Gale Warning 475, NWS Anchorage, AK

129 
FZAK52 PAFC 162329
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
329 PM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-171245-
329 PM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 994 MB LOW 260 NM SOUTH OF COLD BAY WILL MOVE TO 125 NM SOUTH
OF COLD BAY AT 1004 MB WED AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFT TO 60 NM WEST OF
COLD BAY AT 1012 MB THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-171245-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
329 PM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ155-171245-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
329 PM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ160-171245-
BRISTOL BAY-
329 PM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-171245-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
329 PM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 11
FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ170-171245-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
329 PM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ171-171245-
UNALASKA BAY-
329 PM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-171245-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
329 PM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ173-171245-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
329 PM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ174-171245-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
329 PM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ175-171245-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
329 PM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ176-171245-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
329 PM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ177-171245-
ADAK TO KISKA-
329 PM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ178-171245-
KISKA TO ATTU-
329 PM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ179-171245-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
329 PM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ180-171245-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
329 PM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT...INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT S OF
CAPE NEWENHAM. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT NE 15 KT N OF CAPE NEWENHAM. SEAS 8
FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT NE 15 KT N OF CAPE NEWENHAM.
SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ181-171245-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
329 PM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ185-171245-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
329 PM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND... SW 20 KT W
OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

191 
FZAK52 PAFC 171153
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
353 AM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-180030-
353 AM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 998 MB LOW 190 NM SOUTH OF COLD BAY WILL MOVE TO NEAR COLD BAY AT
1008 MB LATE TONIGHT...THEN DRIFTS TO 80 NM NORTH OF COLD BAY AT
1016 MB THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-180030-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
353 AM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ155-180030-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
353 AM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ160-180030-
BRISTOL BAY-
353 AM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-180030-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
353 AM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ170-180030-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
353 AM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ171-180030-
UNALASKA BAY-
353 AM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-180030-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
353 AM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ173-180030-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
353 AM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ174-180030-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
353 AM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ175-180030-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
353 AM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ176-180030-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
353 AM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ177-180030-
ADAK TO KISKA-
353 AM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ178-180030-
KISKA TO ATTU-
353 AM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ179-180030-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
353 AM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ180-180030-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
353 AM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ181-180030-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
353 AM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ185-180030-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
353 AM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SW 20 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SW 20 KT W
OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
340 PM AKDT MON AUG 15 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A broad upper upper low anchored over the northwest Gulf of
Alaska is keeping relatively unstable conditions across much of
the southern mainland. Upper waves rotating around the cold upper
low will interact with already unstable conditions and give rise
to afternoon and late evening thunderstorms from the Copper River
Basin to the Southwest Alaska. Widespread showers with a weak
frontal trough are expected to continue across much of the Gulf
Coast this afternoon and evening. Generally weak (sub- Small
Craft) northerly flow with stratus, patchy fog, and
sprinkles/light rain continue across the Bering sea.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models through the short term are in good agreement and
meteorologically reasonable. This forecast cycle will use a
NAM/GFS blend in the East (Southcentral/Gulf) and a GFS blend with
official in the West (SW Alaska/Bering Sea/Aleutians).

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The upper level low centered over the Western Gulf of Alaska
continues to provide enough cold air aloft to support abundant
showers along the coast as well as isolated thunderstorms in
areas such as the Susitna Valley and western Copper River Basin
which saw a bit more solar heating today. The low will weaken as
it drifts north and fills, then dissipates along the northern
Gulf Coast Tuesday. The next frontal system will reach the far
southwestern Gulf Tuesday afternoon, spread across Kodiak Island
Tuesday night and then lift north across the Kenai Peninsula
Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The thermal trough will continue to provide a focus for
afternoon/evening thunderstorm development over portions of the
southwest mainland through Tuesday, with the greatest coverage
expected this evening along the Kilbuck Mountains and over the
eastern half of the Kuskokwim Delta. Thunderstorm coverage will
begin to diminish on Tuesday as the thermal trough weakens, with
the best chances for convective development generally confined to
northern portions of the Kuskokwim Valley and Delta. A North
Pacific front will push northward into Bristol Bay late Tuesday
night and spread steadier rain over the area through Wednesday as
the front moves inland and weakens.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The disturbance that impacted the Central Aleutians yesterday is
currently intensifying over the North Pacific with the help a 100
kt jet streak rounding the base of the longwave trough in place
over the region. This system will become the main feature of
interest over the Bering for the next several days as it curves
northward towards the Alaska Peninsula on Tuesday accompanied by
steady rain and a gale force front. This will keep gusty winds and
showery conditions over the southeast Bering through Wednesday as
the low center weakens near Cold Bay. Elsewhere, a weaker and
more compact upper level wave will drop through the central Bering
tonight into Tuesday, bringing a chance of rain to the Central
Aleutians on Tuesday. A weak frontal boundary will clip the
western tip of the Aleutians for the next several days, but will
struggle to make eastward progress with high pressure in place
over the western half of the Bering.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The pattern moving from mid week through the end of the week is
characterized by dominant ridging over the western Bering with
weaker ridging over the eastern Gulf and a low stuck between them
near the Alaska Peninsula. This low will bring southerly flow and
rain to the southern mainland through the end of the week before
it finally pushes off to the east as the ridging over the eastern
Gulf slides to the east as well. A strong trough will then swing
down over the western part of the state from the north late in the
weekend but there is disagreement amongst the models on how to
handle this feature. However, there is decent agreement that the
trough will come sometime around the late weekend and somewhere
near the west coast meaning that impacts will likely be rain for
the southern mainland early next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 132 150 155 165.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
LONG TERM...DK