Gale Warning 477, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Aug 16, 2016, 3:09 PM AKDT (23:09 UTC)

Expired

Aug 17, 2016, 3:45 AM AKDT

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

006 
FZAK51 PAFC 162309
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
309 PM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-171145-
309 PM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF DISSIPATE BY THIS
EVENING. A WEATHER FRONT WILL ENTER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF ALASKA
LATE TONIGHT AND MOVES TO THE CENTRAL GULF BY WED AFTERNOON. A
1019 MB LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT 190 NM SOUTHEAST OF OF
KODIAK CITY WED EVENING AND MOVES TO 140 NM SOUTH OF CORDOVA AT
1017 MB EARLY THU.


$$

PKZ119-171145-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
309 PM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ120-171145-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
309 PM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ121-171145-
RESURRECTION BAY-
309 PM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-171145-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
309 PM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-171145-
PORT VALDEZ-
309 PM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-171145-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
309 PM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW WIND 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-171145-
VALDEZ ARM-
309 PM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-171145-
PASSAGE CANAL-
309 PM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-171145-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
309 PM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ131-171145-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
309 PM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ132-171145-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
309 PM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...SE
WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ136-171145-
CHINIAK BAY-
309 PM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-171145-
MARMOT BAY-
309 PM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-171145-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
309 PM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ139-171145-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
309 PM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-171145-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
309 PM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-171145-
KACHEMAK BAY-
309 PM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Aug 16, 5:21 AM AKDT, 9 hours 48 minutes earlier.

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
521 AM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A weak broad upper level low across the northern Gulf continues
to weaken. To the west a more pronounced shortwave is moving south
across the Bering Sea as evident from IR satellite. A stacked low
sits just south of the Alaska Peninsula with showers affecting the
eastern Aleutians and southern peninsula region. At the surface, a
trough remains in the northern Gulf this morning with scattered
showers affecting Prince William Sound and coastal communities.
Across southwest mainland, a weak shortwave is rotating through,
bringing some showers to mainly the Kuskokwim Delta region.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The major atmospheric models are in good agreement that the slow-
moving and vertically-stacked low spinning south of the Alaska
Peninsula this morning will continue to slowly churn northeastward
toward Southcentral Alaska through this weekend. Once a warm front
pushes through the Cook Inlet area on Wednesday night the southern
mainland will fall back into a wet pattern vulnerable to embedded
shortwaves moving through the southerly/southwesterly flow. The
NAM is trying to develop one such shortwave much stronger than the
other models along the north Gulf coast Thursday...which it then
translates into a gale-force low at the surface. This seems
unrealistic at this point in time, given similar synoptic/dynamic
patterns as the other models which are not overly developing this
feature. Thus the NAM was largely excluded from forecast
generation this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The upper level low centered just south of Prince William Sound
continues to diminish in intensity as it pushes northward.
Currently the low is supporting steady showers along the north
gulf coast due to onshore upslope flow. However, across the rest
of Southcentral, relatively dry conditions are occurring in light
offshore flow. Although the low pressure system is diminishing in
intensity as it pushes inland, it is associated with sufficient
cold air aloft that afternoon convection is expected to form
across the Susitna Valley, western Copper River Basin, and Kenai
Peninsula with a few lightning strikes possible today. A warm
front will approach the Kenai peninsula by Wednesday morning, and
the Anchorage Bowl by afternoon. Perpendicular flow should be
enough to support some downsloping across the Anchorage bowl, but
will not be intense enough to prevent rainfall across much of
Southcentral.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The decaying upper low will keep unstable air over the area
through Wed, with showers and some isolated afternoon and evening
thunderstorms. A front approaching the Akpen will bring gale
force winds to marine areas south of the Akpen tonight. On Thu
remnants of the front will bring another round of precipitation to
the Southwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

As the low approaches Cold Bay it will spread rain across the
eastern Aleutians that will slowly diminish through Thu. In the
meantime, an upper low moving south will bring showers to the
central Aleutians this afternoon and tonight. A weak front will
bring rain to the western Aleutians through Thu.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The pattern moving from mid week through the end of the week is
characterized by dominant ridging over the western Bering with
weaker ridging over the eastern Gulf and a low stuck between them
near the Alaska Peninsula. This low will bring southerly flow and
rain to the southern mainland through the end of the week before
it finally pushes off to the east as the ridging over the eastern
Gulf slides to the east as well. A strong trough will then swing
down over the western part of the state from the north late in the
weekend but there is disagreement amongst the models on how to
handle this feature. However, there is decent agreement that the
trough will come sometime around the late weekend and somewhere
near the west coast meaning that impacts will likely be rain for
the southern mainland early next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gales...150 155 160 165 172 . FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...LIW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ELN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DS
LONG TERM...DK

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2016Every gale warning in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.