE ANCHORAGE         61.16N 149.82W
10/21/2016  M5.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

0845 AM     SNOW             2 SE ANCHORAGE          61.19N 149.83W
10/21/2016  M4.0 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

0930 AM     SNOW             3 E ANCHORAGE           61.21N 149.78W
10/21/2016  E5.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

0945 AM     SNOW             8 SSE EAGLE RIVER       61.21N 149.48W
10/21/2016  E4.2 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

0945 AM     SNOW             4 WNW PALMER            61.62N 149.21W
10/21/2016  M4.8 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            4.8 INCHES OVER 12 HOURS...SNOW IS HAS STARTED TO TAPER
            OFF

0958 AM     SNOW             3 S RIDGEWAY            60.49N 151.08W
10/21/2016  E3.1 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER EQUIVALENT 0.39

1005 AM     SNOW             7 NW PALMER             61.68N 149.26W
10/21/2016  M6.1 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

1030 AM     SNOW             1 N PALMER              61.61N 149.11W
10/21/2016  M4.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            STILL SNOWING

1100 AM     SNOW             6 S SPENARD             61.11N 149.89W
10/21/2016  M4.0 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

&&

LINGRAM
Local storm report, Oct 21, 11:57 AM AKDT, 3 hours 19 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1157 AM AKDT FRI OCT 21 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 AM     SNOW             6 SE SPENARD            61.13N 149.78W
10/21/2016  M4.5 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

&&

LINGRAM
Local storm report, Oct 21, 11:58 AM AKDT, 3 hours 18 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1158 AM AKDT FRI OCT 21 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0611 AM     SNOW             2 NE RABBIT CREEK       61.11N 149.78W
10/21/2016  E4.0 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

0630 AM     SNOW             4 S SPENARD             61.13N 149.89W
10/21/2016  E2.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

0635 AM     SNOW             5 SSE SPENARD           61.13N 149.83W
10/21/2016  E2.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

0645 AM     SNOW             4 WNW PALMER            61.62N 149.21W
10/21/2016  E3.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

0700 AM     SNOW             KENAI                   60.55N 151.21W
10/21/2016  E1.0 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

0700 AM     SNOW             2 E EAGLE RIVER         61.32N 149.51W
10/21/2016  M4.1 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

0700 AM     SNOW             3 NW GLEN ALPS          61.13N 149.77W
10/21/2016  E3.0 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

0700 AM     SNOW             6 SW ANCHORAGE          61.16N 150.00W
10/21/2016  M2.4 INCH                           AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

0700 AM     SNOW             5 WSW ANCHORAGE         61.18N 150.00W
10/21/2016  E1.0 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

0700 AM     SNOW             5 S SPENARD             61.12N 149.91W
10/21/2016  E1.8 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

0700 AM     SNOW             5 SW ANCHORAGE          61.16N 149.99W
10/21/2016  E2.4 INCH                           AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

0700 AM     SNOW             3 ESE ANCHORAGE         61.20N 149.80W
10/21/2016  M6.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

0700 AM     SNOW             1 N PALMER              61.61N 149.11W
10/21/2016  E3.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

0700 AM     SNOW             6 NNW PALMER            61.68N 149.18W
10/21/2016  M8.0 INCH                           AK   MESONET

0800 AM     SNOW             2 SE EAGLE RIVER        61.30N 149.52W
10/21/2016  E2.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

0800 AM     SNOW             4 SSW ANCHORAGE         61.16N 149.94W
10/21/2016  E3.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

0830 AM     SNOW             2 NNE EAGLE RIVER       61.35N 149.55W
10/21/2016  M5.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

0845 AM     SNOW             2 SE ANCHORAGE          61.19N 149.83W
10/21/2016  M4.0 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

0845 AM     SNOW             4 SSE ANCHORAGE         61.16N 149.82W
10/21/2016  M5.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

0930 AM     SNOW             3 E ANCHORAGE           61.21N 149.78W
10/21/2016  E5.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

0945 AM     SNOW             8 SSE EAGLE RIVER       61.21N 149.48W
10/21/2016  E4.2 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

0945 AM     SNOW             4 WNW PALMER            61.62N 149.21W
10/21/2016  M4.8 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            4.8 INCHES OVER 12 HOURS...SNOW IS HAS STARTED TO TAPER
            OFF

0958 AM     SNOW             3 S RIDGEWAY            60.49N 151.08W
10/21/2016  E3.1 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER EQUIVALENT 0.39

1005 AM     SNOW             7 NW PALMER             61.68N 149.26W
10/21/2016  M6.1 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

1030 AM     SNOW             1 N PALMER              61.61N 149.11W
10/21/2016  M4.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            STILL SNOWING

1100 AM     SNOW             6 S SPENARD             61.11N 149.89W
10/21/2016  M4.0 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

1115 AM     SNOW             6 SE SPENARD            61.13N 149.78W
10/21/2016  M4.5 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

&&

LINGRAM
Local storm report, Oct 21, 12:50 PM AKDT, 2 hours 26 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1250 PM AKDT FRI OCT 21 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0611 AM     SNOW             2 NE RABBIT CREEK       61.11N 149.78W
10/21/2016  E4.0 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

0630 AM     SNOW             4 S SPENARD             61.13N 149.89W
10/21/2016  E2.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

0635 AM     SNOW             5 SSE SPENARD           61.13N 149.83W
10/21/2016  E2.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

0645 AM     SNOW             4 WNW PALMER            61.62N 149.21W
10/21/2016  E3.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

0700 AM     SNOW             3 NW GLEN ALPS          61.13N 149.77W
10/21/2016  E3.0 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

0700 AM     SNOW             2 E EAGLE RIVER         61.32N 149.51W
10/21/2016  M4.1 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

0700 AM     SNOW             KENAI                   60.55N 151.21W
10/21/2016  E1.0 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

0700 AM     SNOW             6 NNW PALMER            61.68N 149.18W
10/21/2016  M8.0 INCH                           AK   MESONET

0700 AM     SNOW             6 SW ANCHORAGE          61.16N 150.00W
10/21/2016  M2.4 INCH                           AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

0700 AM     SNOW             3 ESE ANCHORAGE         61.20N 149.80W
10/21/2016  M6.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

0700 AM     SNOW             5 SW ANCHORAGE          61.16N 149.99W
10/21/2016  E2.4 INCH                           AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

0700 AM     SNOW             5 S SPENARD             61.12N 149.91W
10/21/2016  E1.8 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

0700 AM     SNOW             5 WSW ANCHORAGE         61.18N 150.00W
10/21/2016  E1.0 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

0700 AM     SNOW             1 N PALMER              61.61N 149.11W
10/21/2016  E3.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

0800 AM     SNOW             2 SE EAGLE RIVER        61.30N 149.52W
10/21/2016  E2.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

0800 AM     SNOW             4 SSW ANCHORAGE         61.16N 149.94W
10/21/2016  E3.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

0830 AM     SNOW             2 NNE EAGLE RIVER       61.35N 149.55W
10/21/2016  M5.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

0845 AM     SNOW             4 SSE ANCHORAGE         61.16N 149.82W
10/21/2016  M5.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

0845 AM     SNOW             2 SE ANCHORAGE          61.19N 149.83W
10/21/2016  M4.0 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

0930 AM     SNOW             3 E ANCHORAGE           61.21N 149.78W
10/21/2016  E5.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

0945 AM     SNOW             4 WNW PALMER            61.62N 149.21W
10/21/2016  M4.8 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            4.8 INCHES OVER 12 HOURS...SNOW IS HAS STARTED TO TAPER
            OFF

0945 AM     SNOW             8 SSE EAGLE RIVER       61.21N 149.48W
10/21/2016  E4.2 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

0958 AM     SNOW             3 S RIDGEWAY            60.49N 151.08W
10/21/2016  E3.1 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER EQUIVALENT 0.39

1005 AM     SNOW             7 NW PALMER             61.68N 149.26W
10/21/2016  M6.1 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

1030 AM     SNOW             1 N PALMER              61.61N 149.11W
10/21/2016  M4.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            STILL SNOWING

1100 AM     SNOW             6 S SPENARD             61.11N 149.89W
10/21/2016  M4.0 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

1115 AM     SNOW             6 SE SPENARD            61.13N 149.78W
10/21/2016  M4.5 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

1235 PM     SNOW             2 E EAGLE RIVER         61.32N 149.51W
10/21/2016  M7.1 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

1235 PM     SNOW             5 SSE ANCHORAGE         61.15N 149.80W
10/21/2016  M7.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

1235 PM     SNOW             2 WSW GLEN ALPS         61.09N 149.74W
10/21/2016  M10.0 INCH                          AK   PUBLIC

1235 PM     SNOW             5 SW ANCHORAGE          61.16N 149.98W
10/21/2016  M2.6 INCH                           AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

1235 PM     SNOW             SSW ANCHORAGE           61.21N 149.88W
10/21/2016  M2.5 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

1235 PM     SNOW             11 NW MOOSE CREEK STATE 61.79N 149.28W
10/21/2016  M12.0 INCH                          AK   MESONET

1235 PM     SNOW             6 ESE FLAT TOP MOUNTAIN 61.07N 149.48W
10/21/2016  M12.0 INCH                          AK   MESONET

&&

LINGRAM
Local storm report, Oct 21, 1:25 PM AKDT, 1 hour 51 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
125 PM AKDT FRI OCT 21 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0123 PM     SNOW             TALKEETNA               62.34N 150.09W
10/21/2016  E3.0 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

            SNOW TOTAL ESTIMATED ABOUT 2-3 INCHES

&&

LINGRAM
Local storm report, Oct 21, 2:55 PM AKDT, 21 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
255 PM AKDT FRI OCT 21 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0254 PM     SNOW             1 E POTTER MARSH        61.05N 149.75W
10/21/2016  E4.5 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

&&

DK

The office that day

Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 21, 3:40 AM AKDTGale WarningAFC60 hr
Oct 21, 3:40 AM AKDTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC60 hr
Oct 21, 3:46 AM AKDTGale WarningAFC35 hr
Oct 21, 5:30 AM AKDTGale WarningAFC22 hr
Oct 21, 11:20 AM AKDTBlizzard WarningAFC22 hr
Oct 21, 3:16 PM AKDTGale WarningAFC36 hr
Oct 21, 3:16 PM AKDTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC48 hr
Oct 21, 3:27 PM AKDTGale WarningAFC24 hr
Oct 21, 3:27 PM AKDTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC12 hr

Nearby

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2016Every gale warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.