Gale Warning 399, NWS Anchorage, AK

921 
FZAK52 PAFC 060045 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
445 PM AKDT THU MAY 5 2016

UPDATED SYNOPSIS

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-061315-
445 PM AKDT THU MAY 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 986 MB LOW CENTERED 170 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAND POINT MOVES INTO
THE GULF OF ALASKA BY FRI AFTERNOON AS A 1000 MB LOW. A FRONT OVER
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS
BY FRI AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED 990 MB LOW 440 NM NORTHWEST OF
SHEMYA MOVES TO 310 NM NORTH OF SHEMYA AT 998 MB SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-061315-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
445 PM AKDT THU MAY 5 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ155-061315-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
445 PM AKDT THU MAY 5 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT EXCEPT N 20 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS
E. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ160-061315-
BRISTOL BAY-
445 PM AKDT THU MAY 5 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ165-061315-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
445 PM AKDT THU MAY 5 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
PORT MOLLER E...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ170-061315-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
445 PM AKDT THU MAY 5 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ171-061315-
UNALASKA BAY-
445 PM AKDT THU MAY 5 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS
10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-061315-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
445 PM AKDT THU MAY 5 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ173-061315-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
445 PM AKDT THU MAY 5 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ174-061315-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
445 PM AKDT THU MAY 5 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ175-061315-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
445 PM AKDT THU MAY 5 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ176-061315-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
445 PM AKDT THU MAY 5 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ177-061315-
ADAK TO KISKA-
445 PM AKDT THU MAY 5 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ178-061315-
KISKA TO ATTU-
445 PM AKDT THU MAY 5 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ179-061315-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
445 PM AKDT THU MAY 5 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ180-061315-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
445 PM AKDT THU MAY 5 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ181-061315-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
445 PM AKDT THU MAY 5 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ185-061315-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
445 PM AKDT THU MAY 5 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NW WIND 20 KT. W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE 25 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.

$$

469 
FZAK52 PAFC 061153
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
353 AM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-070100-
353 AM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...A 990 MB LOW 250 NM
SOUTHEAST OF CHIGNIK MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA FRI AFTERNOON.
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT CURVES AROUND KODIAK ISLAND AND INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA. A 985 MB LOW 430 NM NORTHWEST OF ATTU
MOVES TO 410 NM NORTH OF SHEMYA SUN MORNING AT 1000 MB. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT PUSHES OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS THROUGH
SUN MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-070100-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
353 AM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ155-070100-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
353 AM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES
THROUGH THE MORNING. SEAS 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ160-070100-
BRISTOL BAY-
353 AM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ165-070100-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
353 AM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
PORT MOLLER E...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ170-070100-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
353 AM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ171-070100-
UNALASKA BAY-
353 AM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 7 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-070100-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
353 AM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ173-070100-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
353 AM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ174-070100-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
353 AM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ175-070100-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
353 AM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ176-070100-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
353 AM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 13 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ177-070100-
ADAK TO KISKA-
353 AM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ178-070100-
KISKA TO ATTU-
353 AM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ179-070100-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
353 AM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ180-070100-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
353 AM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ181-070100-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
353 AM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ185-070100-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
353 AM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE 25 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. PATCHY
FOG. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.

$$

579 
FZAK52 PAFC 062323
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
323 PM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-071245-
323 PM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 986 MB LOW 410 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA MOVES TO 300 NM NORTHEAST
OF SHEMYA SUN AFTERNOON AT 996 MB...THEN DRIFTS TO 380 NM NORTH OF
SHEMYA AT 990 MB SUN AFTERNOON. A FRONT ENTERS THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-071245-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
323 PM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ155-071245-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
323 PM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ160-071245-
BRISTOL BAY-
323 PM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ165-071245-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
323 PM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
PORT MOLLER E...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ170-071245-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
323 PM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ171-071245-
UNALASKA BAY-
323 PM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT BY LATE EVENING. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-071245-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
323 PM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ173-071245-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
323 PM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ174-071245-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
323 PM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ175-071245-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
323 PM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ176-071245-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
323 PM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ177-071245-
ADAK TO KISKA-
323 PM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ178-071245-
KISKA TO ATTU-
323 PM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ179-071245-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
323 PM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ180-071245-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
323 PM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ181-071245-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
323 PM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ185-071245-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
323 PM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. PATCHY
FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
447 AM AKDT THU MAY 5 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

AN ACTIVE PACIFIC JET STREAM PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT
MODE ACROSS THE ALASKA REGION AS ANOTHER HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH
OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC IS POISED TO SEND MORE JET ENERGY AND AN
ASSOCIATED GALE FORCE FRONT INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS
PHOTOGENIC TROUGH (ON SATELLITE) CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED WARM CONVEYOR BELT
ADVECTING WARMER AIR AND PACIFIC MOISTURE TOWARD THE GULF OF
ALASKA. ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IS THE LEFTOVER REMNANTS OF
A SHEARING OUT AND WEAKENING LOW. EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE
SURFACE STRETCH ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND...WITH SOME OF THESE WINDS TRACKING DOWN TURNAGAIN ARM INTO
SOUTH ANCHORAGE. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN SIBERIA
ASSOCIATED WITH A DETACHED POLAR JET CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE MOVING SOUTH INTO THE BERING. THIS IS ENHANCING COLDER
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE BERING...WHICH WILL INCREASE AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC LOW MOVES NORTHWARD.

LOCALLY...DIURNAL RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
THE LAST EVENING HAVE RAPIDLY WEAKENED...WHICH WILL KEEP THE
REMAINDER OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF COAST AND ALONG THE
BRISTOL BAY COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WEAKENING LOW/FRONT.
MORNING FIG ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA HAS ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOPED...AND WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. PRECIPITATION
WILL INCREASE AGAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALONG WITH INCREASING EAST
TO NORTHEAST WINDS...AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF AND A
SECONDARY LOW FORMS ACROSS BRISTOL BAY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE AND
MESOSCALE PATTERN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE 00Z NAM...WHICH HAS A
LOW TRACK NOT CLUSTERED WITH THE REMAINING GUIDANCE...AND WHICH
DOES NOT MAKE ANY PARTICULAR SENSE. IT WAS DISCARDED AS A
RESULT...WHICH KEEPS FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH REGARDING THE
GENERAL IMPACTS OF THE LOW MOVING TOWARD THE GULF AND A LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE BERING THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A STRONG GALE-FORCE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF
THIS MORNING...AND WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
AND INNER WATERS AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BRING
WIDESPREAD GALE-FORCE WINDS TO THESE MARINE AREAS AND WIDESPREAD
RAIN.

DOWN-INLET FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY TODAY. GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EAST-WEST GAPS...BUT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG
AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS DUE TO THE LESS FAVORABLE SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE
ORIENTATION. THIS MEANS ANCHORAGE WILL LARGELY MISS OUT TODAY ON
THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS DAILY OCCURRENCE OF SOUTHEAST WINDS OUT OF
TURNAGAIN ARM. WHILE WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR COASTAL
LOCATIONS THE NEXT FEW PERIODS...THE PRIMARY QUESTION IS HOW MUCH
RAIN MAKES IT OVER THE TYPICALLY RAIN-SHADOWED AREAS OF THE
MATANUSKA VALLEY...ANCHORAGE...AND NORTHERN KENAI...WHERE THERE
HAS BEEN A NOTABLE LACK OF RAIN FOR QUITE SOME TIME AND FOR WHERE
A CONSIDERABLE RISK OF WILDFIRES PERSISTS. THE CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ENABLE FOR SPILLOVER
INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THESE AREAS BEGINNING
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
SOME VERY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN MANY LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...WETTING
RAINS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THESE AREAS.

BY FRIDAY...A WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY...MEANING THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING
THE DAY INTO THE THE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE KENAI
PENINSULA. THE SYSTEM FINALLY EXITS TO THE EASTERN GULF SATURDAY
BRINGING A BRIEF CLEARING TREND GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST UNDER
A TRANSITORY RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE THERMAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE POSITIONED OVER THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA EXTENDING INTO THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TODAY. THIS
SYNOPTIC FEATURE COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL KICK-OFF SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
IN THE BRISTOL BAY REGION LOOK FOR THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE LOCATED MAINLY OVER THE AHKLUN MOUNTAINS. AS A WEATHER FRONT
TRACKS THROUGH THE BRISTOL BAY THIS AFTERNOON THE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL STRENGTHEN RESULTING IN GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
AND GAP WINDS ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE. WHILE THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND THE ALEUTIAN RANGE WILL RECEIVE THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT MOVES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF INTO
THE BRISTOL BAY REGION THIS AFTERNOON. BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA REGION AND A WEAK LOW
FORMS IN THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. THE OTHER CONCERN THIS
MORNING WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG ACCOMPANIED BY LOW STRATUS
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTLINE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED AREAS OF DENSE FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DROPS DOWN OFF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER
FRONT ENTERING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING A SWATH OF MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIED
BY GALE FORCE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. WHILE THE EASTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS
WILL HAVE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS DUE TO
BEING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW POSITIONED NEAR
THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS. IN THE NORTHERN BERING SEA THE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE NORTHERLY WITH LOW STRATUS AND FOG AS WE HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

BEGINNING THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON SUNDAY MORNING...A WEAKENING
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING WILL BE MOVING INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL...REPLACING A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS AND BRINGING AN
END TO SUNNIER AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA. OVER THE
BERING...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE FORMING IN THE VICINITY OF
KAMCHATKA THEN QUICKLY MOVE EAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL BERING THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS PATTERN OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 500 HPA WILL BRING
MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES TO MOST OF SOUTHERN ALASKA
(ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST ALASKA...WITH SOUTHCENTRAL REMAINING
SLIGHTLY DRIER) THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS (AFTER WEEKS OF WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES).

VARIOUS MEMBERS OF THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS
(ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF) CONTINUE TO TRY AND DEPICT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A LARGE BLOCKING HIGH SOMEWHERE OVER OR NEAR ALASKA...BUT THAT
DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO BE DELAYED AS THE ACTIVE NORTH PACIFIC
JET STREAM/TROUGH PATTERN REMAINS MUCH MORE DOMINANT. ANY
POTENTIAL HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN WOULD NOT MANIFEST
ITSELF UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK OR WEEKEND...AND EVEN THAT
SCENARIO IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME AS THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
STRUGGLE (WHICH IS OFTEN THE CASE AT THIS TIME FRAME) WITH WHERE
AND HOW QUICKLY THE HIGHER LATITUDE BLOCK FORMS.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119 120 125 130-132 136-138 150 155 172 174 178 351.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AHSENMACHER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...AHSENMACHER