Gale Warning 476, NWS Anchorage, AK

006 
FZAK51 PAFC 162309
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
309 PM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-171145-
309 PM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF DISSIPATE BY THIS
EVENING. A WEATHER FRONT WILL ENTER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF ALASKA
LATE TONIGHT AND MOVES TO THE CENTRAL GULF BY WED AFTERNOON. A
1019 MB LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT 190 NM SOUTHEAST OF OF
KODIAK CITY WED EVENING AND MOVES TO 140 NM SOUTH OF CORDOVA AT
1017 MB EARLY THU.


$$

PKZ119-171145-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
309 PM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ120-171145-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
309 PM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ121-171145-
RESURRECTION BAY-
309 PM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-171145-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
309 PM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-171145-
PORT VALDEZ-
309 PM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-171145-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
309 PM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW WIND 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-171145-
VALDEZ ARM-
309 PM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-171145-
PASSAGE CANAL-
309 PM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-171145-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
309 PM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ131-171145-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
309 PM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ132-171145-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
309 PM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...SE
WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ136-171145-
CHINIAK BAY-
309 PM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-171145-
MARMOT BAY-
309 PM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-171145-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
309 PM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ139-171145-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
309 PM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-171145-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
309 PM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-171145-
KACHEMAK BAY-
309 PM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
340 PM AKDT MON AUG 15 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A broad upper upper low anchored over the northwest Gulf of
Alaska is keeping relatively unstable conditions across much of
the southern mainland. Upper waves rotating around the cold upper
low will interact with already unstable conditions and give rise
to afternoon and late evening thunderstorms from the Copper River
Basin to the Southwest Alaska. Widespread showers with a weak
frontal trough are expected to continue across much of the Gulf
Coast this afternoon and evening. Generally weak (sub- Small
Craft) northerly flow with stratus, patchy fog, and
sprinkles/light rain continue across the Bering sea.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models through the short term are in good agreement and
meteorologically reasonable. This forecast cycle will use a
NAM/GFS blend in the East (Southcentral/Gulf) and a GFS blend with
official in the West (SW Alaska/Bering Sea/Aleutians).

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The upper level low centered over the Western Gulf of Alaska
continues to provide enough cold air aloft to support abundant
showers along the coast as well as isolated thunderstorms in
areas such as the Susitna Valley and western Copper River Basin
which saw a bit more solar heating today. The low will weaken as
it drifts north and fills, then dissipates along the northern
Gulf Coast Tuesday. The next frontal system will reach the far
southwestern Gulf Tuesday afternoon, spread across Kodiak Island
Tuesday night and then lift north across the Kenai Peninsula
Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The thermal trough will continue to provide a focus for
afternoon/evening thunderstorm development over portions of the
southwest mainland through Tuesday, with the greatest coverage
expected this evening along the Kilbuck Mountains and over the
eastern half of the Kuskokwim Delta. Thunderstorm coverage will
begin to diminish on Tuesday as the thermal trough weakens, with
the best chances for convective development generally confined to
northern portions of the Kuskokwim Valley and Delta. A North
Pacific front will push northward into Bristol Bay late Tuesday
night and spread steadier rain over the area through Wednesday as
the front moves inland and weakens.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The disturbance that impacted the Central Aleutians yesterday is
currently intensifying over the North Pacific with the help a 100
kt jet streak rounding the base of the longwave trough in place
over the region. This system will become the main feature of
interest over the Bering for the next several days as it curves
northward towards the Alaska Peninsula on Tuesday accompanied by
steady rain and a gale force front. This will keep gusty winds and
showery conditions over the southeast Bering through Wednesday as
the low center weakens near Cold Bay. Elsewhere, a weaker and
more compact upper level wave will drop through the central Bering
tonight into Tuesday, bringing a chance of rain to the Central
Aleutians on Tuesday. A weak frontal boundary will clip the
western tip of the Aleutians for the next several days, but will
struggle to make eastward progress with high pressure in place
over the western half of the Bering.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The pattern moving from mid week through the end of the week is
characterized by dominant ridging over the western Bering with
weaker ridging over the eastern Gulf and a low stuck between them
near the Alaska Peninsula. This low will bring southerly flow and
rain to the southern mainland through the end of the week before
it finally pushes off to the east as the ridging over the eastern
Gulf slides to the east as well. A strong trough will then swing
down over the western part of the state from the north late in the
weekend but there is disagreement amongst the models on how to
handle this feature. However, there is decent agreement that the
trough will come sometime around the late weekend and somewhere
near the west coast meaning that impacts will likely be rain for
the southern mainland early next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 132 150 155 165.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
LONG TERM...DK