Gale Warning 427, NWS Anchorage, AK

903 
FZAK62 PAFC 062339
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
339 PM AKDT MON JUN 6 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-071400-
339 PM AKDT MON JUN 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 996 MB LOW NEAR 46N 172E WILL MOVE TO 50N 174E AT 993 MB BY TUE
AFTERNOON...AND REMAIN MOSTLY STATIONARY NEAR THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON. A 1009 MB LOW WILL FORM NEAR 45N 170W WED MORNING THEN
TRACK TO 52N 165W AT 1005 MB BY WED NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-071400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
339 PM AKDT MON JUN 6 2016

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ412-071400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
339 PM AKDT MON JUN 6 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.

$$

PKZ413-071400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
339 PM AKDT MON JUN 6 2016

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT INCREASING TO 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.

$$

PKZ414-071400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
339 PM AKDT MON JUN 6 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 15 KT...EXCEPT E 10 TO 15 KT S OF 56N. 
SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 TO 15 KT...EXCEPT E 10 TO 20 KT S OF THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...SE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

299 
FZAK62 PAFC 071142
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
342 AM AKDT TUE JUN 7 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-080130-
342 AM AKDT TUE JUN 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 994 MB LOW NEAR 48N 173E MOVES TO 50N 173E AT 992 MB LATE
TONIGHT...THEN MOVES TO 49N 178E AT 998 MB LATE WED NIGHT. A 1004
MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO 54N 166W LATE WED NIGHT. A FRONT
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN BERING WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-080130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
342 AM AKDT TUE JUN 7 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ412-080130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
342 AM AKDT TUE JUN 7 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ413-080130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
342 AM AKDT TUE JUN 7 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.

$$

PKZ414-080130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
342 AM AKDT TUE JUN 7 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
417 PM AKDT SUN JUN 5 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The upper level ridging that was the dominant feature over the
state has given way to several upper level lows that are currently
affecting Alaskan weather today. The strongest features is a low
north of the Arctic that's bringing down a strong trough through
the interior today and will be moving into the Anchorage forecast
area tonight and tomorrow. Meanwhile, a second upper level low is
over the Gulf of Alaska. This low is providing the upper level
support for a surface low currently in the eastern Gulf of
Alaska, which is expected to move onshore near Yakutat and
minimally affect the Anchorage area. Out west a third upper level
low is supporting a surface low and accompanying front through
the Aleutians. The end result is that much of the state is in a
general instability pattern between these three features and satellite
indicates a lot of convection over the land today, while in the
Bering the cooler marine layer has formed a broad area of low
stratus and fog.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in good agreement on the movement of the trough through
the central interior and confidence is high for the resulting
forecast both west of the AK range and in Southcentral. In the
Aleutians, GFS and EC are in fairly good agreement on the trough
moving through, but the NAM is an outlier and was not included in
the forecast. As usual the models are not handling the fog and low
stratus in the Bering very well and confidence is lower on these
areas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The arrival of the trough from the north will bring wetting rains
for the Kuskokwim Valley, the Matanuska and Susitna Valleys and
Anchorage. The upper levels are pretty dynamic and thunderstorm
activity along the front west of the Alaska range should be pretty
active tomorrow, including some areas of scattered storms along
the AK Range. However, this should include a wetting rain. Winds
may be fairly gusty in Southcentral but the southerly direction
will keep moisture levels high. The area most at risk for fire
weather will be the interior portions of the Copper River Basin,
which shouldn't see much rainfall as they are between systems.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
As a stout upper trough digs southward from the Arctic across the
Southern Mainland, energy will rotate northward on the front side
up Cook Inlet and the Susitna Valley. The lee-side trough that
developed over Cook Inlet today will persist under the continued
westerly flow out ahead of the trough, keeping strong southerly
flow over the Cook Inlet area through this evening. Upslope flow
will contribute to what already looks like a widespread wetting
rain event for the Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage, and Matanuska and
Susitna Valleys overnight tonight through Monday. The upper low over
the northern Gulf will help pull some of the energy westward into
the Copper River Basin, likely producing areas of steady rain after
midnight.

As the trough continues to dig southward on Monday, a surface
ridge will begin to build westward over-top of it from the
northern Gulf inland across Southcentral. This will lead to
increasing southeast flow which will likely cause rainfall to
lighten in Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley. This will also
lead to an increase in instability over the Talkeetna mountains
and western portion of the Copper River Basin, which increases the
chances of isolated thunderstorms forming over the mountains
during the afternoon/evening hours Monday and Tuesday. In any
case, rain will transition to showers and gradually diminish
Monday night into Tuesday as the upper trough/low drops into the
southern Gulf.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Scattered to numerous showers with a few lightning strikes will
continue into the evening under relatively weak instability. A
potent Arctic trough dropping south through Southwest and begin
to enhance ongoing convection around the Kuskokwim Valley
resulting in a widespread area of rain with embedded convection.
This upper level low and associated frontal boundary drops south
through Bristol Bay Monday morning. Very dry air moving into the
mid-levels during the day Monday will combine with leftover low-
level residual moisture will result in relatively high instability
Monday afternoon and evening, especially from the western Alaska
Range south through eastern Bristol Bay. This is expected to
result in scattered thunderstorms across this area that could
persist well into the night with gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and
small hail all potential threats. The Kuskokwim Delta will stay
dry Monday into Tuesday as a very dry air mass settles in. This
dry air mass will extend south and east but remain west of the
Alaska and Aleutian Ranges Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

Areas of fog over Bering Sea will be the main weather concern as
the previous frontal boundary continues to fall apart. Expect the
visibility to be reduced most between Saint Matthew Island,
Nunivak Island, and the Pribilofs. The weakening front/low will
slide from the Central Aleutians through the Eastern Aleutians by
late tonight bringing spotty rain before exiting. The next major
feature to impact the area will be a minimum gale-force front
over the Western/Central Aleutians late Monday night which will
pivot into the southwestern Bering Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Models, especially the EC and Canadian hemispheric, are in
agreement that Day 3, Tue night through Wed, will be dominated by
a large low over the western Aleutians, an associated front
swinging across the Bering, and a triple point low near Cold Bay.
High pressure will build westward over mainland AK. This pattern
will bring at least Small Craft winds to the Aleutians, lingering
evening thunderstorms Tue evening west of the AK and Aleutian
ranges, and some afternoon and evening showers over the rest of
the mainland.

These same models retain some consistency through Fri night as
they slowly bring the Aleutian low and associated fronts and
triple point to the AK Peninsula and western bering respectively.
From this point to the end of the forecast the operational models
diverge and WPC uses a heavy blend of EC ensemble in its solution.
This continues to bring the low across Kodiak island Sat night
and into the Gulf on Sun as the fronts occlude along the north
Gulf coast. High pressure builds over the Bering over the weekend.
The forecast utilizes the EC through Fri night and then WPC
through the weekend.

Rain and showers across the Bering and Aleutians will taper off by
the weekend beneath high pressure, while some afternoon and
evening showers persist over the mainland through the weekend,
with steadier precipitation along the Gulf coast.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warnings 176 177.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...LF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CC
LONG TERM...DS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
130 AM AKDT MON JUN 6 2016

AKZ101-111-121-145-070615-
ANCHORAGE-MATANUSKA VALLEY-WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA-SUSITNA VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANCHORAGE...EAGLE RIVER...INDIAN...
EKLUTNA...PALMER...WASILLA...SUTTON...CHICKALOON...KENAI...
SOLDOTNA...HOMER...COOPER LANDING...TALKEETNA...WILLOW...CANTWELL
130 AM AKDT MON JUN 6 2016

...THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT COOK INLET WATERS TODAY...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR MARINERS IN COOK INLET THROUGH
THE BARREN ISLANDS AND KACHEMAK BAY TODAY. STORMS WILL INITIATE
OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE ALASKA RANGE AND WILL MOVE OVER THE
COOK INLET WATERS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 1PM AND 7PM. MARINERS
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TODAY INCLUDING STRONG
AND ERRATIC WINDS...LIGHTNING...AND HIGH SEAS.

PLEASE STAY ON TOP OF THE LATEST WEATHER FORECASTS BY VISITING
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ANCHORAGE.