Gale Warning 400, NWS Anchorage, AK

261 
FZAK51 PAFC 060136 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
536 PM AKDT THU MAY 5 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-061430-
536 PM AKDT THU MAY 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA MOVES INLAND LATE
TONIGHT. A 986 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW ENTERS THE GULF OF ALASKA 210
NM SOUTH OF SITKINAK FRI MORNING AND MOVES TO 130 NM SOUTHWEST OF
YAKUTAT SAT MORNING AT 1005 MB...THEN MOVES INLAND 130 NM
SOUTHEAST OF YAKUTAT SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-061430-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
536 PM AKDT THU MAY 5 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ120-061430-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
536 PM AKDT THU MAY 5 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO S WIND 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ121-061430-
RESURRECTION BAY-
536 PM AKDT THU MAY 5 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER
SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-061430-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
536 PM AKDT THU MAY 5 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR THE HINCHINBROOK
ENTRANCE IN THE EVENING. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-061430-
PORT VALDEZ-
536 PM AKDT THU MAY 5 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-061430-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
536 PM AKDT THU MAY 5 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-061430-
VALDEZ ARM-
536 PM AKDT THU MAY 5 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-061430-
PASSAGE CANAL-
536 PM AKDT THU MAY 5 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-061430-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
536 PM AKDT THU MAY 5 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ131-061430-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
536 PM AKDT THU MAY 5 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-061430-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
536 PM AKDT THU MAY 5 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ136-061430-
CHINIAK BAY-
536 PM AKDT THU MAY 5 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ137-061430-
MARMOT BAY-
536 PM AKDT THU MAY 5 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-061430-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
536 PM AKDT THU MAY 5 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING. RAIN. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-061430-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
536 PM AKDT THU MAY 5 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ140-061430-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
536 PM AKDT THU MAY 5 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-061430-
KACHEMAK BAY-
536 PM AKDT THU MAY 5 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

963 
FZAK51 PAFC 061147
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
347 AM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-070100-
347 AM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A FRONT ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST DISSIPATES LATER THIS MORNING.
A 996 MB LOW ENTERS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF ALASKA FRIDAY MIDDAY
AND MOVES TO 100 NM WEST OF SITKA BY SAT AFTERNOON AT 1009 MB
BEFORE DISSIPATING SUN MORNING.

$$

PKZ119-070100-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
347 AM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT SE 25 KT IN THE MORNING ALONG 
THE COAST. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT EARLY MORNING BECOMING W 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ120-070100-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
347 AM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING DIMINISHING TO 10 KT. 
SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ121-070100-
RESURRECTION BAY-
347 AM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S 
OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S
OF CAINES HEAD.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-070100-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
347 AM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT EARLY THIS MORNING DIMINISHING TO 15 KT.
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-070100-
PORT VALDEZ-
347 AM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10
KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-070100-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
347 AM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING N. SEAS 2
FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING N 15 KT.
SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-070100-
VALDEZ ARM-
347 AM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-070100-
PASSAGE CANAL-
347 AM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN 
SHOWERS.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-070100-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
347 AM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT EARLY IN THE MORNING DIMINISHING SE 15 KT
LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ131-070100-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
347 AM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING N. NEAR THE
BARREN ISLANDS...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING SE. SEAS 
10 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-070100-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
347 AM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT...EXCEPT BECOMING NW WIND 15 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT S OF DANGEROUS CAPE. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ136-070100-
CHINIAK BAY-
347 AM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT EARLY BECOMING E 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ137-070100-
MARMOT BAY-
347 AM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT EARLY DIMINISHING TO 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-070100-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
347 AM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT EARLY BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-070100-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
347 AM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT EARLY BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING.
.TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ140-070100-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
347 AM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT EARLY DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 10 KT IN 
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-070100-
KACHEMAK BAY-
347 AM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
447 AM AKDT THU MAY 5 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

AN ACTIVE PACIFIC JET STREAM PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT
MODE ACROSS THE ALASKA REGION AS ANOTHER HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH
OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC IS POISED TO SEND MORE JET ENERGY AND AN
ASSOCIATED GALE FORCE FRONT INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS
PHOTOGENIC TROUGH (ON SATELLITE) CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED WARM CONVEYOR BELT
ADVECTING WARMER AIR AND PACIFIC MOISTURE TOWARD THE GULF OF
ALASKA. ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IS THE LEFTOVER REMNANTS OF
A SHEARING OUT AND WEAKENING LOW. EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE
SURFACE STRETCH ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND...WITH SOME OF THESE WINDS TRACKING DOWN TURNAGAIN ARM INTO
SOUTH ANCHORAGE. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN SIBERIA
ASSOCIATED WITH A DETACHED POLAR JET CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE MOVING SOUTH INTO THE BERING. THIS IS ENHANCING COLDER
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE BERING...WHICH WILL INCREASE AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC LOW MOVES NORTHWARD.

LOCALLY...DIURNAL RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
THE LAST EVENING HAVE RAPIDLY WEAKENED...WHICH WILL KEEP THE
REMAINDER OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF COAST AND ALONG THE
BRISTOL BAY COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WEAKENING LOW/FRONT.
MORNING FIG ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA HAS ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOPED...AND WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. PRECIPITATION
WILL INCREASE AGAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALONG WITH INCREASING EAST
TO NORTHEAST WINDS...AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF AND A
SECONDARY LOW FORMS ACROSS BRISTOL BAY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE AND
MESOSCALE PATTERN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE 00Z NAM...WHICH HAS A
LOW TRACK NOT CLUSTERED WITH THE REMAINING GUIDANCE...AND WHICH
DOES NOT MAKE ANY PARTICULAR SENSE. IT WAS DISCARDED AS A
RESULT...WHICH KEEPS FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH REGARDING THE
GENERAL IMPACTS OF THE LOW MOVING TOWARD THE GULF AND A LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE BERING THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A STRONG GALE-FORCE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF
THIS MORNING...AND WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
AND INNER WATERS AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BRING
WIDESPREAD GALE-FORCE WINDS TO THESE MARINE AREAS AND WIDESPREAD
RAIN.

DOWN-INLET FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY TODAY. GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EAST-WEST GAPS...BUT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG
AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS DUE TO THE LESS FAVORABLE SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE
ORIENTATION. THIS MEANS ANCHORAGE WILL LARGELY MISS OUT TODAY ON
THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS DAILY OCCURRENCE OF SOUTHEAST WINDS OUT OF
TURNAGAIN ARM. WHILE WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR COASTAL
LOCATIONS THE NEXT FEW PERIODS...THE PRIMARY QUESTION IS HOW MUCH
RAIN MAKES IT OVER THE TYPICALLY RAIN-SHADOWED AREAS OF THE
MATANUSKA VALLEY...ANCHORAGE...AND NORTHERN KENAI...WHERE THERE
HAS BEEN A NOTABLE LACK OF RAIN FOR QUITE SOME TIME AND FOR WHERE
A CONSIDERABLE RISK OF WILDFIRES PERSISTS. THE CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ENABLE FOR SPILLOVER
INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THESE AREAS BEGINNING
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
SOME VERY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN MANY LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...WETTING
RAINS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THESE AREAS.

BY FRIDAY...A WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY...MEANING THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING
THE DAY INTO THE THE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE KENAI
PENINSULA. THE SYSTEM FINALLY EXITS TO THE EASTERN GULF SATURDAY
BRINGING A BRIEF CLEARING TREND GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST UNDER
A TRANSITORY RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE THERMAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE POSITIONED OVER THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA EXTENDING INTO THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TODAY. THIS
SYNOPTIC FEATURE COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL KICK-OFF SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
IN THE BRISTOL BAY REGION LOOK FOR THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE LOCATED MAINLY OVER THE AHKLUN MOUNTAINS. AS A WEATHER FRONT
TRACKS THROUGH THE BRISTOL BAY THIS AFTERNOON THE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL STRENGTHEN RESULTING IN GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
AND GAP WINDS ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE. WHILE THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND THE ALEUTIAN RANGE WILL RECEIVE THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT MOVES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF INTO
THE BRISTOL BAY REGION THIS AFTERNOON. BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA REGION AND A WEAK LOW
FORMS IN THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. THE OTHER CONCERN THIS
MORNING WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG ACCOMPANIED BY LOW STRATUS
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTLINE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED AREAS OF DENSE FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DROPS DOWN OFF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER
FRONT ENTERING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING A SWATH OF MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIED
BY GALE FORCE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. WHILE THE EASTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS
WILL HAVE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS DUE TO
BEING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW POSITIONED NEAR
THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS. IN THE NORTHERN BERING SEA THE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE NORTHERLY WITH LOW STRATUS AND FOG AS WE HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

BEGINNING THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON SUNDAY MORNING...A WEAKENING
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING WILL BE MOVING INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL...REPLACING A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS AND BRINGING AN
END TO SUNNIER AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA. OVER THE
BERING...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE FORMING IN THE VICINITY OF
KAMCHATKA THEN QUICKLY MOVE EAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL BERING THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS PATTERN OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 500 HPA WILL BRING
MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES TO MOST OF SOUTHERN ALASKA
(ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST ALASKA...WITH SOUTHCENTRAL REMAINING
SLIGHTLY DRIER) THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS (AFTER WEEKS OF WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES).

VARIOUS MEMBERS OF THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS
(ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF) CONTINUE TO TRY AND DEPICT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A LARGE BLOCKING HIGH SOMEWHERE OVER OR NEAR ALASKA...BUT THAT
DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO BE DELAYED AS THE ACTIVE NORTH PACIFIC
JET STREAM/TROUGH PATTERN REMAINS MUCH MORE DOMINANT. ANY
POTENTIAL HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN WOULD NOT MANIFEST
ITSELF UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK OR WEEKEND...AND EVEN THAT
SCENARIO IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME AS THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
STRUGGLE (WHICH IS OFTEN THE CASE AT THIS TIME FRAME) WITH WHERE
AND HOW QUICKLY THE HIGHER LATITUDE BLOCK FORMS.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119 120 125 130-132 136-138 150 155 172 174 178 351.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AHSENMACHER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...AHSENMACHER