Gale Warning 428, NWS Anchorage, AK

299 
FZAK62 PAFC 071142
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
342 AM AKDT TUE JUN 7 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-080130-
342 AM AKDT TUE JUN 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 994 MB LOW NEAR 48N 173E MOVES TO 50N 173E AT 992 MB LATE
TONIGHT...THEN MOVES TO 49N 178E AT 998 MB LATE WED NIGHT. A 1004
MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO 54N 166W LATE WED NIGHT. A FRONT
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN BERING WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-080130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
342 AM AKDT TUE JUN 7 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ412-080130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
342 AM AKDT TUE JUN 7 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ413-080130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
342 AM AKDT TUE JUN 7 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.

$$

PKZ414-080130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
342 AM AKDT TUE JUN 7 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
502 AM AKDT MON JUN 6 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A rather stout arctic trough is digging south along the Alaska
Range this morning. A powerful leading edge potential vorticity
anomaly can be seen on water vapor satellite imagery diving into
the Lower Kuskokwim Valley. A line of rather intense thunderstorms
formed across the Upper Kuskokwim Valley and, although weakened,
are still continuing as they push south into the Lower Kuskokwim
Valley behind the dry airstream. Over the eastern Gulf, a
shortwave trough and associated warm conveyor belt (as seen on
water vapor satellite) is tracking north right along the ALCAN
border. West of the digging arctic trough is a stout blocking high
centered over Eastern Siberia and the central Bering with a large
sprawling low centered just west of the Western Aleutians.
Stratiform rain is already pushing south through the Susitna
Valley into the Matanuska Valley and Anchorage, and will continue
south through the day. This dynamic shortwave trough represents a
rather substantial change in pattern, and will likely result in
one of the more widespread wetting rain events across Southcentral
in a while.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The models are in excellent agreement with the synoptic scale
pattern through the end of this week. They are also in much better
agreement with the powerful arctic trough currently digging into
southern Alaska. There are no discrepancies worth noting. Forecast
confidence is very high.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The big story for today will be widespread wetting rains along
with good potential for thunderstorms from the Susitna Valley
southward to Cook Inlet, Western Kenai Peninsula, and possibly
Shelikof Strait and Kodiak Island. The culprit for this weather
is a very impressive and very cold upper level trough digging
southward along the Western Alaska Range early this morning.
Light to moderate rain out ahead of this will overspread the
western half of Southcentral during the morning hours, with
showers for areas further east. As the trough continues southward
a surface ridge will build westward from Prince William Sound to
the Kenai Peninsula and Anchorage leading to increased southeast
flow, especially through Turnagain Arm. This will set up a low
level convergence zone over the Western Kenai and Northern Cook
Inlet which likely will create locally heavier rainfall. Rainfall
amounts area-wide are expected to average one third to one half
inch, the most significant rainfall event in quite some time.

The notable change from the previous forecast is that this trough
is now expected to swing eastward into southern Cook Inlet this
afternoon and evening. This will push the zone of steady rain
eastward toward Prince William Sound while dry and very cold air
aloft moves over Cook Inlet. This creates a favorable environment
for thunderstorms, which will likely contain strong gusty winds,
heavy rain, and small hail. Issued a special weather statement and
marine weather statement to highlight the threat, especially for
mariners on Cook Inlet. As the trough continues to dig southward
this evening an upper level low will form and track directly over
Kodiak Island. Thus, have introduced a slight chance of
thunderstorms for Shelikof Strait and Kodiak Island.

This storm system will exit across the Gulf of Alaska Tuesday so
expect drying and warming to ensue. There will still be enough
instability for diurnal showers Tuesday afternoon and evening,
mainly along the mountains. However, with an upper ridge starting
to build in during the afternoon and evening expect most activity
will be confined along the mountains and will quickly dissipate
Tuesday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The focus for the forecast today will be chances for thunderstorms
from the Alaska Range southward through the Aleutian Range. The
potent upper level trough is keeping lightning going overnight
across the Alaska Range and will continue to drop southward.
During peak heating today the Alaska Range and the northern
portion of the Aleutian Range will sit under the cold pool of the
upper trough, which will be the focus for afternoon/evening
thunderstorms. Most of this activity will be along the mountains
in the afternoon, though some showers are possible in the morning
east of Dillingham. The trough exits on Tuesday leaving a chance
for showers and thunderstorms along the Alaska Range again, though
a lesser chance than today. Behind the front/trough today the
airmass is quite dry, so expect clear skies for the Kuskokwim
Delta and western portions of the Kuskokwim Valley and Bristol
Bay. Ridging aloft builds overhead on Wednesday bringing back
warmer temperatures and dry conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Areas of low clouds and fog encompass a large portion of the
Bering Sea today. These conditions will hold for the forecast
period save for some drier air coming off the mainland. A gale
force front is approaching the Central Aleutians, and will
overspread the area by midnight tonight. The low pressure system
will affect the Western Aleutians on Wednesday while the front to
the east weakens. The eastern Bering will see generally light
winds.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Beginning Wednesday night, a very large low will be over the
western bering with the associated front over the eastern Bering.
Across Southcentral, transitory ridging and weak offshore flow
will promote strong stability and largely dry conditions with
temperatures quickly moving above average. The front will move
east toward southwest Alaska by Friday, but Southcentral will
remain under the influence of high pressure aloft with a few
isolated mountain showers but otherwise warm and dry conditions.
This general pattern will last through Friday before the low over
the Bering moves east into the Gulf of Alaska. This will allow
for increasing chances for afternoon and evening showers,
especially along the mountains.

Rain and showers across the Bering and Aleutians will taper off
by the weekend beneath weak high pressure, while some afternoon
and evening showers persist over the mainland through the weekend,
with steadier precipitation along the Gulf coast.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale 175-177.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...Ahsenmacher
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MTL
LONG TERM...DS/Ahsenmacher

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
115 PM AKDT MON JUN 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0114 PM     HEAVY RAIN       ANCHORAGE               61.22N 149.87W
06/06/2016  M0.89 INCH                          AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            0.89 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS FALLEN AT TED STEVENS
            INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AS OF 1 PM WHICH IS A NEW DAILY
            RECORD. 0.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS FALLEN AT THE NWS
            OFFICE ON SAND LAKE AS OF 1 PM.

&&

MCLAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
146 PM AKDT MON JUN 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     FLOOD            2 N ANCHORAGE           61.24N 149.87W
06/06/2016                                      AK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MUNICIPALITY OF ANCHORAGE REPORTS TURNAGAIN BLVD BETWEEN
            SPENARD ROAD AND BORLAND DRIVE INTERSECTION IS CLOSED DUE
            TO FLOODING.

&&

MCLAY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
316 PM AKDT MON JUN 6 2016

AKZ161-070300-
BRISTOL BAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KING SALMON...DILLINGHAM...NAKNEK...
PILOT POINT
316 PM AKDT MON JUN 6 2016

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT PARTS OF THE BRISTOL BAY AND LAKE
AND PENINSULA BOROUGHS THROUGH THIS EVENING...

RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO SEEK SHELTER THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND GUSTY WINDS IMPACT AREAS
FROM NEAR KING SALMON NORTH AND EAST TO ILIAMNA THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING.

A FEW OF THE COMMUNITIES THAT MAY BE IMPACTED BY THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE KING SALMON...NAKNEK...IGUIGIG...ILIAMNA...AND
PORT ALSWORTH.