Gale Warning 504, NWS Anchorage, AK

707 
FZAK61 PAFC 302309
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
309 PM AKDT FRI SEP 30 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-011345-
309 PM AKDT FRI SEP 30 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A WEATHER FRONT IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF SAT AFTERNOON THEN STALL. A 1003 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR 58N
152W SAT EVENING AND MOVE TO 56N 149W LATE SUN MORNING THEN
DISSIPATE. A 1001 MB LOW AT 53N 147W LATE SAT NIGHT WILL MOVE TO
54N 144W SUN AFTERNOON AT 992 MB.

$$

PKZ351-011345-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
309 PM AKDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S WIND UP TO 15 KT BY
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.

$$

PKZ352-011345-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
309 PM AKDT FRI SEP 30 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT BY MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.

$$

620 
FZAK61 PAFC 011124
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
324 AM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-020130-
324 AM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A WEATHER FRONT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF SAT AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING. A 1002 MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR
58N 151W SUN MORNING THEN MOVES TO 57N 146W AT 1005 MB MON
MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING BY MON AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-020130-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
324 AM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ352-020130-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
324 AM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. W OF 148W...WIND SHIFTING 
TO W 15 TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

939 
FZAK61 PAFC 012335
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
335 PM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-021330-
335 PM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...A FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. A 1000 MB LOW FORMS AT 57N
150W SUN MORNING AND EXITS THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF MON MORNING
BEFORE DISSIPATING.

$$

PKZ351-021330-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
335 PM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND UP TO 20 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ352-021330-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
335 PM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

214 
FZAK61 PAFC 021122
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
322 AM AKDT SUN OCT 2 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-030130-
322 AM AKDT SUN OCT 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE GULF 
OF ALASKA THROUGH SUN EVENING. A 1000 MB LOW FORMS AT 57N 149W
THIS MORNING THEN DISSIPATES OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF SUN EVENING.

$$

PKZ351-030130-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
322 AM AKDT SUN OCT 2 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.THU...SE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.

$$

PKZ352-030130-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
322 AM AKDT SUN OCT 2 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 25 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.

$$

491 
FZAK61 PAFC 022308
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
308 PM AKDT SUN OCT 2 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-031345-
308 PM AKDT SUN OCT 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 1001 MB LOW AT 56N 148W WILL EXIT THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA
AND DISSIPATE SUN NIGHT. A FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN
GULF THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-031345-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
308 PM AKDT SUN OCT 2 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.

$$

PKZ352-031345-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
308 PM AKDT SUN OCT 2 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.

$$

204 
FZAK61 PAFC 031114
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
314 AM AKDT MON OCT 3 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-040130-
314 AM AKDT MON OCT 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 989 MB LOW NEAR 54N 139W WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC BY MONDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN 
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-040130-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
314 AM AKDT MON OCT 3 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.

$$

PKZ352-040130-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
314 AM AKDT MON OCT 3 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
414 PM AKDT THU SEP 29 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
There is a high amplitude upper level ridge over southern Alaska
with its axis over southwest Alaska. Surface high pressure has
built over inland portions of the state with some lee troughing
along the north Gulf coast. This is producing some offshore flow
for coastal portions of south central Alaska. There is a large
and deep upper low over over northeastern Russia. A gale force
front associated with this low stretches from Saint Matthew Island
through the Pribilofs and the eastern Aleutians into the north
Pacific. There is a low spinning up south of the Aleutians and
just east of 180 degrees longitude that is moving rapidly towards
the north- northeast.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The numerical models are in good agreement through the short term
portion of the forecast (Saturday afternoon). This leads to a
higher than normal forecast confidence.

&&

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Clear skies dominate once more across Southcentral this afternoon,
with an amplified ridge gradually shifting eastwards from the
southwest mainland. As high pressure becomes further established,
expect temperatures to continue to be cool in the overnight hours
over the next several days, with patchy frost likely. As high
pressure builds in across the interior tonight, the contrast with
the trough over the Gulf will be enough to support offshore
northwesterly flow through the usual coastal gaps. Winds are
expected to be sustained in the 15-25 mph range through the Barren
Islands, Valdez Arm, and the Copper River Delta. Otherwise, dry
air and clear skies are expected to persist into the weekend,
allowing for good aurora viewing at night.

The only significant precipitation to note will be associated with
an approaching front on the west side of the upper level ridging.
It is expected to begin on the southern side of Kodiak Island very
late Friday night into Saturday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Tonight will be the last quiet weather period before the next
front arrives. Patchy dense fog is still possible before the
ridging overhead completely moves out of the area, mainly for
eastern areas of the Kuskokwim Valley and Greater Bristol Bay. The
pressure gradient will tighten in response to the developing
Bering low, bringing winds along the coast and through Aleutian
Range gaps up in the 30 to 50 mph range. The actual frontal
boundary will push onshore late Friday night, spreading rain
inland through Saturday. The front weakens overhead on Saturday,
leaving the mainland under the upper level low, keeping showers
and areas of rain in the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A strong Bering Sea low and front will affect the area for the
next two days, bringing strong wind and waves. A weak decaying
front from Unalaska through the Pribilofs will continue to move
eastward tonight bringing spotty precipitation to the eastern
Bering Sea and Alaska Peninsula. At the same time, a new system
continues to develop south of the Central Aleutians. Widespread
gale force winds are expected along with storm force gusts. The
strongest winds will be through channeled terrain of the Alaska
Peninsula Friday afternoon as the low crosses the chain with gusts
to 70 mph in that area. However, the front is quick moving so any
gusts that high will diminish rather quickly. That system weakens
as it moves ashore through Saturday, with some gusty gales on the
backside of the system for the Pribilof islands.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Starting Saturday evening, a gale force front associated with a
low over the eastern Bering will bring gusty winds and rain from
the western Gulf into the southwest Mainland through Sunday. The
models have come into good agreement with a slightly faster and
stronger front, so this was generally sped up from previous forecasts.
Immediately behind this front, a wave just south of the AKPEN will
rapidly deepen as it moves into the Gulf on Sunday, dragging the
front southward into the Gulf. As a result it appears that most of
the winds and rain from this system will remain confined to the
western Gulf and eastern Kenai Peninsula, while most of Southcentral
and Prince William Sound should remain mostly dry with the exception
of a some spotty rain showers. By early Monday, the models have
all trended significantly deeper with the low as it moves into the
southern Gulf, allowing us to significantly increase winds throughout
the Gulf an Kodiak Island region into Tuesday. This system will remain
far enough south of the Mainland to bring clearing skies and offshore
flow to most areas through Tuesday. The Gulf Coast will likely see
gusty outflow winds from this system, however without a strong high
pressure over the mainland these are not expected to be significant.

By the middle of next week model agreement begins to diminish with
the details, but there is generally good confidence that a broad
trough will setup somewhere over the Bering with weak ridging over
the Mainland. This pattern would bring continued active weather to
the Bering Sea, Aleutians, and possibly into the southwest
Mainland. Ridging would then bring generally quiet weather to most
of the mainland to the east of the Alaska Range.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...storms 155 180. gales 150 160 165 170 172 173 174 175 176
177 179 180 185. 411 412 413.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ML
LONG TERM...DEK