Gale Warning 499, NWS Anchorage, AK

432 
FZAK62 PAFC 262241
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
241 PM AKDT MON SEP 26 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-271315-
241 PM AKDT MON SEP 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 1007 MB LOW AT 55N 156W WILL MOVE WELL INTO THE GULF TUE
MORNING. A 995 MB LOW AT 56N 165E LATE TONIGHT WILL MOVE TO 64N
172W BY LATE TUE NIGHT AND WEAKEN TO 1005 MB THEN NORTH OF THE
BERING WED MORNING. A 1011 MB LOW AT 47N 176W TUE NIGHT WILL MOVE
TO 47N 179W WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-271315-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
241 PM AKDT MON SEP 26 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING 30 TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 TO 17 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING SW UP TO 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ412-271315-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
241 PM AKDT MON SEP 26 2016

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT INCREASING TO 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT.
.WED...S WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.

$$

PKZ413-271315-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
241 PM AKDT MON SEP 26 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.WED...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.

$$

PKZ414-271315-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
241 PM AKDT MON SEP 26 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.WED...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

265 
FZAK62 PAFC 271122
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
322 AM AKDT TUE SEP 27 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-280100-
322 AM AKDT TUE SEP 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A FRONT OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA PUSHES OVER THE ALASKA
PENINSULA BY WED MORNING THEN DISSIPATES. ANOTHER FRONT ENTERS
THE WESTERN BERING WED AFTERNOON AND REMAINS STATIONARY. A 994 MB
LOW AT 45N 164E MOVES TO 47N 172E AT 985 MB BY THU MORNING.


$$

PKZ411-280100-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
322 AM AKDT TUE SEP 27 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING S UP TO 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ412-280100-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
322 AM AKDT TUE SEP 27 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.
.WED...S WIND UP TO 20 KT INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$

PKZ413-280100-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
322 AM AKDT TUE SEP 27 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.

$$

PKZ414-280100-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
322 AM AKDT TUE SEP 27 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

932 
FZAK62 PAFC 272300
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT TUE SEP 27 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-281315-
300 PM AKDT TUE SEP 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN ALASKA
LATE TONIGHT. A FRONT OVER THE WESTERN BERING WED AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL BERING BY THU AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ411-281315-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
300 PM AKDT TUE SEP 27 2016

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING S 10 TO 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ412-281315-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
300 PM AKDT TUE SEP 27 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.WED...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ413-281315-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
300 PM AKDT TUE SEP 27 2016

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ414-281315-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
300 PM AKDT TUE SEP 27 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING SE 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
421 PM AKDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A short-wave trough is making it's way across the western Alaska
Range into Southcentral Alaska this morning, with a band of of
showers oriented south to north from Cook Inlet to the Susitna
Valley. The southern end of the short-wave is digging slightly
into the western Gulf leading to a slight negative tilt. Expect
this to lead to a change in orientation of the bands of showers
and lead to greater coverage of showers this afternoon from the
Western Kenai to Anchorage and the Mat Valley. More disorganized
convection continues over the northern Gulf and Prince William
Sound as weak impulses moving through the broader upper trough
in a moderately unstable air mass.

Meanwhile out west, an upper low and amplifying trough with
strengthening jet streak moving through the back side of the
trough, are tracking eastward across the Bering Sea. There is a
reflection of the low at the surface, though it is on the weak
side. A long cold front is sweeping eastward across the western
Bering Sea and Aleutians. This storm system is leading to
strengthening winds and deteriorating conditions across most
of the region.

Lastly, quiet conditions dominate Southwest Alaska as a short-wave
ridge moves overhead. The morning began with isolated areas of
fog, though most of this had eroded by mid-day.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in excellent agreement with large scale features
over the next couple days and overall forecast confidence is
high. The precip forecast over Southcentral continues to be a
challenge with varying guidance in location of showers as the
upper level short-wave continues eastward through Tonight.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...This is a very challenging precip forecast for this
afternoon through this evening. It appears most of the shower
activity will remain to the south and west right ahead of the
main trough axis, with secondary area of showers along the
mountains. If this works out ceilings will safely stay VFR.
If on the other hand, more showers move over the airport may
see some periods of MVFR ceilings. In any case, confidence
increases overnight that ceilings will gradually lift. There
may be some patchy fog toward morning, but there should be
enough mid to higher clouds remaining to prevent more widespread
problems.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Tonight will be the last gasp of the trough that has been
controlling Southcentral weather for the past week or so. The thin
line of convective showers stretching from the western Susitna
southward through the western Kenai, will continue slowly to the
east while dissipating this evening. More scattered to numerous
showers, some with small hail, will affect the inland Kenai
northward through Anchorage and the Mat-Su. This evening is the
last of the convective showers however as the trough moves into
the gulf and out of our area. A cooler air mass comes in behind
this trough, and could bring some low-lying areas down to the
freezing mark or close to it by Tuesday. A separate trough comes
in from the northwest late Monday but looks pretty dry at this
point. Winds will remain light in all areas and temperatures very
seasonable.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
The low over the northern Bering continues to track to the
southeast as it makes its way towards the eastern Bering and
eventually across the Alaska Peninsula Monday. As it passes it
will bring rain to areas near the coast in southwest Alaska with
the Kuskokwim Delta already seeing some of the rain move in.
Following the low, ridging will move in over the area from the
west and will remain until Wednesday morning when a trough pushes
in over the Kuskokwim Delta. The ridging will help in fog
formation Tuesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
The low pushing southeast through the Bering is bringing light
rain and winds to the Pribilof Islands that will continue for much
of the night and spread south over the Eastern Aleutians and
Alaska Peninsula later this evening. To the west ridging is
building in over the western Bering and it will track east and
dominate much of the Bering through the early part of the week. A
system moving into the far western Bering will push its front
through the Western Aleutians Monday night and then over the
central Bering Tuesday evening bringing more light rain to the
area.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The extended term forecast will begin on Tuesday night with
transitory upper level ridging in place over mainland Alaska,
promoting mainly dry conditions across the Southcentral region
beneath clearing skies and offshore flow. A shortwave trough
moving across the northern half of the mainland on Wednesday will
flatten out the ridge and drag a front through the southwest part
of the state, bringing a chance of rain before quickly moving off
to the east. The pattern then becomes much more amplified during
the latter half of the week as an upper level trough deepens over
eastern Russia and a high amplitude ridge builds over the mainland
from the central Pacific. This will support a continuation of the
mostly dry and clear conditions across the southern mainland
through the end of the work week, allowing overnight low
temperatures to dip near or below freezing in many locations as
conditions become optimal for radiational cooling. Meanwhile,
another shortwave rounding the base of the eastern Russia trough
will help to spin up a deep surface low moving into the Bering in
the Thursday/Friday timeframe, bringing rainy and windy conditions
to much of the Bering region. This system also looks to swing a
front over the southwest mainland Friday night and into the Gulf
of Alaska by Saturday, bringing a return of precipitation to the
forecast for Southcentral by next weekend.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SEB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MTL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...CB