Gale Warning 516, NWS Anchorage, AK

516 
FZAK51 PAFC 121147
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
347 AM AKDT MON SEP 12 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-130115-
347 AM AKDT MON SEP 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF THIS
AFTERNOON. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ENTERS THE WESTERN GULF MON
AFTERNOON AND MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH TUE.

$$

PKZ119-130115-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
347 AM AKDT MON SEP 12 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT EARLY THIS MORNING DIMINISHING TO S 20 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE COAST.
.TONIGHT AND TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ120-130115-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
347 AM AKDT MON SEP 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT BY LATE MORNING. 
SEAS 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING W 30 KT. 
SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ121-130115-
RESURRECTION BAY-
347 AM AKDT MON SEP 12 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT OR LESS IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-130115-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
347 AM AKDT MON SEP 12 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT EARLY THIS MORNING
BECOMING S 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-130115-
PORT VALDEZ-
347 AM AKDT MON SEP 12 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS IN THE MORNING BECOMING SW 15
KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-130115-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
347 AM AKDT MON SEP 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S WIND 25 KT BY LATE MORNING.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-130115-
VALDEZ ARM-
347 AM AKDT MON SEP 12 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-130115-
PASSAGE CANAL-
347 AM AKDT MON SEP 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE MORNING. 
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-130115-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
347 AM AKDT MON SEP 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-130115-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
347 AM AKDT MON SEP 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING W 30 KT. 
SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ132-130115-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
347 AM AKDT MON SEP 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING W 15 KT. 
SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ136-130115-
CHINIAK BAY-
347 AM AKDT MON SEP 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-130115-
MARMOT BAY-
347 AM AKDT MON SEP 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-130115-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
347 AM AKDT MON SEP 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING SW 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ139-130115-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
347 AM AKDT MON SEP 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-130115-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
347 AM AKDT MON SEP 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-130115-
KACHEMAK BAY-
347 AM AKDT MON SEP 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT TOWARD THE INLET. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
455 AM AKDT SUN SEP 11 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The main low impacting the forecast area is just south of the
Eastern Aleutians. The front associated with this low is bringing
up a strong push of moisture from the Pacific and is currently
pushing through southwest Alaska. Widespread rain is making it
further inland over the southwest as the front moves through. The
front also extends out over Kodiak Island and is making its way
closer to the Kenai Peninsula. The rest of Southcentral Alaska
remains under the influence of the diminishing ridge overhead.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models are in good agreement with synoptic features leading to
high confidence in the movement of these features through the mid
term. The issues come in localized areas, specifically winds in
channeled areas around Southcentral Alaska. For these areas the
higher resolution models were used resulting in stronger channeled
winds.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Relatively light sustained winds out of the southeast
occasionally gust early this morning and then quickly increase
with a tightening pressure gradient by mid morning. At the same
time, a low level jet develops across the western Kenai, northern
Cook Inlet, to the southern Susitna. This brings wind shear
issues through early Monday. VFR conditions are expected through
this afternoon with a transition to MVFR through late tonight as
a trough axis moves up from the inlet with the advancing surface
low across the eastern Bering. Conditions are expected to improve
Monday morning, however there is still some uncertainty in the
timing and track of this system.

&&.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Models last evening into the overnight continue to trend more
aggressive with winds across the Anchorage area later today. As a
result, we have increased winds for all parts of town and extended
the High Wind Warning into East Anchorage and the Lower Hillside.
While this has the potential to be a notable early season
windstorm, it is not anticipated to approach the major September
2012 windstorm. Nevertheless, with extensive foliage still on
trees, this will be a more impactful event than if this were
occurring a month later.

As the winds weaken Sunday night, the heaviest rain is expected
to move inland and will last through Monday morning as the front
moves eastward. Showery and cloudy weather will continue through
Monday as the main upper trough moves through the region, with the
possibility of a thunderstorm or two over the Western Kenai
Peninsula region Monday afternoon given models continuing to show
sufficient instability.

By Monday night the first true cold front of the season will move
southwest-to-northeast across the Cook Inlet region and northern
and western Gulf of Alaska, ending the rainfall as it passes
through and bringing increased low-level winds and a cooler air
mass into the region.

Along the coast with this storm, rain will be locally heavy at
times with local streams and rivers expected to rise rapidly in
response. Rivers will remain well below flood levels, but those
who are prone to fast rising streams and rivers should remain
cautious.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The frontal system associated with a large low centered south of
the eastern Aleutians is lifting north through Southwest Alaska
early this morning. With a well defined, strengthening triple
point low evident on satellite imagery to the east of the
Pribilofs, expect to see east to southeasterly winds continue to
strengthen across Southwest Alaska this morning with widespread
moderate to heavy rain continuing to spread onshore. The triple
point low will track to just south of Nunivak Island by late
afternoon and then swing inland across the Kuskokwim Delta through
the evening shifting winds to the south to southwest. As the
trough trailing south of the low shifts onshore tonight through
Monday morning winds will turn west to northwesterly and
precipitation will become more showery with isolated thunderstorms
possible in cool, unstable post frontal air mass.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The large vertically stacked low south of the eastern Aleutians
will open to a trough as it swings east along the Alaska Peninsula
tonight and off to the east Monday. Upper level ridging over the
western Aleutians will move over the central Aleutians tonight,
eastern Aleutians Monday and Alaska Peninsula Monday night. A
frontal system approaching from the west will reach the western
Aleutians tonight and continue east down the chain through Monday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The upper levels have a trough sweeping through from the north
which brings a swath of showers across the northern AOR by
Tuesday before exiting our region by Wednesday morning. While
upstream an amplified ridge is located over the Eastern Aleutians
extending into the northern Bering resulting in patchy fog/stratus.
This feature get pushed eastward going into Wednesday resulting in
sunny skies for the Southcentral/Southwest region. Meanwhile, a
storm force North Pacific low is located over the Western Aleutians
with a triple point low positioned just southwest of Unalaska. This
system brings gale force easterly winds through the central/western
Bering as it tracks eastward. By Wednesday, these two lows phase
into one system located just west of Nikolski accompanied by gale
force northeasterly winds through the Bering. Therefore, look for
a showery weather regime as this system tracks along the Alaska
Peninsula by Friday. Therefore, the Bering/Aleutians will be
dominated by northwesterly flow with gusty gap winds along the
Eastern Aleutians. Look for a secondary low to develop in the Gulf
by Thursday with gale force southeasterly winds along the northern
Gulf. This system moves inland by Thursday afternoon with the bulk
of the precipitation along the northern coastal communities.
Otherwise, the Gulf of Alaska will be influenced by southerly flow
bringing a scattered showery regime for the Southcentral region
heading into Friday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CC
AVIATION...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JR
LONG TERM...PD