Gale Warning 555, NWS Anchorage, AK

956 
FZAK62 PAFC 072307
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
307 PM AKDT FRI OCT 7 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-081300-
307 PM AKDT FRI OCT 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 955 MB LOW NEAR 54N 176W WILL MOVE TO 60N 178E AT 962 MB SAT
AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE TO EASTERN SIBERIA SUN AFTERNOON. A 990 MB
LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR 56N 163W SAT AFTERNOON AND MOVE TO 62N 168W
AT 988 MB BY SUN MORNING. A NORTHWEST PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 51N
173E AT 970 MB SUN AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ411-081300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
307 PM AKDT FRI OCT 7 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ412-081300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
307 PM AKDT FRI OCT 7 2016

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 35 TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 TO 26 FT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ413-081300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
307 PM AKDT FRI OCT 7 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT. RAIN. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ414-081300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
307 PM AKDT FRI OCT 7 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.SUN...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

403 
FZAK62 PAFC 081137
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
337 AM AKDT SAT OCT 8 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-090100-
337 AM AKDT SAT OCT 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 959 MB LOW NEAR 57N 178W MOVES TO NEAR EASTERN RUSSIA THIS
EVENING. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT NEAR THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA COAST MOVES
INLAND TONIGHT. A 981 MB LOW NEAR 49N 174W SUN MORNING MOVES TO
53N 178W AT 965 MB LATE SUN NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-090100-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
337 AM AKDT SAT OCT 8 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ412-090100-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
337 AM AKDT SAT OCT 8 2016

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 TO 50 KT BECOMING SW 25 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 TO 27 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ413-090100-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
337 AM AKDT SAT OCT 8 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ414-090100-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
337 AM AKDT SAT OCT 8 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

992 
FZAK62 PAFC 082302
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
302 PM AKDT SAT OCT 8 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-091300-
302 PM AKDT SAT OCT 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 962 MB LOW NEAR 60N 178E WILL MOVE TO NEAR EASTERN RUSSIA
TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT OVER THE EASTERN BERING WILL MOVE
INLAND OVER THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA COAST TONIGHT. A NORTHWEST
PACIFIC LOW WILL BECOME A BROAD COMPLEX LOW CENTERED NEAR 53N
174W AT 964 MB BY MON AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-091300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
302 PM AKDT SAT OCT 8 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.THU...NW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ412-091300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
302 PM AKDT SAT OCT 8 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 11 TO 14 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ413-091300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
302 PM AKDT SAT OCT 8 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 TO 22 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ414-091300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
302 PM AKDT SAT OCT 8 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.WED...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

967 
FZAK62 PAFC 091134
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
334 AM AKDT SUN OCT 9 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-100130-
334 AM AKDT SUN OCT 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A NORTHWEST PACIFIC LOW WILL STRENGTHEN TO 965 MB NEAR 51N 178E
THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE TO NEAR 51N 175W LATE TONIGHT AT THE
SAME STRENGTH. THE SYSTEM THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS NEAR 51N 164W LATE
TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-100130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
334 AM AKDT SUN OCT 9 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
TO 15 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.THU...NW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ412-100130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
334 AM AKDT SUN OCT 9 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ413-100130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
334 AM AKDT SUN OCT 9 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 30 TO 45 KT BECOMING NE 25 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ414-100130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
334 AM AKDT SUN OCT 9 2016

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

928 
FZAK62 PAFC 092314
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
314 PM AKDT SUN OCT 9 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-101330-
314 PM AKDT SUN OCT 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 972 MB LOW NEAR 50N 174E WILL BE A 972 MB LOW AT 53N 163W TUE
AFTERNOON. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE CENTER WITHIN THE BROAD LOW
COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP NEAR 53N 162W AT 980 MB MON AFTERNOON
INTENSIFY TO 974 MB AT 56N 172W TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-101330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
314 PM AKDT SUN OCT 9 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.THU...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ412-101330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
314 PM AKDT SUN OCT 9 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ413-101330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
314 PM AKDT SUN OCT 9 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 30 TO 45 KT BECOMING NE 25 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ414-101330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
314 PM AKDT SUN OCT 9 2016

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
443 PM AKDT THU OCT 6 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A modified omega blocking pattern aloft continues across the AOR.
A sharp ridge extends from the southwest Gulf of Alaska to over
the central interior with a weakening low over the eastern Gulf
and a long wave trough extending southeast across the Bering Sea
and eastern Aleutians. Generally clear skies with weak offshore
flow continue across Southcentral Alaska. Further west, strong
southerly flow on the backside of the ridge maintains a broad N/S
baroclinic zone across the eastern Aleutians/eastern Bering Sea.
Gale force southerly winds were observed across much of the
eastern Bering Sea/east Aleutians, as well as, the AK Pen.
Precipitation was observed along the Eastern Aleutians/East
Bering Sea/AK Pen.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The models are in surprising good agreement with the track and
intensity of ex-typhoon Chaba as it heads toward the Aleutians.
Considering this extra-tropical system develops under a strong
nearly zonal upper jet. The GFS was the preferred model with this
low. A secondary low develops in the NE Pacific under the left
exit region of upper jet and heads to the Western AK Pen on Sat. A
blend of the GFS and Canadian Global will be used with this
feature.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Generally VFR conditions are expected into Fri. However,
there will be some patchy ground fog in the VCNTY of the airport
Fri morning. Conditions at this time are expected to remain VFR
through Fri, but some very brief periods of lower visibilities may
occur during the morning hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A closed upper-level high pressure center over the northwest part
of the state is producing another spectacular day across nearly
the entire forecast area. The only clouds evident on afternoon
satellite imagery are out in the gulf and around Kodiak island,
although even Kodiak is seeing another day of unusually dry
conditions as virtually all of the significant active weather is
being confined well west of the Alaska range. Overnight low
temperatures this morning were the coldest of the season so far,
and each of the next two nights should be more of the same. A
little bit of fog formation on parts of the Kenai Peninsula and
maybe even around Anchorage can't be completely ruled out, as the
weak dry offshore flow at the lower levels will be pretty much
coming to an end tonight. Nevertheless, any fog that does form
will be short-lived and is not likely to become widespread.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Skilak glacier-dammed lake, high in the Kenai mountains, has begun
to release. This event usually occurs every 2 years in the fall,
and sends a significant amount of water into Skilak Lake and then
onto the lower Kenai river. The good news this year is that, with
dry weather for the last week, and more dry weather for the next
week, river levels are starting fairly low (compared to water
levels during the summer and as recently as 2 weeks ago). So while
the Skilak lake and lower Kenai river areas will see water level
rises in the 1-3 ft range through early next week, it does not at
this point look like water will get high enough to cause any
flooding issues.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A strong ridge of high pressure centered over mainland Alaska will
stall the incoming frontal system over the eastern Bering and
Alaska Peninsula as it gradually weakens through Friday. Clouds
and windy conditions will spread as far east as the western coast
with precipitation remaining mainly over Nunivak Island and the
Alaska Peninsula. Some patchy fog is possible late tonight over
Kuskokwim valley but otherwise the weather will remain party
cloudy to mostly clear and dry until Friday night or Saturday when
a developing frontal wave pushes precipitation slightly further
inland over the Kuskokwim Delta and western portions of the
Bristol Bay area.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The extra-tropical system containing the remnants of Chaba will
rapidly strengthen as it tracks east-northeast towards the central
Aleutians tonight. As the surface low crosses the Aleutian chain
near Amchitka Friday morning, it will still be deepening so think
high wind warning level winds are likely for the central Aleutians
with a broad swath of storm force winds of 50 to 60 knots in the
adjacent marine waters. The low will become vertically stacked as
it tracks north through the central Bering Friday night and
Saturday allowing it to weaken slightly but still remaining a
rather large and significant feature supporting Gales over a broad
area. Another developing frontal wave south of the eastern
Aleutians will track north across the western tip of the Alaska
Peninsula Saturday and then continue north bringing around 45 knot
winds to its east across Bristol Bay and coast waters to the
north.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Dominating high pressure over mainland Alaska looks to continue
into mid next week keeping most of the active weather over the
Bering, Aleutians, and Gulf of Alaska. Confidence does diminish
early next week as the models are struggling with the weaker lows
moving through the pattern. However, there is still some consensus
with the high lingering over the area. As far as when and where
the various lows will impact coastal areas there is much less
certainty based on the models struggling to handle the upper level
pattern. Because of this the ensembles where preferred to get a
middle ground solution.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JR
LONG TERM...DEK