Storm Warning 106, NWS Anchorage, AK

419 
FZAK52 PAFC 010644 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1044 PM AKDT FRI SEP 30 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-011915-
1044 PM AKDT FRI SEP 30 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 984 MB LOW 100 NM WEST OF NIKOLSKI WILL MOVE TO 50 NM SOUTHWEST
OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND LATE TONIGHT AT 981 MB THEN TO 250 NM WEST
OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND SAT NIGHT THEN INTO NORTHEAST RUSSIA SUN
MORNING. A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SAT AFTERNOON
WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SUN.

$$

PKZ150-011915-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
1044 PM AKDT FRI SEP 30 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO
20 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
19 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ155-011915-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
1044 PM AKDT FRI SEP 30 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 50 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 30 KT TOWARDS
MORNING. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ160-011915-
BRISTOL BAY-
1044 PM AKDT FRI SEP 30 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ165-011915-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
1044 PM AKDT FRI SEP 30 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GUSTS TO 60 KT IN THE EVENING OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 11 FT.
RAIN. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ170-011915-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
1044 PM AKDT FRI SEP 30 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING W 40 KT. SEAS
12 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ171-011915-
UNALASKA BAY-
1044 PM AKDT FRI SEP 30 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO
40 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ172-011915-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
1044 PM AKDT FRI SEP 30 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.

$$

PKZ173-011915-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
1044 PM AKDT FRI SEP 30 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
19 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ174-011915-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
1044 PM AKDT FRI SEP 30 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ175-011915-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
1044 PM AKDT FRI SEP 30 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ176-011915-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
1044 PM AKDT FRI SEP 30 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ177-011915-
ADAK TO KISKA-
1044 PM AKDT FRI SEP 30 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ178-011915-
KISKA TO ATTU-
1044 PM AKDT FRI SEP 30 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ179-011915-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
1044 PM AKDT FRI SEP 30 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN
BECOMING SW 30 KT TOWARDS MORNING. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...W WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ180-011915-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
1044 PM AKDT FRI SEP 30 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ181-011915-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
1044 PM AKDT FRI SEP 30 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT TOWARD MORNING.
SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ185-011915-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
1044 PM AKDT FRI SEP 30 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N 40 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

609 
FZAK52 PAFC 011141
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
341 AM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-020030-
341 AM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 979 MB LOW 50 NM NORTH OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND MOVES 290 NM NORTHWEST
OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AT 981 MB SUN MORNING BEFORE MOVING INTO
NORTHEAST RUSSIA. A 997 MB LOW 220 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA SAT
AFTERNOON MOVES 230 NM WEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND AT 996 MB SUN
AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING 70 NM NORTHWEST OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND MON
AFTERNOON. A 987 MB LOW 190 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA MON MORNING
MOVES 210 NM NORTH OF SHEMYA AT 986 MB MON AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-020030-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
341 AM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 17 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ155-020030-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
341 AM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT EXCEPT 25 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E.
SEAS 18 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ160-020030-
BRISTOL BAY-
341 AM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ165-020030-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
341 AM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT EXCEPT SW 30 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS 12
FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM PORT MOLLER E...SEAS
13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ170-020030-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
341 AM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 20 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ171-020030-
UNALASKA BAY-
341 AM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ172-020030-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
341 AM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 19 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ173-020030-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
341 AM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT IN THE MORNING DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ174-020030-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
341 AM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 17 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.

$$

PKZ175-020030-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
341 AM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ176-020030-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
341 AM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT.

$$

PKZ177-020030-
ADAK TO KISKA-
341 AM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

PKZ178-020030-
KISKA TO ATTU-
341 AM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ179-020030-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
341 AM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 50 KT BY MIDDAY...THEN
DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ180-020030-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
341 AM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ181-020030-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
341 AM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ185-020030-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
341 AM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...W WIND 40 KT. E OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
446 AM AKDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The upper air pattern is amplifying this morning as a deepening
North Pacific low lifts northward toward the Eastern Aleutians.
Quite a bit of warm air advection is moving across the Bering
toward the Chukchi Sea, and this process is amplifying a large
ridge across mainland Alaska. Gusty southerly gap winds are
already developing across the Eastern Aleutians, and western Akpen
ahead of the strengthening surface low. Farther east, offshore
flow is weakening as a shortwave trough digs into the Panhandle of
Alaska and ridging aloft builds in. This dry offshore flow is
largely keeping fog at bay across Southcentral.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The numerical models are in excellent agreement with the general
large scale synoptic pattern through Monday. They are in excellent
agreement with the storm force low expected to move through the
Eastern Bering Sea as well as its eastward progress. Forecast
confidence is extremely high.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
With low level flow continuing to slacken through the early
morning hours and temperatures falling expect there to be at
least some patchy shallow fog, primarily in the Cook Inlet
region where the upper ridge is moving overhead. Otherwise,
with the exception of a few high clouds rounding the ridge,
expect abundant sunshine today.

As the ridge slides eastward Tonight through Saturday Night a
strong front will move in from the Bering Sea and Aleutians. There
is high confidence that this will arrive sooner, with rain and
winds reaching Kodiak Island by early Saturday and spreading to
the Kenai Peninsula Saturday afternoon and evening. There is much
greater uncertainty with the track of the upper trough Saturday
Night, which will determine how far north and east the rain will
spread. Have generally upped PoPs from Anchorage up to the Mat-Su.
Southeasterly flow will provide some downslope drying early on,
but expect this to weaken allowing an increased chance of light
rain overnight Saturday Night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
One more morning of patchy fog will be seen across the Bristol
Bay area, and Lower Kuskokwim Valley this morning. The departing
ridge of high pressure gives way to a potent front that is
currently in the process of developing in the North Pacific south
of Nikolski. Cloud cover increases as the remains of a frontal
boundary continues to dissipate just off the west coast of Alaska.
Much of Southwest Alaska remains on the dry side through the
evening except for coastal locations where the PABE NEXRAD is
beginning to pick up some weak returns from the remains of the
dissipated front. By midnight tonight, a very potent warm front is
expected to slam against the west coast of Alaska. This feature
brings periods of moderate to heavy rain with gusty winds. Look
for the strongest winds to be confined along the immediate coast
to locations from Cape Newenham to Toksook Bay. Winds could gust
as high as 65 mph starting this evening, and lingering through
Saturday morning across the aforementioned locations while much of
Southwest Alaska receiving wind gusts around 40 to 50 mph.

The area most likely to experience the brunt of the rapidly
developing front will be the Alaska Peninsula where wind gusts
likely reaching 70 mph with the potential for a few stronger
gusts. A strong stable layer near mountain-top level favors
mountain wave development which could bring some isolated wind
gusts close to 80 mph. A decision not to issue a high wind warning
was made due to the speed that the front is making (strongest
winds impacting any one location will likely be in the 3 to 6 hour
range), and the isolated nature of the strongest winds. However,
those located on the Alaska Peninsula, and west coast of Alaska
should still prepare for the first big storm of the storm season.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Latest scatterometer data shows a developing warm front south of
Nikolski in the North Pacific. In addition, latest observations
show an area of low pressure south of Adak quickly moving to the
northeast toward the Bering Sea. This low and the associated front
strengthens throughout the day, and winds up to 50 kts are
expected across the eastern half of the Bering Sea. The front will
be a quick mover, and should push into Southwest Alaska by
Saturday morning/afternoon. Look for this synoptic system to dump
an appreciable amount of rainfall in a relatively short period
across the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula.

As the low moves across the Bering on Saturday, the upper level
low (which will be stacked on top of the surface low by this
point) will ingest some cold air from the Arctic. This aides in
helping to mix down some gusty winds on the back side of the low.
The lower/mid levels of the atmosphere look fairy stable with
this feature as LI values of +5 to +8 will prevent mixing down of
the strongest core of winds (60 to 65 kt). It looks quite possible
a brief period of storm force winds could be seen over the Bering
Sea Saturday morning before the upper level support diminishes but
confidence in winds that strong is lacking at the moment. The low
will weaken over the weekend and rainfall amounts and wind speeds
will diminish in response. A shortwave trough will enter the far
western Bering Sea Saturday afternoon bringing another round of
rain to the Western Aleutians/Bering Sea.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
a gale force front associated with a low over the eastern Bering
brings gusty winds, and rain into the southwest Mainland through
Sunday. Immediately behind this front, a wave just south of the
AKpen will rapidly deepen as it moves into the Gulf on Sunday,
dragging the front southward into the Gulf. As a result it appears
that most of the winds, and rain from this system remains confined
to the western Gulf, and eastern Kenai Peninsula. While most of
the Southcentral, and Prince William Sound should remain mostly
dry with the exception of a some spotty rain showers. By early
Monday, the models have all trended notably deeper with the low
as it moves into the southern Gulf, allowing us to significantly
increase winds throughout the Gulf an Kodiak Island region into
Tuesday. This system will remain far enough south of the Mainland
bringing clearing skies, and offshore flow to most areas through
Tuesday. The Gulf Coast will likely see gusty outflow winds from
this system, however without a strong high pressure over the
mainland these are not expected to be significant.

By the middle of next week model agreement begins to diminish with
the details, but there is generally good confidence that a broad
trough will setup somewhere over the Bering with weak ridging over
the Mainland. This pattern brings continued active weather to the
Bering Sea, Aleutians, and possibly into the southwest Mainland.
Ridging would then bring generally quiet weather to most of the
mainland to the east of the Alaska Range.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...storm warning.None.
MARINE...storm warning...155 181.
         Gale Warning...130 131 132 136 137 138 150 160 165 170
                        171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 181
                        185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MC
LONG TERM...DEK